Member Info for tmnky

Stupmy

I don't know anything about manipulation either but we have been here before in the UK market where 'old economy' was out of favour.

Back in the late nineties there was a highly respected fund manager called Tony Dye. He ran one of the UK's large pension funds.

As the dot com bubble inflated, he refused to put his funds money into overvalued tech stocks. Of course he under performed going from one of the best to one of the worst. But he was adamant. The 'best' tech companies were overvalued and then there were those with no income never mind earnings.

I seem to remember he lost his job a matter of weeks before the crash started.

Now imagine you are a fund manager today. FTSE 100 and explain why you are a few percent better than cash or join the herd chasing Nvidia et al for massive gains. Even the S&P 500 for 20-30% YTD.

But it will likely change just as before.

Correction not sales but notification by EIG

How time flies.

The distribution by EIG was way back in July 2022. They reduced their holding by about 20% of which 8.66% to Noble and 4.175% to Helmsley Charitable Trust who soon dropped below 3%. Noble it seems sold out according to an RNS of 14/9/23. What is interesting is BOA started with the swaps in July 2022 just after the distribution. Whether there is any connection I cannot know.

But thinking about it, when shares are sold above the threshold there will be an RNS. The only large sales lately were EIG.

If I have time, I'll try to look at the numbers involved. Should have done that instead of watching the 'football' last night. DOH!

Some time ago, EIG split off some HBR shares for two large partners. I don't know why but it is not unreasonable to expect they might have wanted to sell at some point. One of those partners was likely Noble Group who had got themselves into a bit of a mess and after a couple of restructurings were beholden to their debtors.

Periodically now we get BOA declaring an interest in HBR via swaps. Then over subsequent days those swaps reduce. What is that? A loan whereby the counterparty gradually unwinds, or a gradual sale of shares rather than a large dump on the market?

While I have no proof, it's quite possible that one or both of the two large EIG partners have been selling. Add that to ESG, windfall taxes and general sector and regional bias, I can see why the share price is suppressed.

NewKOTB

I believe these poor performance periods are very much to do with BOA.

I'm afraid I don't have time to put my thoughts down right now, but I will try to do something overnight.

Trek, Clued,

I don't know if it is still the case, but I seem to remember some years ago reading that SETS orders could be set to only accept full execution rather than partial execution.

A few times on less liquid shares, I put limit orders slightly higher than the ask and still waited hours for a fill.

Maybe some expert can confirm.

Sittingduck11

You hit the nail on the head.

If people are getting angry at a falling share price then they are either too concentrated or too short term.

The UK rewards the patient with good dividends and opportunities when prices fall to great value.

For shorter timescales, there's the Nasdaq!

It seems to be available on Trading 212.

If you have a friend who has an account get them to give you a referral code and you'll both get a free share when you open an account and fund it.

If not, give me a heads up and I'll be happy to refer you myself.

Quite right genghis15. I read through the last finals and the recent ts again and there is nothing new that I can see.

I can understand that they would be tight lipped during the sale process but as Oak says, where is the discount?

EMIC-1? Sure, Red Sea is a potential delay/loss, but that comes nowhere near even were it to be a total write-off.

The whole thing is odd.

The big reduction in Verne earn out. Odd.

The big reduction in NAV. Odd.

Not even going to think about Arqiva until the rest is done. Odd.

Yes ISAman, the figures you quote are only those for the LSE. They actually buy across 5 venues. But that doesn't matter. I think your idea aligns with mine.

Originally the sp was falling quite quickly suggesting that there were sellers. As the buyback started, perhaps it acted as a base for those sales, hence the tight range. Hopefully the sellers have sold and we'll see a more normal ranging as the buybacks complete.

I certainly hope so. Trading profits usually exceed the divs here.

I did a quick calculation and it looks like around 84 million shares so maybe near finished depending on prices paid.

It was intended to complete in December.

I haven't been keeping track but usually there would be an rns on completion.

Lgen has been one of my favourite trading shares over many years. But this 'going nowhere' effect started as the new buybacks commenced on the 13th June after the fall from 255ish to 225ish.

I wonder if the buyback is having this effect.

"Mr Market

Please can we have 400 back !!"

Yes, but please can we have 350 first.

And while you are at it please can I have BATS at 2300 again and BT for a quid. Because I love 40 to 50% gains on undervalued companies who pay me a good dividend while I wait.

Haha fog, you could be right but I bet those who have an average above 500 are not too happy.

The great thing about BP of course it is a great share to add at the lows and trim at the highs. Even ignoring the doubling from COVID lows back above 400, looking at the last two years there have been 3 opportunities to make 10-20% with a fourth about to start, I hope.

Ah yes I was aware of that and my comment was a bit tongue in cheek.

I should have added that for UK traders removing the fx effect is not needed as often there is a bigger % swing in sterling shares, as we just saw, and an opportunity to make on the fx after a sale.

Meoryou, that is one area where I really like BP's foray into clean energy. Battery storage is essential for solar.

Unfortunately, it suffers from the same transmission limitations as wind etc.

Add to that the report a week ago that National Grid's computer systems were outdated and not knowing what capacity was available from BESS, often ignored it.

We really need to get on top of this fast. Luckily I believe Ed Miliband will be in charge of ESO soon, I believe.🙃

Y11, not sure where you get your records from but from my records on 22/09/23 BP closed at 525.7 which makes it about a 22% drop ...