Member Info for tmnky

Without

That's simply not true.

It was in November 2023 that Petroineos, a private company, announced that they would be closing the Grange mouth refinery. The reasons given were falling demand and that they couldn't compete with larger refineries abroad. The closure is ongoing.

I also checked and there is no way they could process all the North Sea oil.

I also checked and it is true that over the years we have exported the majority of our oil and imported similar amounts.

Temple_of_Doom

I believe DGI9's absurd assumptions were very wrong, maybe even wrongdoing, and I hope a proper investigation takes place. Of course that reinforces the importance of being sceptical but I feel that that was one of only a few in that category. I could of course be wrong on that.

As regards TRIG, I have long been less than happy about the structure of these funds, a number of which I hold, and the multi layers but I believe that previously there was no pressure to be efficient and it is not necessarily a reflection on the calculation of NAV as much as the market dynamics. I guess we will find out at some point.

I agree entirely with your last paragraph, I always laugh when good results from one in a sector boosts all. Man, they just took some of your market share. No?

"With this amount of saving the question is why have they not done this before"

Not sure if that was a rhetorical question but the obvious answer is that weren't under pressure before.

When trading at a premium, chucking off 5 to 6% divis in a zirp environment and growing as well, money for old rope! Sit back and let the managers do the work, reap the reward.

Egremont

I'll bet he does know! He's no stranger to twisting the truth to make a bogus point.

I also wish Tice had not interrupted and let him explain why US gas is cheaper. Would have made his point for him.

Withoutt

I'm sure someone more knowledgeable than me can elaborate but oil ranges from sweet to sour (sulphur content). It goes to wherever the refineries can use it. I don't know if it is still the case but we used to export the majority of NS oil so world markets and pricing are probably hard to avoid.

I believe we use the majority of NS gas so either through legislation or some form of contract there might be a way. Such as how Biden banned new LNG export facilities, I think.

CEO Murray Auchincloss said last month during BP's capital markets day that "if somebody wants to come and make a knockout bid on 25% of Kaskida, we're open to it, but it has to be for value."

Maybe he thinks he can get someone to overpay for it.

Cynical me thinks this is just some journo had to make his word count for the month. We'll see.

"BP weighs stake sales in two Gulf of Mexico projects, sources say"

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bp-weighs-stake-sales-two-gulf-mexico-projects-sources-say-2025-03-26/

On reading it again, I think they crossed below the 5% and did not declare that correctly.

Just a mistake. My cynical meter misread it perhaps.

So yes, poor performance but not a big thing for me.

BadNewInvestor

I'm not sure the argument adds up.

So unaware of the 'extra shares' they under reported 'their share'?

It's late, got to give it more thought. Maybe.

Ramji

It's not for me to recommend anything but I can mention a few things you might like to go and research.

In the healthcare space, you'll know of PHP and there is also THRL. CRT are under offer so probably not much value left now.

In general though many infrastructure funds including alternative energy are at significant discount to NAVs and decent dividend yields as a result of share prices falling. Have a look at the chat on UKW, there was an interesting exchange of views recently. TRIG is another. Then there are the solar funds.

There is no guarantee that prices won't fall further so I'm sure you would want to assure yourself about their business models and prospects. The chat on those boards might be helpful too.

Best of luck

Matt

Indeed it does strengthen your argument and I took have moved on.

Plenty of value in the UK market right now.

Good luck.

Ramji

Yes. I should have put 'proposed' cash offer. Which the board "would be minded to recommend" if it becomes a firm offer, according to the RNS of 10th March.

Matt

Just for clarity, the cash offer is 48.56p.

The fake imho make up to 49.4p is the 0.84p dividend. You know, our share of our profits. Ex dividend since 6/3 so I don't know how there is any pretence that this is KKRs to offer.

I'm open to persuasion that I'm mistaken in that opinion.

BadNewInvestor

Yes, Net Tangible Assets. That was how the AGR RNS referred to the PHP offer too so I thought it ok.

I have read the RNS a few times now and each time I get more of an impression of them clearly promoting the deal. Why?

When they refer to the PHP offer as 43p, I almost feel as if it is a misrepresentation. While the share price values PHP lower, the shares offered are of course representative of the NTA of PHP. I guess it means someone wants out, as was reported around the time of the first offer of 48p.

My average buy is around 47p so no big deal as a tiny uplift plus I've had the divis along the way. I'll be disappointed though if they get the shares for NTA including the Divi already earned for the last quarter! That's a discount in my book. Also as cruncher1 pointed out earlier today, we might miss out on the next Divi too!

I should have corrected my error as it should have read 0.56p not 0.16p. As far as I am concerned after ex-div date that dividend should not be counted as an increase in the offer.

I also hold PHP and the only way I could see a fair all share offer or merger would be on the basis of NTAs.

"I guess the board is recommending KKR offer as PHP have only valued it at 43p."

PHP did not 'value' it at all. As I read it they proposed a merger based on NTAs.

The 43p quoted is part of the propaganda put out to persuade you to part with your shares at the bottom of the market!

"Pursuant to the Possible Cash Offer, Assura shareholders would retain the declared quarterly dividend of 0.84 pence per share which is due to be paid to Assura shareholders on 9 April 2025 and receive cash consideration of 48.56 pence per share at closing."

So the offer includes the dividend you already earned. Twisted!

I wonder what 'persuaded' the board to recommend the offer of 0.16p more.

If they had recently bought in around 40p or so, they might well be agitating for an immediate uplift.

It would be nice to know how much they paid.

As for KKR, I feel a small discount to NAV combined with a possible infection area for interest rates is very much opportunistic. The NAV could well improve and the discount narrow from here.

It's not as if Assura is the only share trading at a large discount and with a very good yield. It's a strange market these days.

Trek

You have hit the nail on the head with "make some nibbles ... and stay in touch".

Even more important for me is to keep one's average reasonably below NAV for protection in the event of a discontinuation vote or an offer.

I have all too many of these funds/trusts/reits to risk being taken out too cheaply.

DividendNomad

I was actually agreeing with your 'pie and eat it'.

I guess my attempt at a slightly sarcastic analogy was too clumsy.

I do though have sympathy for those who did their research and bought LGEN for the generous dividend with 5% annual increase. Only to find it reduced to 2%. If they bought at a higher price, they might feel hard done by and maybe somewhat trapped.