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Should be a “red letter day” as the NAV passes £5/share for the first time ( or second time if you consider the 1-10 split).

The NAV made 492p though back in sept 2022 and some of the NAV gain has been from share buy backs which means the underlying valuation hasn’t done much in over 2years.

An interesting overview of the conjugate discoveries of Africa and South America.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smgvg8cTlTE

Interesting that the SP has been bouncing around 6p for months and then has risen 30% on no real news.

I consider it under-priced for the potential it has, but that's the market for you.

Never really believed in Chartism but we are all human and we all watch the charts.

I suspect that from a chartist perspective we should see the price pull back and retest the previous range. If retests 7p and stays above 6.5p that would be a good chart position to play.

From a fundamentals position the argument that the company has $12.5million cash from the farm out to a global supermajor who is committed to 3d, and probably a well should value the company at $40million+ is imo a reasonable argument. It looks reasonable bet. The value of the potential upside, and the potential of OFF-3 are not priced in at all.

But you just don't want to bet the house on it.

This was discussed in a recent video interview, the recommitment by the lender, a bank in T+T, comes annually and is in January. PB was clear it was a formality; they have good relationship with the bank. He did talk of trying to get the banks and the firms financial timelines the same but they hadn't managed to do this hence the statement. Or something like that.

AIM stocks often rise more on “the story”. That could well happen here if targets are found, then a well is spud.

It sounds like the experience that the company has gained and the way that they can reprocess seismic will give them targets in the central block. With spare capacity, pipeline and better prices it is logical that they will focus further development and exploration there.

I agree re TRIN, it may not be totally dead. Arguably the tax loss was the real "asset". I think there is a possibility of some of TRINs assets being spun out and the remainder picked up by TXP sometime in the future??

So basic math.

Net share of field production to TXP is 65% of 18mmcf/d. of 12mmcf/s (also 2,080 boe/d x6).

At $2.50 that is $30,000/d or $10 million/year. But could be twice that given what PB said about LNG prices?

Then there is the plant and development opportunities.

We do not know the decline rates on the wells but its slow, they have been producing for 20years.

Simple maths gives indication just how undervalued TXP is. Will have to wait for presentation to see how the funding stacks up with capital commitments.

And interesting how markets will respond.

“That be as it may they still discus that with new wells the output will be in the order of 16-17,000 boepd.” Read 14-17,000boepd

There’s a long resume on the other site, advf#

Malcy interview helpful. Malcy discusses decline levelling off.

Also discuss the gas price, PB clearly thinks it’s too low and discusses possiblities of increasing production but also questions the merits of this when he feels he can get more for the gas in future.

That be as it may they still discus that with new wells the output will be in the order of 16-17,000 boepd.

Even on current price that should net back ? $60million/year?

That’s nearly its current market cap. And these wells will flow for years and years.

Page 15 of November presentation looks like decline rate is flattening off imo.

Market cap is now some £50million,

Cascadua produced cf $29million net back in first year, and new wells on cascadura C cost some $6million.

These wells have seen marked reduction in output but have levelled off.

The reserves are some 0.5tcf, even at $2/mcf that is a lot of $$.

And there are over 20 other targets.

Even targets such as Royston are not dry wells with evidence of oil from the cretaceous, and we now know that there is oil and not just gas on there block, and they have acquired new blocks.

Methanex is the worlds largest producer of methanol and they have 2 plants on T&T, only one is running for want of NG, and these plants are expensive.

They make good money with NG at $4-5/mcf. Henry hub forward price prediction is about $4/mcf. There is a strong argument that TXP could get significantly more for its gas than the current contract.

It is somewhat surprising though that the SP hasn't moved with the recent RNS.

CEG remains a high risk play, or does it?

There is a lot of potential upside here, and for £12million market cap, with now $12.5 million cash in the bank I think there is a good argument that CEG is undervalued.

Ptal have an advantage in that new wells pump out very high levels of oil that pay for the cost of the well very quickly. And with cash in hand they do not have to drill new wells and sell at a low price and have the money to develop new blocks or pick up now blocks as they have just done and wait for the upturn,.

Obviously not drilling new wells delays return but a general slow down in the world economies is likely to hurt others more.

I think they need to show investors what they have learnt from the declines at Cascadura and Coho and more importantly do they have an answer?

They could drill more wells, they could drill horizontal wells or they could stimulate, probably fracking.

I recall seeing an early presentation by PB when he thought wells drilled in this area may need to be fracked.

The asset swap has gone through so the reserve should go up significantly but investors need to see how it can be monetised and the rate of return for capital expenditure.

For what it is worth the markets do not seem to be pricing in the TRIN counter bid, it remains at approximately 1.5x txp