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p.s. Tharisa's "current P/E" (i.e. based on today's spot prices projected forwards for a year and taking into account company guidance and steady state production costs) comes out at around 2!

Hi Sirius!
A full reply would take a long time to write, but I also believe that THS has a better upside than SLP, considering current PGM prices and that chrome prices have recovered to $172/t. Can I suggest reading THS's latest presentation on their website.
That said, IMO, both companies are outstanding buys. I only wish I knew of more companies like them. Or even one! I can name a few other companies which are interesting in some ways, but nothing compares to these two.

Hi Nan!
Take it as a badge of honour - they've done it to me enough times.
Investors here need to ask themselves why the bullying? Why the crazy ramping? Why the peddling of misinformation about both the realities of doing business in Russia and PGMs?
I'd suggest serious investors take a look at Sibanye Stillwater, Ange-American, SLP, THS and JLP. These are far superior PGM plays. With what this early stage exploration company has in the ground - confirmed resources, not targets or made-up fantasy numbers - this share is hugely overvalued.

Rhodium "plunges" to $28,000/oz (JMAT price). I think at these giddy heights it takes only a breath of wind to move the market one way or another.
Iridium and ruthenium unchanged. Palladium strengthening, most likely due to Nornickel's woes. If the tweet I posted last night is correct, I can't help but think their troubles aren't fully priced into the palladium market yet. I'm waiting to see what NorNickel publicly admit about the two flooded mines.
Separately, JLP's interim results out today. I think "meh!", but opinions will vary.

I'm all ears too.
West Africa and the repeated lack of delivery of promised news has been a sore point with me for some years now.

Hi Tones!
That's more or less how I see it. Let's hope we've called it right!

twitter.com/AK47PFL/status/1374750410339139585
"#Nornickel’s Oktyabrsky and Taimyrsky mines are again flooded. The plug which had been erected for flooding localization, was washed away for the third time. Experts believe that the liquidation of the emergency may take at least a year."
Nornickel are saying that they can fulfil existing obligations to their clients for this year (presumably from stocks); but they don't say anything about the metal they sell into the spot market. Their processing plant in Norilsk is also down until mid-April. It just goes from bad to worse for them.

This comes from the other board. I've checked it out, and the source appears reliable enough:
twitter.com/AK47PFL/status/1374750410339139585
"#Nornickel’s Oktyabrsky and Taimyrsky mines are again flooded. The plug which had been erected for flooding localization, was washed away for the third time. Experts believe that the liquidation of the emergency may take at least a year."
Nornickel are saying that they can fulfil existing obligations to their clients for this year (presumably from stocks); but they don't say anything about the metal they sell into the spot market. Their processing plant in Norilsk is also down until mid-April. It just goes from bad to worse for them.

This is about the semi-conductor chip shortage which is affecting automobile output at the moment, and which in turn may be responsible for the current "softness" (if you can call it that) in the rhodium price.
www.zerohedge.com/markets/chip-shortage-puts-market-beating-rally-risk

Hi Tones!
Do take care with this one - it's the investment equivalent of nitroglycerine.
Today's drop is overdone, indeed, but something is always going wrong at Resolute. A high return is possible here, yes, but it's high risk.

Hi Echo1!
I'm assuming (without any real evidence) that BOD will prove up the River Pipe discovery in May, and then, based on those results, enter into a JV / farm-in arrangement to take the find to production.
Probably with Burgundy. But not necessarily.
And 1 billion shares in issue is nothing! Vast have over 20 billion shares in issue, and they are headed to 30 billion and more given they have a "death spiral" convertible loan outstanding. That's proper confetti!

I should make it clear that my post refers to "estimated forward annual profits" from today, assuming current metals prices hold flat for a year, and that it is a real fingers and thumbs job (e.g. I'm not allowing for depreciation / amortisation effects, or for FX changes). I'm also assuming that Tharisa is now free of any finance costs, since all the debt will have been paid off thanks to the strong cash generation of the last few months.
Also, the current financial year is nearly 6 months old, and for the first 3 months both PGM prices and especially chrome prices were a lot lower than they are today. So the upcoming interim results will still be very good, but not all that good!

H Sotolo!
No, if you're assuming current prices for PGMs and chrome, "estimated annual profits" should come out as substantially more than that.
Fingers and thumbs... @ $900m total commodity income x 0.85 (to account for smelting / refining) = $765m "THS revenue". Minus AISC costs = about $160m for PGMs and $150m for chrome = $455m. Minus $50m Vulcan growth Capex = $405m. Tax / BEE share / other projects / non-AISC G&A are hard to estimate, but allow 35% = $263m(ish).
Current THS mcap = about $530m.
So, "a forward P/E" (based on today's prices and looking forwards) of around 2.
Can this be right? I've amazed myself in typing this post!

Hi Pecten!
Thanks for that info.
So, for the warrants, 40m or so (at 0.6p) + 50m (at 0.6p) from September 2021 placing + 60.5m (at 0.6p) from placing this January = about 150m warrants outstanding.
Against 782m shares currently in issue.
Fully diluted = around 930m shares.
I actually think this may be the "final" number of shares in issue here, as long as the large diameter drilling at Thorny River in May confirms what we hope, which is that the River Pipe is Marsfontein 2, or something near that. IMO, in that case the warrants will all be exercised, bringing in £900,000 in funds, and some kind of farm-in / JV agreement will be struck to quickly exploit the discovery.

I'm finding it amazing that the market is so blasé about the recent results. But there you go!
Does anybody know how many warrants are outstanding here?
I'm trying to get to a full-diluted number for the share base.
Let's assume that they drill Thorny River again in May with a large diameter drill (using existing funds), and the results confirm that the River Pipe grades the same as the Marsfontein Mine (which must be a reasonable expectation). I'm trying to put a value on the 70% or so of Thorny River that BOD own, and extrapolate from their a best guess at a share price.

"Forward P/E" (i.e. today's commodity prices projected forward for a year x targeted production and assuming constant production costs) probably nearer 2 than 3. Though I'm not sure how useful a metric that is.
I don't believe markets are efficient. In fact, I think they are highly inefficient. Tharisa is simply mispriced.

Hi EricEric - didn't Atlas convert $500,000 of the principal on the convertible loan back in January?
Anyway, the "death spiral" still has a long way to go.

Hi Oufc!
No, you haven't got a decimal point wrong.
At today's prices, annualised, you get very crudely: (160,000 ounces x $4,000/oz PGM = $640m) + (1.5Mt chrome x $172/t = $258m) = $898m total revenue.
With an uplift to 2Mt chrome to come from Project Vulcan next year, and targeted future production of 200K oz of PGMs, plus taking smelting and refining in-house.

IMO, the share price fall (25%!) is overdone.
Bibiani is / was a non-producing asset due to be sold to the Chinese. Most of the value of the company lies in Mako and Syama, which actually produce gold.
So, coming to this as somebody not invested in RSG, I have concluded (reluctantly) that this is a dip that needs to be bought.
I'm sorry for existing shareholders, though. I've no idea what game the Ghanaian government is playing.

Rhodium back down to $28,900 / oz according to JMAT. It never did quite make it to $30,000 / oz. Still , anything over $20,000 is wonderful in my book.
IMO, some of the price "weakness" today maybe due to the reports of further problems in the supply of computer chips for cars, which is expected to limit automobile production over the next few months.
I also think a lot will depend on how the situation develops at the two flooded Norilsk Nickel (NN) mines. NN's own communications have been limited and hard to decipher, and (after a bit of nosing around) I'm wondering if they are downplaying their problems. Norilsk is up in the Artic Circle in Siberia, and except for a thin layer of topsoil in summer, the ground is rock solid with permafrost (which can extend up to 1,000m below ground level). That part of Siberia had a record-breaking hot summer last year, and I'm wondering if the flooding of the mines isn't due to melting of the permafrost. Permafrost is strange stuff. It's about 80% water, so if it melts what seemed solid rock literally liquefies. If this is what has happened to the walls of the two mines, then no wonder NN are pouring so much backfill into them to try and stop the water inflow. It may turn out to be a hopeless cause - the diamond producer Alrosa "lost" an entire mine this way recently.
Of course, any hint that the two mines are in bigger trouble than NN have so far admitted will result in big movements in palladium and rhodium.