Member Info for timbo87

I just don't feel like this is going to move for a while, so I'm out. Will be back in at some point.

There are two types of management in this situation. The ones that can get a company out of it's hole, who have a serious plan that looks solid, and people who are just holding a job, either hoping things get better or waiting to get pensioned off.

I've learned from this and CROX that I should watch/listen to more of these earnings calls. You get a sense of the energy of senior management. Are they serious and confident about their plan? Can they present something convincing about the future? I got a lot of positive words from DOCS but the tone/presentation suggested they didn't believe in it and are just hoping it will work.

This is another Disney for me now. Management needs clearing out. I won't invest before then.

Even if that takes a while, there's a dividend of nearly 3% per QUARTER on it.

"People will still fly with easyjet no matter the reviews, if they want a little bit more than pay more."

This is the thing, though. They don't. They keep using, and keep moaning. Like every bit of media is obsessed with how bad the complaints are at Wizz, but their aircraft are as full as ever. They carry millions more people per year than 4 years ago. Most people won't trade money for time, unless they're doing a business trip.

So 25% of people think they'll go abroad between October 19th and Jan 19th 2024. So, what's the normal percentage of people who take a holiday during that period? Anyone?

People say all sorts of things in surveys, especially if it's about something they aren't doing. They might be half-divided between "couldn't be bothered" and "cost of living crisis" and chosen the latter. They might not have liked one of the answers and just clicked one. I don't really trust surveys as they aren't hard data. Personally, my aim with YouGov surveys is to get through it as fast as possible to get my points.

The best data I can find so far is that Wizz have something like 92% load factor for September 2023, compared to 94.5% for September 2019. So, maybe demand is down a little. But without a comparison. And Michael O'Leary is cautious about winter demand, but doesn't go into depth on it.

So, anyone?

IHG Group who own Holiday Inn are reporting that room occupancy is at 72%, 1% lower than 2019. Growth in revenue per room (REVPAR). Of course, their share price is down this morning!

https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/tourism/holiday-inn-parent-ihg-reports-near-recovery-of-pre-covid-demand

"Let's hope that macro/geo-political events don't derail that."

The thing I realised with stocks is that there's a lot of people who don't analyse, they just follow a herd up or down. And they look for +ve or -ve arguments about it. Like the flipside is people coming up with fanciful arguments about TSLA and NVDA without looking at the negative risks to those companies.

I don't see any real risk of geopolitical trouble and I think the risk/effect of a recession is already priced in. I also think many people don't get how recessions are not uniform. I don't think many families want to cut their summer holiday out, over many other things.

This is the thing. Look at indicators from Wizz, WHSmith and others in the holiday business. Nothing looks bad. And I have a view that most people prioritise their summer holidays over other things (like new cars or gadgets).

Looking at the price today, it seems to be levelling. I wish I had more to invest in EZY at this point.

People just get into a mindset about certain stocks/type of stocks. They're following a herd, not hard data or any insight about a stock.

You can see the reverse of this with AI stocks. The media is full of people banging on about AI. Most of them haven't the first clue about it. It's just smart-sounding gossip. And they have wild levels of optimism about how big they're going to go.

In both cases, emotional sentiment more powerful than facts. But eventually facts will prevail. It can mean that positive data doesn't have an impact immediately, but does eventually.

The thing I've learned with stocks is that there's a lot of people who just have an upper or a downer about a particular sector. You get a lot of stuff in the press talking a sector up or down. Like, here's all the risks to the travel business (most of which are overblown).

Every indicator is that the market is good in travel. Not just Easyjet, but from Wizzair or WH Smith. At some point the press will turn it around and money will pile in.

I'm not sure about Tui, because my observation is more people switching from packages to putting together flights and hotels, but I feel the whole sector is underpriced.

Like Wizz publish how full their aircraft are, and it's very good. WH Smith made a good profit, and most of that business is about travel shops (and their stock didn't move much on it).

There are potential risks. A recession, wars hitting oil prices, cost of living but I think it's exaggerated. I think the effects of those are priced in as if they've happened.