Member Info for timbo87

I looked into this for a small bus company. Google have a specific set of APIs where bus companies can send timetables and the status of buses. They aren't interacting with the vehicle directly.

"The only thing that has materially changed over the last month is the election announcement, which JC has articulated the negativity surrounding it. That said, I don’t think labour are quite at the levels of socialism yet where the commissars will roll in and commandeer the trains. I would highly suspect it would start as a sovereign wealth fund."

Most of our politics is like the WWE. It's a show, it's someone making a speech, but none of them really care about doing much nowadays. In terms of coach travel in the UK, I doubt it'll be affected at all. The main change might be more cities running their own buses, but they'll still subcontract it to a company to run it like First, Mobico, Stagecoach.

I don't think it'll be blue today. But I think 3-4 days, it might well be. I've already covered costs/spread of my topup today. I don't ask more than that on day 1. If I can make 6% in a week, that's a very good week.

To all the people who dumped their stock in a panic after seeing the word "loss". Bought more at 498, already at 509.

EZY isn't going "to the moon" but every part of the results look pretty good to me. I would sell my house and buy more if my wife would let me ;-)

The market is full of sheep who are following all sorts of flawed perspectives. Like everyone is jumping all over AI because it's being hyped. 6 months from now, the growth might stop and the whole thing will crash. The price of a stock is real price +- sentiment. And at the moment, stocks in airlines have a negative sentiment that is still a hangover from Covid.

The only questions are this: do you think the results are good and do you think it's a company with a future? Personally, everything about these results looks pretty good to me. There's some decent growth. It has a P/E of 12.

It sounds like you were unlucky as to when you got in. 2020 would have been really high price compared to now, I guess. But those losses are gone. All that matters is whether its a good price today.

To me, this is what I want to hold. Negative sentiment will always unwind with good results. Eventually people will recognise the value and buy in. Will it hit 2020 anytime soon? I don't know, but that's the wrong calculation at this point. The only calculation is how much better it can go than now.

"The candidate stated he wants Birmingham bus services to go into public control.

Of course, he is looking for votes .... "public control" always sound nice ..... wait until they find out what that means and what it costs to keep a fantasy route system that wants high wages and low bus price tickets"

The thing is that they still won't *really* be in public control. The average politician doesn't want to be doing the day-to-do operational management. They know that putting their useless mates in charge of buying buses or hiring drivers will mean the service will collapse, so they won't do that. But what they will do is dictate a lot of wasteful activity.

And this is an opportunity, because the politicians will want all sorts of headline-grabbing rubbish, they'll want to indulge their pet interests (like electric buses), they'll gold plate it all. They'll bow to the pressure to keep buses running for little old ladies, even though only 3 of them use the bus. Whoever gets these contracts is going to make a bundle of money.

People are still panicky about anything about airlines. I'm going to sell about half of my holding at 2300 and if it crashes again, I'll buy back in.

JG68,

The whole reason that I bought into NEX, my whole hypothesis about the future of transport, is that rail is in a death spiral. Losing money from Covid means a large cut of income, so less money for infrastructure, or to subsidise rural services, and it's going to get cut, and coach travel will eventually replace many trains.

The RMT and ASLEF have really helped with this too. Going on strike and demanding huge pay rises and no job cuts. Destroying a lot of confidence in rail travel. Like, personally, I just use NEX if I have to go to an event in London now, in case the railways go on strike.

"When you consider the running costs (fuel, maintenance, fleet renewal, staff wages, driver relocations etc) compared with the fares (I recently did Cornwall to London for about a tenner), I don't know how they make a profit."

You can call up a local coach hire company and get a quote and see how much it costs. Many years ago I remember hiring a coach to go to a brewery and even though we only had about 15 people, it felt quite cheap.

I don't know what it's like now, but my guess is that NEX runs a lot of barely profitable trips at certain times, but there are other times where I think they're making out like gangbusters.

It's also worth noting that coach efficiency isn't in the same universe as train inefficiency. The cost of trains, track, staff for trains that often aren't even 1/4 full.

It's good marketing, too. I became a convert to coach because of the strikes. Only taking the coach did I realise how much cheaper they were, and using them, they did the job well. For most of my leisure trips I take the coach now.

Has anyone factored in what effect the rail strikes have on the price? Personally, if I have tickets for an event more than a fortnight away, I'm now booking on National Express at the same time. Takes a little longer than the train, but I know it's going to run.

And in general (and why I got into Mobico in the first place) I feel like rail is in a death spiral. Declining revenue leads to more strikes, lead to declining revenue.

Thank you.

People losing their nerve. Understandable to be a little nervous, but the price drop seems excessive to me. I'm going to sit back and watch it keep falling, and probably pick up some more if it goes below 65.

Do you have a link to the Cosmens adding shares? Not questioning honestly, just looking for details.

"Delayed results not ideal but at least we know what the adjusted profits will look like."

This is the big thing for me. The closer a forecast is to the date, the closer it is to reality. I bought more yesterday, partly because of how cheap but also that I feel more confident.

Delayed results and a £5-7m/year hit are a big nothing. Normal panic selling on bad news.

Yes. A few million per year is nothing to get too emotional about, but the market did. I picked some up at 69, then 72 and then 79.

Anyone have any explanations for recent volatility?

Thanks. I'm also an investor in SMWH and as an aside, I cannot fathom why the shares fell 2% on this. But I think I'll get some more before close of day.

How do you do that here?

Can I ask a question? Are the Wizz flights holiday makers, or mostly people doing trips to see family, did you know? I saw a presentation that suggested they were heavily about family trips rather than holidays.