Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Chris5P!
It's remarkable how much misinformation you've managed to pack into three lines about EUA. The working mine is a tiny alluvial operation, it's unprofitable, and is it really working? Proven resources consist of 1.9m ounces in a low-grade Russian C2 resource. The rest is speculation and "exploration targets" and such like garbage. I've never seem such ramping and misinformation around a share - it's all suspiciously professional as well. IMO, it's a sucker play. Serious investors should be looking at Sibanye Stillwater, or Anglo-American, or Tharisa (THS) or SLP. These are companies actually making large amounts of money from the current PGM boom.

Nornickel announcing that they have stopped water inflow at the two mines:
https://www.nornickel.com/news-and-media/press-releases-and-news/norilsk-division-complets-phase-2-of-repairs-at-oktyabrsky-and-taimyrsky-mines/
Palladium has dropped back a bit in response to this. It appears my Twitter source got this wrong - sorry! Nonetheless, even the minimum production losses envisaged by NN's best case scenario are significant - 710,000 ounces of PGMs (mostly palladium).

Have I remembered this rightly?... That the JORCreport for Baita Plai was - quite extraordinarily - not independently verified?

Hi GB!
I have no inside information to offer.
But if you ask me to guess, I'd guess that operations at the mine are going badly (hence the upcoming turnaround plan), and that they haven't paid Atlas any money at all. (You're right - they'd boast about it if they had).
I'd also guess that the broker has been forward selling shares / trying to get away a placing for the last couple of weeks. Hence the ramping by the usual suspects on here. But they are having trouble with it, as (pre-consolidation) they need to price to be hold above 0.1p for some time.
Lord, this company is a mess! Andrew Prelea has no shame!

Hi Gotreal!
JLP is indeed a far superior option to EUA. But this is "damning with faint praise". I have simply massive doubts about EUA; I know way too much about Russia!
Back in the real world, I think JLP is a mixed bag. CEO Leon Coetzer is indeed a great salesman. But I'd like to see Colin Bird out of the Chairman's seat. The PGM assets are doing well enough. But I'd like to see hard evidence that their copper assets will deliver as pitched. And, frankly, I think it is a bit pricey right now.
So, I'll sit on the fence with JLP for now. Happy to be invested in THS and SLP. Sibanye also worth considering, if you can be bothered with owning US ADRs, which I can't.

Hi JamesJohn!
That's not how the Atlas convertible loan will work out. It will be converted in tranches, and each time the shares will be sold off, dragging the share price ever lower (which, of course, in turn, means that even more shares will be issued to convert the next tranche, equalling ever more dilution). This is why it is called a "death spiral" loan. It is the most ruinous type of corporate financing available. Some companies survive this experience (though at a huge cost to their longer term shareholders); some simply go bust.
Even if you do believe that Baita Plai is literally "Aladdin's Cave", IMO you should wait until the debt conversion process has played itself out. The two cases are not exact parallels, but have a look at Rambler (RMM), a small Canadian copper miner. They have gone through this process of converting unpayable debt into equity, and are now (possibly) an interesting punt. (It helps that they have a good CEO - the guy who turned round Shanta Gold - as well). Vast are still to go through this painful restructuring process. They are Rambler about a year ago - and look how that turned out for anybody investing in Rambler then!
Also, given past performance, you should take any promises this company makes with a truckload of salt. IMO, a change in CEO is also very necessary before this share becomes investable.

Look, folks, nobody is arguing that copper is a good metal to be invested in. My favourite copper miner is Southern Copper, NYSE:SCCO, but I'd guess that almost any miner that can actually produce reasonable amounts of copper at a reasonable cost is a decent bet. ANTO, CAML, ATYM, RMM etc., take your pick.
Vast may become a decent bet in time - but it needs to sort out the Atlas "death spiral" loan first, and it needs a change of management. Right now, Vast shareholders are (at best) staring down the barrel of consolidation and serious dilution and a downwards spiral in the share price. IMO, ramping this share now is just an attempt to sucker the innocent into losing their money.
Oh, and if anybody is still here because of the diamonds, then take a good look at Botswana Diamonds (BOD), who are on the brink of a major discovery at Thorny River.

Hi Tricky!
Just to call out one example of misinformation on this site...
NN have secured a credit line because of all their problems - huge environmental fines, flooded mines, ageing plant, and the requirement (due to an agreement between the two major shareholders Interros and Rusal) to pay a dividend that they simply can't afford.
Anglo-American are carefully expanding production in South Africa at their giant open pit mine, but their CEO has recently spoken of the need not to oversupply the PGM market and that there will be only "five good years" before the market deteriorates (as battery EVs become more common and supply of PGMs from scrapped and unreplaced ICE vehicles grows quickly).
So neither company is likely to be interested in what EUA are selling.
Frankly, I doubt anybody is. Certainly not at the complete fantasy prices quoted on this board. I take Friday's after hours RNS to mean that no sale is very likely. Rather, IMO this new deal is the sop that PIs are being bought off with. I expect the share price to rise strongly on opening on Monday, and then to drop throughout the day as the cleverer investors here realise this.

IMO, there is no earthly point in buying this share whilst the Atlas "death spiral" loan is still outstanding.
Such convertible loans are guaranteed to cause the share price to grind lower as the loan is gradually converted into shares, which are then dumped into the market at an ever lower price.
Even if you think Vast is a uniquely well-managed company with an amazing asset (which I don't, to be fair), you should wait until the Atlas loan is either paid off or resolved in some other way. Then you should make a decision about buying or not buying.
Anybody buying right now is just going to get slaughtered. Also I note "Mark Sidley" is back here, which almost always means a placing is near.

Hi Mike!
Good question. Could it be because these early stage assets - in the real world - are only worth about $8.8m? It sounds about right to me, but what do I know?
And if that's true, then what is the correct value of EUA's existing assets? I think about $50m tops. Which is way less than EUA's current mcap.
And isn't this news as much as to say that EUA are not selling Monchetundra anytime soon?

When you look at the maths of cfds, spread bets, and options, there really is only going to be one winner - and that's the broker and not the PI.
It's like betting evens on red when the roulette wheel has about 24 black numbers and only 12 red ones. Over a period of time you just can't win.

I'd suggest you think about it a bit. This is not good news.

1. Well, that move makes absolutely no sense at all if EUA are planning to sell Monchetundra. Therefore, IMO, there will be no sale.
2. This shows how cheap PGM resource ounces are to buy in Russia. (They're even cheaper than the Great Dyke in Zimbabwe). Apply the same price to EUA's own assets and you get a realistic valuation of the company. And it's way, way below the current mcap of EUA.
I rather think there will be another RNS on Monday morning, likely ending the Final Sales Process with no sale. But, even if not, I'd expect the share price to suffer badly.

More on Nornickel's flooded mines (Oktyabrsky and Taimyrsky). This (usually reliable) source claimed that the remedial works failed a couple of days ago. Now they are stating:
"3 scenarios are in progress now:
Negative - a complete loss of mines.
Basic - mines restoration by the spring of 2022.
Positive - the recovery of mines by the summer, as stated by the company."
and...
"We do not believe in a positive scenario and suspect that the company may lose its mines."
twitter.com/AK47PFL
FWIW, I remember a conversation I had 15 years ago with a top source (no names!) at NorNickel in which he expressed exactly this fear of total mine loss due to permafrost disintegration. (The permafrost is some 700m deep at Norilsk. These events also make you wonder about the long-term prospects of the other major mining complex there, the Southern Cluster).
So far, NorNickel are still claiming in public the mines will be back online in a matter of weeks / months, and their production losses of PGMs (chiefly palladium) will be "only" 710K ounces, (whilst also losing their COO and trying to reduce their dividend payments).
In short, if this is right, buy palladium futures and/or Sibanye Stillwater and sell Norilsk Nickel???

I wonder what the share price would be if the drill results hadn't been so good!
To turn up diamonds (as well as lots of indicator minerals) in narrow hole drill samples is pretty amazing.
But the market has just shrugged its collective shoulders.
What will it take to move this share price?

Hi Sotolo!
I think you're still applying "gold logic" to industrial metals. Gold is unique because 90% of the gold ever mined is still in circulation (the rest is either buried in a forgotten horde or has been "used up" in industrial processes). The laws of supply and demand don't really apply to gold, in the sense that there is always plenty of potential supply. The gold price is all about speculative sentiment - fear and greed.
Rhodium and palladium are industrial metals used primarily in the automotive industry (current prices have squeezed out other uses, such as in dentistry and glass-making). Rhodium is currently in severe deficit and palladium's supply and demand is at best balanced (and given Norilsk's woes, it is probably in deficit as well). Since there are almost no new sources of supply coming online and since demand is strong, failing a major economic crisis, prices for these two metals should remain high for the next few years. The CEO of Anglo-American recently predicted "five good years" for the metals, which I think is about right. After that, supply will slowly increase from the recycling of old scrapped ICE cars and the number of EV / fuel cell vehicles sold will become significant. By 2030 or so it should become a buyer's market for these two metals. This, by the way, is why nobody is in a hurry to invest large amounts of money in new palladium / rhodium mines.
The picture for platinum is more complex, as not only is it seen partly as a store or value, like gold, but it is used heavily in fuel cells. The hope for PGM miners is that the use of platinum, iridium and ruthenium in green hydrogen / fuel cell technology replaces the revenue lost from falling sales of palladium and rhodium at the end of this decade. I do expect fuel cell usage to become widespread, especially for heavy transport, but there is a question of timing here - it could be that there will be a few barren years for PGM miners at the end of the decade.

No, Fish4Chips, I'm definitely not trying to save you from the poorhouse. You deserve what you're going to get. Enjoy it.
Others, well, they need to research this share independently, and not believe the lies and misinformation that are spread so determinedly on this bulletin board (question: why?).
I'd start with the Heraeus and Johnson Matthey reports on the state of the PGM industry. They can be found on the two companies' websites.

Fish&Chips - that is truly, deeply pathetic.
EUA is vastly overvalued. I say that with the confidence of decades of experience of Russian business and a deep knowledge of PGMs. You will lose most of your money here. And given your puerile attempt at bullying, you deserve it.

Hi Velo!
You're right - it's splitting hairs. And I am a happy investor in both SLP and THS. I'd be glad if anybody could show me a THIRD company with such appealing characteristics.
BUT, not only do I think you need to check your numbers for THS, which are way off. But I also have a sense that you haven't allowed for the hefty influx of cash that the "by-products" (iridium and ruthenium) are now bringing in to SLP. Iridium is now $6,000/oz, and SLP produce a fair amount of it (we estimated it about a week ago). This will improve your numbers for SLP as well!

Hi Libero!
That is so crazy an estimate of the future vanadium price, and indeed the speed of adoption of vanadium flow batteries, that I have to protest.
As always, more than 90% of the vanadium market is in making steel alloys. That should do well enough this year, in the light of the world economy opening back up and the urbanisation of the developing world. But not well enough to drive prices up to the levels you are quoting. Vanadium flow batteries remain a tiny market segment for vanadium use - less than 1% still, I believe.
And, yes, Older and Wiser is right. The prize will go to those companies who can produce vanadium cheaply and in volume. Because there isn't a shortage of the metal and, barring short-term market-driven effects, there never will be. And, in any case, if it ever gets too expensive, it can be substituted easily enough (e.g. with niobium for steel alloys).