The $230 million is only indicative. Have a look at Hayden’s last interview, link is in a post below.
I fact may be more positive than even it first appears as the indication of funding was in Hayden’s view quite conservative grounds, and maybe more for less, and hopefully less dilution.
As discussed before, and central in this interview, one of the main de-risking milestones was the metallurgical results on the ore.. can the potash ore be processed to easily separate the potash from the salt and the clay. It can.
This really should have really resulted in a significant increase in SP. It didn't.
The feasibility study, what type of mining, what type of equipment to process and the hence the costs still needs to be bottomed.
Also the area of what approvals to build the mine; this wasn't touched on. Is this a risk ? Probably not. Morocco already has very large phosphate mine, the OCP group.
In the interview Hayden mentions that 750,000 tons of potash is already being imported and OCP expect to increase to 2million by 2025. EML are planning 800,000 tons initially. There is obvious opportunity here, and maybe risks??
OCP turnover is 55.9MAD (approximately $5billion)/annum. So its big. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OCP_Group
OCP group is (95% government owned).
Playing with governments is always tricky.
Still looks a very attractive buy.
NAV up 94.7p to 2, 847.6p as of end of July. Great to see. But little response in SP so discount nearly 20%, not so great.
Foreign exchange movement accounted for nearly all of this, which is disappointing as this can so easily be given up again. On the other hand if you think that Brexit will adversely affect sterling then having investments in pantheon that invests primarily in USA and Europe may be attractive.
I too was looking maybe to sell on the rise in share price but has financed at lower cost and the yield still looks attractive especially as I bought in via a VCT and is tax free.
There maybe other areas that have more secure yield such as Assura, with a 4% yield and backed by long leases to doctors backed by government paid rents. So even if NHS stops paying rents the Doctors still have to pay unless they all go bankrupt! Foresight solar yield is more risky.. but only just and is 30% higher! Still seems a reasonable investment in uncertain times.
Clear gradual decline in SP last 3months for no good reason, the news has been quite positive. No shorting activity, no director dealing; so it look like speculative investors who jumped in when was in the press more are jumping out.
Will it fall more? I don’t think so unless general market jitters (that is certainly a possibility) that we saw at the end of last year.
For the long term investors this looks like a good level to buy in or top up.
The trader/speculative investor may want to see it break the down trend. Could be a capitulation sell off, but I don’t think there’s ever been enough “fizz” about this share for that to happen.
Its only good for the share price long term. Interest rate is 9% but rare to back a project like this without a big slice of the potential equity upside because if the down side is bankruptcy then there is little for a lender to recup. They obviously think the prospects of none delivery are very low. Very different to SXX forinstance who are struggling to get funding and every time there is funding it comes with dilution.
This funding of the project will cost cf $20million, but could deliver $40million profits on sales of 200ktpa. Thay gives maybe 7p profit/share. So as others have commented looks fully priced, but when built can be refinanced, increase profit, and opportunity to increase production at less cost... at that makes £2/share very doable in a few years. This has derisked significantly for share holders as the risk of dilution is significantly reduced.
I continue with the view that the US market, especially small cap and tech looks toppy, but then I have felt this for several years and continued to hold PIN. I have sold a few recently but then my holding is a very large portion of my free net worth. I would sell more but the slight recent weakness in price is inconsistent with the weakness in sterling. This should help the NAV against next month. Having some wealth invested outside the UK continues to be a reasonable strategy.
a minor reason for buying, but weakening pound should mean that shares like this that are priced in sterling but will one day make profits in $ should be priced higher in £ terms, hence the ftse rise. Also I dont think its a bad idea to have some of my wealth not just based in the UK.
Bought my first WPCT shares at 54p, but much more heavily today at 45p. Interesting my IG account shows most investors there are long (70%). I would have expected majority being short, (you can always buy the shares if you want to go long).
Discounts in ITs dont usually get bigger than this, and usually represent fear. My usual experience is its a time to buy.
Just spent 2 hours watching Warren Buffett interview, probably has influenced me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pqc56crs56s
on 26 june I wrote that it sounded like there maybe some slippage but this appears not to be the case. They said metallurgical studies would be completed in June with results shortly afterwards.. and here they are (and better than expected).
I do like to see companies that deliver on time, and don't over state. I have increased my holding .
Why has the price fallen??? I can see that recently with the placing at less than the SP then there maybe some looking to make short term gains. This may have pushed the price down to the placing price of 3.75p... but I dont see a reason why the price dropped from 6p to 4p. The underlying economic arguments are good, the mine should relatively easy to develop at relative low cost. There will still be a lot of capital to raise for the mine and plant; and this can lead to dilution.. and they have to get the relevant permissions to do all this.. but there is no evidence that this will not happen.
The market can be remarkably fickle.
Still a strong buy for me; indeed started taking profits of Salt Lake Potash to roll into EML.
Another good month. 6.5% increase in NAV. SP has responded nicely. The US market has done well recently so June may show similar gain. Half of the gain was due currency movements and we have see these given up the following month
Much is invested in the US market, and I have commented for some time that it looks on many measures rather toppy. This remains a concern, which is why I rate PIN as a hold but the long and short term performance of PIN continues to help my portfolio.
The process design engineers to be working on the type of plant needed as a result of the “metallurgical “ results. These were to be completed in June with results shortly after. The rns now says in Q3; which reading between the lines suggests a little slippage.
But still progress.
I agree the scoping study look very promising. There is clear opportunity to develop the other lakes and make more money, hopefully at lower cost on capex and opex.
But there are always risks with projects like this; the question is if the risks/benefits are now reflected in the price.
The shaft sinking at boulby made records, but the emphasis on shaft sinking is very much safety first and I suspect those records will note be broken. But the company has learnt from the boulby experience. Boulby had one shaft sunk through the sherwood sandstone layer that is filled with salt water at very very high pressure.. by freezing ... this shaft flooded and had to be refrozen. The second shaft was grouted and sinking went fine.
The reason was that the sandstone is dense and little water seeped through it, and the issue was cracks in the sandstone. So grouting worked better.
They will be grouting, not freezing.
They learnt a lot.. hopefully.
Not all potash needs deep shafts. I see you sold out of salt lake potash? And there’s Emmerson EML with a shallow resource ... looks attractive enough to already have promise of capital funding at 5% .. very different to SXX. SXX still has the possibility to sell everything it mines which if it gets a good price should still give a good return. But I think spreading ones risk looks appropriate. Thoughts?