Member Info for timbo87

There was something on the BBC website about Hezbollah and Israel considering this particular spat as "over".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gv4zede8jo

"“We reserve our right to continue the response at a later point, but for now, the people can be at ease and carry on with their lives,” said Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah."

My shares in Energean (Israeli gas platform) are up 4% today.

MaryBr190,

Don't jink it! ;-)

Causal,

Yes. Around 4%. US airline stocks down around 1-2%.

"You don’t make a career on the sell-side on predicting 5y out and it shows."

Sell-side analysts are incentivised by creating trading research, not performance. If they get it badly wrong, no money is lost.

"Punctuality is not but then again compare that to the competition and that is not good either."

The difference is largely irrelevant. 31 minutes vs 22 minutes on BA, 22 minutes on Easyjet, 19 minutes on Ryanair. You're flying off to see Granny in Romania for week, do you really care that much about getting there 31 minutes late? How much is this a factor vs things like price, where the airport is and so forth? Ryanair are quicker but I'd rather fly from Gatwick or Bristol as they're closer.

No worries, Robbren.

My take on any financial prediction is that you should be able to explain it. Analysts throwing numbers around is meaningless without an explanation of how they get there.

Robbren,

It's in the article you posted, citing that that is Lobbenberg's target price.

Robbren,

On 2nd August 2024, Andrew Lobbenberg reiterated a sell rating and a target price of £16. What has changed since 2nd August 2024, in terms of factual information, that would change that to £10? We've had Varadi and Blackrock increasing their stake. That should make little difference to the target price of the stock.

https://www.tipranks.com/news/blurbs/barclays-keeps-their-sell-rating-on-wizz-air-holdings-wizz-2?mod=mw_quote_news

Robbren,

They warned about the S&P problem in June, including the number of aircraft. Why couldn't they do the sums on that too? And how come the sums then were showing as £19.50 and now £10?

And the point is that there are lots of analysts doing their sums in various ways. Go and look up how many analysts saw the crash of Bear Stearns back in 2008. The number was zero.

Andrew Lobbenberg is now expecting a further profits warning and a target price of £10? How does he figure that? He was giving a price of £19.50 in late June. Clearly he couldn't figure out the P&W effect then, so why can he get it right now?

Not saying he might not be right and it will fall to £10, but go look on TipRanks at the variety of analyst predictions for stocks. Wizz was everything between £1.90 and £5.

I don't see it as risk-free, but I think people have gone into panic mode since Q1. To me, the only thing bad in there was the P&W situation. I sat in on the earnings call and feel confident about the future. The falls since then are just mood. There's no data to justify most of the 42% fall in the past month.

It depends on the place and time. Hotel prices will rise closer to the date if there's a shortage but if there's a glut of rooms, they'll drop the prices to clear them. I've stayed at fancy hotels because I needed a room that day and they had plenty of space.

Also, there are people who don't need a hotel. Like I have friends in Portugal and Spain who could put me up.

StockFlow - very grateful. I thought I had deep levels of understanding of Wizz, but I doff my cap to you.

There was a fall in both Easyjet and Wizz at about the same time yesterday. I presume people getting panicky about war. By any measure, the effect of no flights to the Middle East is now more than priced in. This is just people following the herd down. I reckon someone out there is just sitting waiting for this to run out of steam and are going to make a fortune (not me, unfortunately).

Is this why the price of a few airlines took a dip? Because people think there's going to be a long-term war? I'll grab a few more EZJ if that's the case.

So, do you think the cost of wet leases are well-priced into the guidance, or missing something? What's your general feeling with the company for the next few years? I like the company and I think the Eastern European market has a lot of potential.

I can't see any particular Wizz news. Someone adding to shorts? Fears about Israel?

Anyone?

I should clarify - I only think 1600 is a possibility in a few weeks. I think around 1500 is more likely. I think 2000 is some way off though.

I think you're being optimistic. £16 in a week or two sounds possible but I think £20 might take until past the next quarter results

" War in the Middle East"

War in the Middle East is extremely unlikely. The media are constantly talking this up, when it's really just about Iranian proxies doing things for Iranian propaganda purposes. Hamas and Hezbollah are both being paid by Iran to do this to allow Iran to gain more influence.

It puts a few Wizz routes at risk, temporarily. It's far down the potential risks that I see to Wizz.