Member Info for Tobin

I don’t said they they would “pony up” the missing funds (though effectively they did come up with the cash for central) but if you look who they are, and the links with the government (who say they are pro the energy sector) then TXP would be pushed to find a better lender, no??

https://republictt.com/pdfs/annual-reports/RFHL-ANNUAL-REPORT-2024.pdf

Republic bank should be supportive. How many banks have a chairman who was a petroleum engineer?

The government of T+T are heavily “invested” indirectly through some of the biggest shareholders.

https://republictt.com/pdfs/annual-reports/RFHL-ANNUAL-REPORT-2024.pdf

Hopefully with a new government, who appears keen to “energise” the energy sector, that’s a good thing.

Quick Google looks like PB has approximately 2.5million shares, so he’s lost a far bit over the last 4years.

Does that make anyone feel better?

I’m going to restate my previous post.

From the RNS they are not rushing to tie in Cas-5, but waiting to complete Cas-4 but they will do that "When funding is available".

They probably only need $2-3million to complete Cas-4. It’s drilled and cased to 3,200feet, so they are clearly strapped for cash.

But the fact that they are not going to tie in Cas-5 indicates that they company feels they will likely have funds to complete Cas-4 in the very near future.

My hope is that they are waiting for a LNG carrier, filled with gas from central block, to sail. That’s when they get paid.

They are throwing of decent money, the raise was primarily to allow for more drilling this year but some of that will probably have to wait until central block has paid down some of the debt.

Sorry, that should say TXP should get about $80,000/DAY from central block,... $2million+/ month.

G-G-G Interesting point you make.

from the RNS they are not rushing to tie in Cas-5, but waiting for "When funding is available".

These wells produce a lot of gas initially, hence cash, probably a $million/month (PB has spoken of these wells paying for themselves in months)... so why wait? Finishing CAS-4 should "only" cost $2-3million.

The obvious answer is that they are very strapped for cash... BUT expect or hope for more cash very, very soon. That may come from the previous raise, new raise, or loan, or just from income.

Central block should be producing 18mmcf/d. LNG is over $8/mcf, PB indicated that they get the LNG price minus $2/mcf for processing.

Heritage will get 35% of that but still that means $4/mcf+ for TXP, or about $80,000/month before taxes.

But they only get paid when "the boat floats".

Thoughts??

At 5.18 PB talks at being locked into a lower priced contract for the next 16mth. Is this a contract for the CB gas, or the gas from Coho and Casc?

I thought the contract for the gas for Coho and Casc was for longer.

The volume of gas in the Cascadura field is still there. As I understand it it will just take a lot longer for the field to release this gas similar to the CB fields that are still producing significant quantities after 20+ years.

The fact that these wells produce quite a bit more initially helps in that it pays off the developing of the well.

How much gas is there and how much is it likely to be worth at $4-5mmsf ?

This should confirm that CB is going through.

PIs tend not to like raises but it should depend on what it is being used for.

11% discount on 30% is a 3% loss to existing shareholders.

What matters more is that future income will be diluted; but here the potential is to have significantly more future income.

Borrowing looks attractive but the interest rates can be steep and the debt can restrict future capex.

Hopefully this placement will mean more money faster.

The video https://www.investormeetcompany.com/meetings/annual-results-39

pdf https://www.investormeetcompany.com/meeting/interim-results-428/presentation.pdf

As usual they give a background to venture capital

IMO they didn't give a good explanation why over the past 3years the NAV growth has been relatively low. Though 6% annual return is not bad it is less than half the long term NAV growth when the market has not been bad.

The cash out rate has been relatively low and though still positive.

And as a result the buy backs have also been low.

Not much of a tail?

Obviously things have not gone to plan, Cascadura and then Royston. The more rapid fall off in Cascadura flow rate.

BUT the same amount of gas is still in Cascadura than there was before it will just take more time to monitise, maybe more wells but the wells with large initial gas flows do still pay for themselves in 3-4months.

The drilling at Cascadura C helps confirm the size of the reserve (one of my concerns)

There are so many other targets that they will increasingly have the money to drill.

More targets added by successful bid rounds.

The chase of mega targets..

and the clear opportunity to increase the $/mcf from the shell deal.

The Cascadura with the shell deal will likely deliver a Billion $ ... eventually.

There are likely to be more deals. The Trinity deal offered big tax savings. I still would not be surprised if something still comes out of that.

Is this the same company as 2020 when it was at 20p before? No, it is clearly so much more.

The market is a voting machine in the short term and a adding machine in the long term, we all know that.

Buy Low and Sell High.

Price is what you pay, Value is what you get.

Tomorrow I will buy more.

The carbon black has been know for some while. The fact that it can be produced with some 50% silicon oxide and still have a significant market on the basis that it has a low carbon footprint and the silicon actually is helpful for some application does sound like a game changer.

If the vanadium can be produced at truly low cost then then other markets are opened up such as for vanadium flow batteries.

An old video on FAR that I found helpful .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V25WxW_9JKE

An article on the Venezuela project.

The T+T government obviously keen to see it go ahead but considering this project has been on and off for years I dont see it moving ahead any time in the near future.

Has to be good for TXP.

Anyone have alternate view?

https://newsday.co.tt/2025/02/28/dragon-in-doubt-as-trump-trains-guns-on-maduros-energy-deals/

They have been trying to develop these fields for years, the industry on Trinidad is short of gas.

This has to slow down further development and has to be good for TXP

https://www.caribbeantoday.com/sections/business-blog/trinidad-to-hold-talks-with-us-government-on-venezuelan-oil-project

PB in the presentation talks about 10-12wells/year and for 2026 20% of cash being used for 2-3well for exploration.

At $5-6million/well that’s a lot of cash but then the pay back on the wells is very short if they keep delivering a high initial flow.

So in a couple of years a company with 20wells ?

First gas Coho 10th October 2022, nearly 2years after the agreement signed.

The contract was for 5years and was signed in Dec2020 but I think it only started when gas started to flow which was quite a bit later?

Interesting piece.

https://www.guardian.co.tt/business/touchstone-exploration-ceo-lower-taxes-equal-more-investment-6.2.2231981.0ce91612a5