Member Info for Tobin

This certainly shows clear resolve to finally narrow the discount. And if the discount doesn't narrow there can still be more buybacks, or just repeat the process. The NAV will go up and the discount will eventually narrow. Providing The underlying NAV hold up then a SP growth of 20%+ is on the cards.

And before anyone raises the question, no they do not need to pay a "fake" dividend.

Very good on the geology and prospective targets. So much opportunity here.

Nothing very exciting. The buy back programme seems to have stalled even though the discount is still over 40%.

Would be nice to see the SP push through the £3 mark, though in the end its all about the underlying NAV for the LTH.

I think that's part of the problem, the "wall of cash" is coming but those who look for dividends don't know when or if divs will be paid.

And those who hunt the AIM for the next 10bagger story are not interested it seems.

Both are wrong IMO, the cash will fund a renewed drilling campaign, and the first of those will probably in a few weeks time with Cascadura C .... there is a deep target they never reached. We will have to wait and see if we hear more at the presentation.

My recollection is that TXP will get just over $2/mcf net for gas. At 60mmcf/d that's $40million+/year and then the liquids that is dependent on oil price. So about $50million/ year.

But the plans for cascadura are to have 8 more wells. That would exceed the capacity of the plant and pipeline so initially probably 6 wells and the final wells added as production rates from the initial wells fall.

But in a year or so we should be looking at $150 million/annum from cascadura.

For how long is another question but P2 values are typically conservative, and the first 2 cascadura wells had a deeper target that they didn't get to.... but for many years.

That will give them money for the many other targets they have on the block, the asset swap, and the newly awarded block.

I know I have said this before but PB said years ago when first presenting the Ortoire vision that he thought that there would be oil but he thought that it may need fracking.

It looks like some fracking will be needed to maximise output.

In the meantime the share price is well supported by Cascadura

I have never believed in Chartism, it should be fundamentals that drive the share price but...

TXP has clearly been on a long down trend but finding support at 60p, it recently broke out , retested and then has carried on up.

I know its the old adage that the market is in the short term a voting machine and in the long term a weighing machine but its interesting to see the scales suddenly flip.

I would say that I am not a chartist but arguably if you ever bother to look at a chart at all then you are a chartist even if you deny it... but from the chartist view point there is a classic descending triangle. This would be viewed as a consolidation pattern and you would expect a break out to the upside. First target would be about 63p and second target about 83p.

Trinity in an announcement in April stated they expected the results of the bid round to be announced in May.. well 1w left.

The bid round ran from June last year to the 9th January .

Nothing seems to move fast in Trinidad and the slow pace seems to go to the bureaucracy of government . Its not that they had that many bids .. 16 bids for 8 blocks.

The percentage fill of the barges is very variable, as is the months affected. The guidance they put out was conservative though, likely much better. The variability in the Manaus root is why they are looking at other options. The Manaus route does otherwise have advantages... the oil doesn't have to be thinned with lighter oil for the pipeline which reduces cost and they are paid on delivery which helps cash flow.

I suspect will not make a huge impact but over time will help share price. Ultimately what matters is that they keep making money. I would prefer cash to find a home in new projects rather than dividends and buy backs but it seems they have cash for all.

In reply, on the Manaus route the barges sail in a convoy and then off load to a sea going tanker but the barges are often waiting for the tanker to arrive and then the off loading takes time. The company were looking at a plan to build storage tanks and Manaus to stream line the process. Seems quite a bit of work and expense to me but they are the experts.

Just to clarify over 635,000 barrels of oil shipped in April. A record I believe. https://www.perupetro.com.pe/wps/wcm/connect/corporativo/7318e1ef-aaa2-4c91-8313-7d2090cba5fa/Producci%C3%B3n+l%C3%ADquidos.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&liquidos

Ultimately I don't think it makes much difference if spare cash is returned by buy back or dividend. Indeed I would be happier if they were to use it to expand the company such as prove up and bring on a new field. This will come with time.
Main issue is the oil price.
One advantage now is that they have no debt and cash in hand. If necessary they can defer further capex as their return on a new well is almost like a fracked well with very high initial flow of oil that returns invested cash quickly and then a long tail with very low expenditure.

Re Buy back : At the London meeting the CFO indicated it could be in the order of 10%. There is a limit for simple buy backs, and it has to be of the free float

Hopefully they will put as much as they can into buybacks. If the company is as undervalued as it appears then this will result in the biggest gains in the longer term, especially if held in an ISA or SIPP.

Just a reflection. PB had said in the past that he thought that some of the targets on the block may need to be fracked to show their true potential.
But here, with evidence of sweet crude but low permiability, there was mo mention of fracking. Presumably they must me pretty confident of getting good flow from upper zones….
It still leaves the question if in future they may want to come back and stimulate the wells at Royston with fracking?
Not an expert, just asking the question.

AGM announced but no more buy backs.

Royston flowed before so other zones should flow.
And PB has said before that some targets on this block may need fracking to show their full potential.
And Royston isn’t priced in at these prices anyway.

But to be clear the fall in NAV was all due to FX. Valuation was slightly up.