Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Ruthenium has just hit $400/oz (JMAT prices); which means it has ten-bagged over the last four years. I just thought this humblest of the PGMs should have its day in the sun.
Rhodium has now flattened out at $26,200/oz, and as far as I'm concerned, it can take a rest there for as long as it likes. Iridium still $6,000/oz and palladium reverting to back over $2,500/oz. Gold is still showing signs of weakness (US long end bond yields increasing), but it isn't dragging platinum down too much.
So basket price very healthy.
I hope nobody is offended by bringing up another company on this board. FWIW, this is exactly how I first came across Tharisa. My take on it is that together we possess a great deal of knowledge, and that sharing it freely is in all our interests.

Hi Craig!
I can't believe that.
Stoodio is right - the next quarterlies are login to be outstanding - even astounding.
And you don't need a PhD in maths to work that out.

Well, I'm buying. I just got 103.5p and 104p for two purchases. Incredible!

Hi DropInMonkey!
IMO, this isn't the season to be owning any gold miners.
What happens to gold when the yield on US 10 year bonds hits 2%, which it looks like it will? The Fed shows no sign of implementing Yield Curve Control anytime soon.
"Something" needs to happen before gold becomes a good investment again. I'm not sure what that "something" is - inflation taking off for real, the stock market crashing under pressure from the rise in bond yields, some geopolitical event etc. - but it might not be good news!

Hi Dartron!
So would I! But why not ask?

Hi Toptiger!
I'm still trying to get my head round Eastplats and whether their whole business is viable - their documentation is not a simple read.
They produce (in partnership with others) chrome concentrate from existing UG2 ore tailings, and they have just started to produce PGMs. You can work out that the grade of the tailings is 1.234 g/t 4E PGM content, with a high rhodium content of 13.8%. No number for the number of ounces to be produced, however. Offtaker is Impala. They have plans to radically increase production of PGMs later this year, but again no production guidance. "Mine life" for the tailings appears to be short - only 4 years. After that, they propose re-opening an old mine.
The last quarter is still loss-making, but things must be looking better now considering the increase in chrome prices. However, the proposed chrome tax (if it happens) would hit them hard. Market cap still very low.
Of course, the hope would be to find another SLP from when SLP was trading at 8p. But I'm not sure I've found it here! I'll keep working on this one.

IMO, it's important to remember the small scale of the River Pipe - there are buildings which have larger and deeper foundations than this potential mine. Also, remember that there is existing diamond processing plant nearby.
This isn't Solgold's Alpala, which is buried deep in the earth and requires simply massive capex. I reckon they could get up trial mining (which is really mining, considering the small scale here) by the end of this year if the next drill results confirm what we are all guessing at.

Thanks for pointing that out, Merrywep. I will ask a couple of questions, but they will be about the rise in costs and the security situation in Mali.
Gonka is a sideshow; it can wait.

It's a good RNS. The drill results from SE have consistently been the best news that HUM has announced to the market over the last year or so.
But it doesn't alter the fact that HUM's mining costs have increased dramatically, just as the price of gold is falling back and gold mining stocks are falling out of fashion. So I wouldn't expect the share price to respond much as I'm expecting the next quarterlies (and the one after that) to be poor.
On a side note, does anybody understand what the problem is with Gonka? The grades have always looked enticing, but the company keeps putting off developing it. Is the strip ratio very high? Or the gold contained difficult to extract? Or what?

Hi Sotolo!
Just to be a pedant - 22t of PGMs is about 710,000 troy ounces of lost production.
FWIW, I'm not 100% convinced by the "all is well" line that NorNickel is selling. Time will tell.

You're right - I am assuming there is no unexpected good news to break the vicious cycle of share issue and dropping share price. That's how it usually goes, and assuming the worst has proven a pretty good strategy when it comes to Vast in the past. But I could be wrong.
There are a ton of small mining companies on AIM. And one of their standard plays is to buy an old mine out of bankruptcy and claim it will be fantastically profitable when they put it back into operation. Overall, in my experience, this strategy doesn't have a high success rate.

Hi Barrelsandbonds!
This is mining. It's hard. And there is always risk. Especially with a single mine operation - all eggs in one basket, etc...
Can they get production back up to $1,350/t per day? Can they get the average mined grade up? How long will it take to achieve break-even on current mining operations? How long will it take to get an ore sorter installed (this will make a big difference to the mine's economics)? Etcetera...
Don't get me wrong - this should all be achievable. But it's not achieved until it's achieved.
I suppose you could also say that there is a risk that copper prices may come down, but I just don't see that happening.
Risk / reward here is good. But RMM is not a slam-dunk surefire winner. Things could go wrong...

I've been digging around for future investment options...
Does anybody know much about EastPlats (Eastern Platinum) (TSX:ELR)? All background information greatly appreciated.
It's a UG2 ore chrome tailings reprocesser which is just developing a PGM concentrate line. I'd call it a turnaround stock. Its market cap is only $50m CAD.
Eastplats.com
www.kitco.com/news/2021-03-26/Eastern-Platinum-reports-8-million-net-loss-in-2020.html

Hi JamesJohn!
"Death spiral" loans are convertible loans issued to companies without the resources to pay them back.
What happens usually is the loan is converted into shares in steps (tranches). These are sold off into the market, causing the share price to drop. Thus, the next tranche of the loan is converted into shares at a lower share price, which means more shares have to be issued. These are also dumped into the market, lowering the share price again. This causes a snowball effect - more and more shares are issued and sold at a lower and lower price as tranche after tranche of the loan is converted.
Some companies survive this experience, some don't. It's almost always brutal for shareholders. That's why I wrote that it's better to wait this process out.
As for production, your guess is as good as mine.
I hope that helps!

I know less about copper than PGMs, though I share the general optimism about copper prices for the next decade (growing demand from urbanisation and electrification of the entire world, EVs, and constricted supply).
And I don't consider this company entirely without risk.
But the hope must be that over a three year period the new CEO can turn this mine around, in which case this can become a ten bagger. I certainly hope that the share price will be double today's, maybe treble, in a years' time.
Not sure about the short term; there are still shares to be sold off (or maybe not sold off) after the debt for equity swap. It's hard to judge.
As for Hope2Gain - well, I'm embarrassed for you.

I should add that I have made a lot of money from SLP and THS and Anglo-American and various PGM ETFs, so this tiger has fed well over the last year and he is more inclined to nap in the sun than go on the prowl.
But do you really believe the crazy valuations of the assets thrown around on the the EUA bulletin board? EUA's assets are worth $50m to $100m tops - on a good day, if there is a buyer. If a CEO of a major paid much more than that for them I'd expect him to be dismissed by an open rebellion from the shareholders within days. And as I know well the CEOs of two of the companies most often mentioned as buyers on the EUA board, I can almost guarantee to you that won't be happening.
No, udachi!

Yep. That's how it goes sometimes.
AIM is stone cold crazy.

Hi Evan!
You should take advantage of the speculative frenzy and sell and bank your profits, of course. And I'll be happy you've made some money.
But do you really believe that somebody is going to buy out EUA for billions of dollars? After all this time? If you do, you now very little about PGM mining. And about doing business in Russia. (Alas, I know a great deal about both!).
I make the true fundamental value of EUA down around where you bought the stock - maybe 3p.

Just an idle question...
Does anybody make a market in warrants for BOD shares? If yes, I'd be interested to buy some as a leveraged play.
If anybody knows the answer, please let me know!

Hi 42Trader!
Since you asked, IMO you're being greedy.
You do realise how good the next quarterly results - due in only a month - are going to be here (bar a major surprise)?
Just take a look at the average basket price for this quarter!