Member Info for TigerByTheTail

My penny's worth...
I'd second Tharisa (THS) - extremely good value well run highly profitable South African PGM and chrome miner. In general, most PGM miners (bar Norilsk Nickel) are fairly attractive at the moment, but (IMO) THS is the best of them (and SLP the next best).
Copper and nickel plays also interest me, but I've never found particular companies which I can recommend with full confidence. Ideas welcome!
I also think that lithium shares may have a revival soon. But again, not ready to risk recommending any particular plays.
AAZ very interesting for gold, but I'm not 100% confident that gold will do well in the nearest future. PAF also a well-run gold miner. I'll take a look at GAL; it's a new one to me. Avoid West Africa (Mali, Burkino Faso) - security situation there is deteriorating.

Here are a couple of articles "borrow" (courtesy of Nimrod) from the SLP board:
https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/45622-soaring-rhodium-price-will-contribute-half-of-total-sa-pgm-company-revenues-in-2021/
https://www.mining-journal.com/pgms/news/1406705/nornickel-flooding-adds-to-pgm-shine
When reading the first piece, remember that Tharisa and SLP have very high rhodium content in their prill split due to the particular ore type (UG2) they are mining.

Hi Sotolo!
For rough and ready numbers...
Allow around $1,000 for AISC for all PGM ounces. (Separately, chrome AISC is around $100/t).
Tharisa don't break out the AISC for each individual PGM, and IMO it would be a bit crazy to do so.
Chrome operations should be decently profitable at the moment (chrome price around $180/t, I think). But, yes, it is PGMs in general, and rhodium in particular, that is supercharging Tharisa's profitability.
When estimating profits, rather than plain revenue, remember that THS are investing $50m into the Vulcan fine chrome plant at the moment, some money is due to the BEE partner, and that taxes have to be paid!

On the subject of the actual rhodium price, JMAT have it up strongly at $27,600 today. Palladium is soaring, JMAT are quoting $2,626.
I'm sure that's the effect of Norilsk Nickel's flooded mines and production cuts kicking in. Personally, I'm not convinced by Norilsk's plan to save the two mines, so I'm half-expecting the palladium market, in particular, to get very stressed indeed.

Hi Expart!
Thanks for sharing your parallel calculation for iridium and ruthenium content in the SLP 6E prill split. Given today's prices for the "minor" PGMs, your post really shows how lucky SLP is to be processing UG2 and not Merensky reef ore. (No, I don't think Terry foresaw the current situation all those years ago when he set up the Dumps Operations!)
Taking your numbers, they imply that if SLP hit their guidance of 70K 4E PGM ounces, that would equal production of almost exactly 95K of 6E PGM ounces.
Of these extra ounces 4,845 ounces would be iridium. And 20,140 would be ruthenium. These are in the same ballpark as Barna's numbers yesterday.
Spot price iridium today: $5,900 (up again). Spot price ruthenium today: $390 (up again).
So, if you annualise today's spot prices you get "extra" revenue of $28.6m from iridium and $7.9m from ruthenium = $36.5m total for the "by-products".
To give an idea of the revenue growth now coming from the by-products, using the average prices for calendar year 2020 and similar production, you get to (4,845 oz iridium x $1,622 average price = $7.9m) + (20,140 oz ruthenium x $264 average price = $5.3m) = $13.2m.
So, if you assume today's spot prices for the by-products will be this year's average prices, that makes an improvement in revenue of $23.3m! And remember, SLP calculate their AISC on a 4E basis, so these ounces come for "free" except for the smelting and refining charge (allow a conservative 20%) and profit taxes.

Hi Fantasy!
"Oversold" has no meaning when we are talking about a copper mine which I assume from the context is currently loss-making, a vague and unlikely hope of a diamond exploitation license in Zimbabwe, and a parent company which has a "death spiral" loan out.
The mcap of Vast is still £22m. Would I pay £22m for Vast's assets and liabilities? No, of course not.
And then you have to factor in AP and his gang as well. They hardly add value, do they?

Hi Cowichan!
I absolutely agree with your post about Centamin's appalling refusal to report any news from Burkina Faso, and precious little from Cote d'Ivoire as well. Promises are made, and then broken, again and again and again. Millions have been spent (wasted?) on what, exactly?
To be honest, I've already drawn my conclusion about this. And it is one that reflects very badly on Centamin's previous management.

Hi Toptiger!
Ruthenium $380/oz at the moment, according to JMAT ($5 lower than I quoted). Gone are the days when it was $40/oz! Iridium $5,750/oz (same as).
The prices of these two "minor" PGMs has risen strongly over the last few months / weeks. In part due to excitement over the coming "hydrogen economy", I'd guess.
Remember, my revenue figure is a guesstimate based on an estimated prill split. (And maybe up to 20% of that raw revenue needs to be taken off for smelting and purification.)
But, that said, at these prices the "by-products" are going to add a significant amount to what is an already very healthy bottom line.
FWIW, the UG2 reef of the Bushveld, which SLP and Tharisa are both mining / processing is comparatively rich in the "minor" PGMs (rhodium, iridium, and ruthenium). Hence, SLP's and THS's market-leading basket prices. (As far as I can tell, SLP's is the highest of all).

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-03-17/Palladium-attracting-new-attention-as-prices-test-2-500-on-Nornickel-supply-issues.html

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-03-17/Palladium-attracting-new-attention-as-prices-test-2-500-on-Nornickel-supply-issues.html

If anybody from Sylvania is reading this (and I know you do pop in from time to time) it would be good to get some official numbers on the so-called by-products in the next quarterly report. At least the 6E prill split would be welcome.
In the old days the extra income from ruthenium and iridium was just an afterthought, a nice little bonus. But the way prices are now, the income from the extra 2Es in the 6E PGM basket is becoming significant. The income from iridium (at today's prices) is not so far off the income from palladium - is that correct?

Hi Barna!
So, at today's prices, we are talking about income from the by-products of...
1. Ruthenium 22,000 oz x $385 = $8,470,000
2. Iridium 5,500 oz x $5,750 = $31,625,000
Total annualised revenue from by-products at today's prices = just over $40m!
I know very little about the ruthenium market, so I can't comment if the current price is sustainable. Iridium - total market size around 400K oz per year, it makes rhodium look common - is booming for good reason. It has a key role in the coming "hydrogen economy". I expect $10K / oz at some point in the next few years.

Hi Stoodio!
Thanks for the numbers. But I was really looking for the absolute percentages of ruthenium and iridium in the 6E prill split, not the (old) contributions to revenue.
Ruthenium (14% of THS 6E prill split, for comparison) is now trading at $385/oz - when for years it traded in the $40 to $50 range. Iridium - which is incredibly rare and crucial as a catalyst for hydrogen hydrolysis (i.e. "green" hydrogen production) - has risen from about $1,500 to $5,750 / oz (it's up again this morning). (Ir is 4.3% of the THS 6E prill split, for comparison purposes).
I guess that the SLP 4E basket price must be near its record high, given that rhodium is trading at $25,500/oz today, palladium at $2,400, and platinum at $1,200. And that alone is plenty enough to justify investing here, IMO. But my point is that if you include the "forgotten" by-products ruthenium and iridium, then the outlook here is even better.

Just to ask, does anybody have a link to the 6E prill split for SLP? (I.e. the prill split that INCLUDES ruthenium and iridium). I'm wondering quite how much money SLP must now be pulling in from iridium. It must be getting on towards their income from palladium. Not bad for an ignored by-product!
(I imagine that SLP's 6E prill split is ballpark comparable to THS's 6E prill split, which contains 4.3% iridium. But a precise number would help!)

The security situation in Mali (and Burkina Faso, for that matter) is still deteriorating. Yanfolila is still in "the good part" of Mali, but that area is diminishing as the government loses control of much of the countryside.
https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/mali/articles/20210317.aspx
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/mar/15/mali-conflict-its-not-about-jihad-or-islam-but-justice

Iridium $5,750/oz this morning (JMAT). Remember, it's 4.3% of the THS basket, so it helps!
Ruthenium also rising strongly, now $380 / oz - not bad for a metal which was trading at $40/oz a few years back.
Rhodium has also turned back up, now $25,500 /oz. (And remember, that's 9.5% of THS's basket).
Palladium trading near $2,400 after the Norilsk Nickel news yesterday.
In short, we must be at or very near to a new all-time high for the THS PGM basket price.

Hi Stoodio and CK!
In terms of exposure to the current PGM basket price, Sibanye Stillwater is the best of the majors. Sibanye's purchase a few years ago of palladium miner Stillwater, much criticised at the time, is really paying off for them.
The two companies with the absolute highest PGM basket price (in current market conditions) are SLP and Tharisa (THS). Essentially this is due to the very high rhodium percentage in their prill splits, as they are both processing UG2 ore.
I'm not sure the significance of Nornickel's mine flooding problems has been fully recognised here yet. They are estimating that they will lose production of some 700K PGM ounces this year - mostly palladium, but some rhodium in there as well (Nornickel produce around 13% of the world's annual rhodium supply). It may be worse for them - some Russian commentators are speculating that at least one of the two mines affected may be lost entirely. In these circumstances, it's easy to imagine $20,000/oz rhodium and $3,000/oz palladium for some considerable time.
In other news, note the rocketing price of one of SLP's by products, iridium - now $5,600/oz.

Hi HighAndDry!
THS has been artificially held down by a seller for months now. It has been / is trading way below where it should, based on its fundamentals. Certainly, it should be at its all-time highs (currently 158.5p), as business has never been better.
The market is assuming that the RNS from Fidelity means that they have stopped selling. If so, expect this share to rerate to a more "natural" level.
I think the ruckus in the palladium market due to Norilsk Nickel's problems is just coincidental.

HI JSB!
No buying at all right now.
But I can sell a lot of shares for no less than 142p!

Here's a twitter thread about Nornickel's problems, which includes some video.
twitter.com/AK47PFL/status/1367875374990888962?s=19
Nornickel are being extremely economical with the information they are giving out, but I wonder if their difficulties are related to the melting of the permafrost up there and ground liquefaction. If so, this may be a long term issue. Remember, that part of Siberia had a record-obliterating hot summer last year.
Hi JSB!
Yes, these mines must produce some rhodium. But I don't know what percentage of NN's total annual output these two particular mines represent.