Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Yep, Beardozer, technology indeed moves on.
So what do you think we'll all be using for conducting electricity in the future? I've heard gold is an excellent substitute for copper; in fact, I believe it is an even better conductor than the red metal. That should work.
Oh, oops...

One thing we should all be clear about -
After the Russians took Crimea in 2012 the ownership of many of Crimea's larger companies changed hands. Essentially, ethnic Ukrainians and Tartars were driven out, and pro-Kremlin Russian owners were installed. Sometimes this was done via pliable and corrupt local courts, in some cases it was done at gunpoint. To the victors went the spoils of war...
Much the same thing happened in Donetsk and Luhansk.
Also, IF the Russians invade Ukraine with enough resolve, they will win the subsequent war (it's not really a fair match up militarily), and they could (if they chose to) take by force the Russian-speaking South-Eastern half of the country (draw a line roughly from Odessa to Kharkov). And if that happened, I'm confident that FXPO would lose control of its key producing assets in Ukraine, which would most likely end up in the hands of a Kremlin-friendly Russian oligarch. The Swiss holding company could sue in international courts, but I doubt they would get very far with this approach. The Chinese certainly wouldn't care who was selling them iron ore pellets, as long as the price was right.
What I'm not so sure about is how much appetite Putin and his cronies have for a new war in Ukraine. The military build-up (which is real and substantial) may just be sabre-rattling to force Ukraine into making some key concessions (such as restoring the fresh water and power supply to Crimea, and maybe opening a road and rail corridor to it as well).
In short, I think it will blow over. But I'm not sure enough to risk money on that call. So I'll sit on the fence with this one!

Hi Lytham!
The source you are quoting is Russian black propaganda. ZeroHedge is full of the stuff.
But, yes, it does look like trouble is brewing in Ukraine again. There is nothing new in this. Back in the 2000s, Putin proposed to an astonished then President George W. Bush that they divide Ukraine in two. The Russians would get to add "Maly Rossiya" to their lands - that's the Russian speaking half of the Ukraine, which would include Poltava (where FXPO is located). The West would get to keep Lviv/Lvov and the Ukrainian speaking lands.
I guess Putin thinks now is the time to make his next move - Crimea is a mess due to the Ukrainians cutting off most of its fresh water supply, he needs a distraction from Covid, and he is testing out Biden. We will see how determined he is over the next few weeks, I guess.
And, no, this isn't good for FXPO.

Hi Stoodio!
I try to keep my estimates "realistic to lowball".
I'm aware the final number could be higher.
BTW, I've been looking at Eastplats, TSX:ELR. This is not to recommend it as an investment on its own, but it would make an interesting takeover target for SLP. Theoretically, there are around 535,000 ounces of PGMs (including a high proportion of rhodium (UG2 ore)) in the tailings they are looking to process at Crocodile River, and their market cap is only 50m CAD (@£30m).

Caw1!
Here you go, a far more accurate summary of the rhodium market... 80%+ of world production of around 1m ounces per year from South Africa, very little from Russia.
www.thoughtco.com/metal-profile-rhodium-2340151#:~:text=Like%20most%20PGMs%2C%20rhodium%20production%20is%20focused%20around,in%20various%20minerals%2C%20including%20dunite%2C%20chromite%2C%20and%20norite.
As said, anybody investing in EUA because of rhodium is barking up the wrong tree completely.

Hi All!
The pullback (IMO) was due to Africa Asia (i.e. Samancor) unloading heavily before the end of the quarter - presumably this was due to the broker needing to meet some pre-agreed target. Hopefully, their selling will now slow or stop.
As for profits, I'm going for around $36m this quarter, which would comfortably be a record quarter for Sylvania. (I think the record to date is $25.4m from Q1 2020 (i.e. just before the pandemic hit). Also, there should be a strong increase in the cash pile as the very high "trade receivables" number begins to normalise.
Essentially, SLP's biggest problem is that it has too much money. Which is a high class problem to have - especially on AIM!

Hi Ashikshetty!
Are you sure of that?
For instance, my shares will be listed as part of the holding of my broker, "AJ Bell Nominees".
I do think Tharisa is narrowly held, with management holding a big chunk, and there being only a small free float.
But surely there have to be more than a thousand unique shareholders?

Hi Brisk!
We can argue about it, but you're right - it's a guessing game.
I still say no buyer, you say yes, there will be - fair enough. Time will tell.
But it is high time that the Takeover Panel took an interest in this deal and forced public disclosure of the bidder and a PUSU deadline on the process. It's over a year now that EUA are in this FSP - that's farcical.

I say, no, it's not selling at all. Let's see who is right and who is wrong, shall we?

Hi Brisk!
No, I don't think it's Norilsk Nickel. Highly unlikely, in fact - they would just use the Russian courts to take what they wanted from EUA on some spurious invented legal pretext.
In fact, I begin to wonder if there is an actual serious bidder at all. All in all, it's high time for the Takeover Panel to force a conclusion to this process - name the bidder and put in a PUSU decline, or cancel the FSP.

Hi KaMei!
Thanks for taking the trouble to invest a history for me. But you're quite wrong. I took a small loss on my last trade with HUM, it's true, but I did make a lot from HUM last year, and I sold out very near the top. Also, currently I have no gold shares. So, no, I'm not locked in, or embittered. I'm just looking for future profits (and not seeing any here), and saying it as I see it.
FWIW, your own post is full of errors. Not least, the Betts family only have a small stake in this company, so shareholder dilution isn't really a problem for them. Mine life at Yanfolila? Well, it will be more than the current mine plan, but 20 years? You're having a laugh. I'd think about 8.
And for the last time, HUM are not generating any free cash at all at the moment - just read the RNSs and do the maths. It's really not that hard, you know! And God only knows what your own calculation is meant to represent. You could at least remember to include the fact that only about 50% of ounces discovered are ever converted from resource to mineable reserve. Jeez!

Yes, 12/4 is Q2 production results. We should also get a statement of cash position, but not financial results.
I.e. we should be able to work out roughly how much money THS have made in the last 3 months, but we won't be able to do it precisely. (As for the market, it won't bother to do the maths, of course. It's lazy like that).
Interim results are 27/5. They should be a big wake-up moment for the market. We should also get an interim dividend. I'm thinking it could be as much as 4.5p (even though the basic dividend calculation - 15% of NPAT - isn't particularly generous).
In the end, I believe sheer profitability will tell here, and I'm looking forward to a rerate to £2+.
As for PGM prices, the CEO of Anglo-American spoke of "five years" of high prices recently. And the CEO of Sibanye Stillwater said palladium prices will stay high "until 2027". I share that general viewpoint. Demand isn't going to decrease (rather increase, at least for a while), and it will take years for any new production to come online.

Hi BooM!
IMO, HUM is not making any free cash at all at the moment - as I believe you will discover from the next two quarterlies. Costs have spiralled out of control in Mali, and the gold price has fallen back (and possibly will fall further).
Coris most likely won't fund the full amount required for Kouroussa (most banks will only fund around 60% to 70% to leave a margin of safety for them). So where do you think that extra required money is coming from?
So, yes, an equity raise for Kouroussa (assuming they get the licence) is on the cards.

No, Bushy-Tailed, Kouroussa is not "fully-funded". That is misinformation designed to deceive.
It will have to be paid for with a mix of earnings (not likely to see any soon), debt (presumably Coris Bank again), and possibly (IMO, probably) an equity raise.
In other news, drill results from SE continue to be good. Not sure about going underground at KE.

Hi Nimrod!
A useful article. But it doesn't mention rhodium, which is crucial for reducing Nox ICE emissions, and which is in an intractable deficit. And it doesn't include NorNickel's production problems, which will push the palladium market further into deficit this year.

Hi Stoodio!
Isn't the rule here, always, without fail, buy the dips?

To give an example of the BS peddled on this board...
£7.26 per share would equal a market cap of £20bn (+ options and warrants dilution - not sure about that).
That's more than half the cap of diversified mega-miner Anglo-American, whose output includes over 3m ounces of PGM per year play diamonds plus a great deal else besides.
For an exploration minnow with a minuscule and unprofitable mining operation in the Urals and a small undeveloped exploration acreage in Kola - in Russia!
Words fail me... and, Del, no I couldn't find your intelligence to insult it.
pjs - no wounds to lick, spectacular success over the last year. And do look into Alex Borelli over at GGP, and see if you're really happy trusting your money to him...

Good God! There are times when I'm sorry for EUA investors - because the odds are that most of you will lose most of your money here. EUA's underlying assets are simply worth only a fraction of the current mcap, so owning these shares is a trap.
But then you make vile sexist and ****** jokes, spew venom at anybody who dares question your ludicrous narrative, and I start to think, well, maybe at least some of you deserve what's coming down the pike.
As for GGP, there is some value in the company, more than in EUA. (And also a lot of blood red flags - research the Chairman). But again, AIM has overvalued the stock, and current shareholders don't have much to look forward to but a declining share price.
Finally, the question you should all be asking here is, not who pays the derampers, but who pays the rampers!

Back in the rational world...
Since today is the last day of the quarter, here are the average PGM prices over this quarter and the previous one (source: JMAT).
(I've left out gold from the PGM 6E prices as insignificant).
Platinum - $1,168 Q1 2021, compared to $937 Q4 2020
Palladium - $2,424 Q1 2021, compared to $2,355 Q4 2020
Rhodium - $23,450 Q1 2021, compared to $14,757 Q42020
Iridium - $4,417 Q1 2021, compared to $1,726 Q4 2020
Ruthenium - $330 Q1 2021, compared to $270 Q4 2020
It's also worth noting that all spot prices today are over their quarterly averages, so we are set fair for the coming quarter as well.

Since today is the last day of the quarter, here are the average PGM prices over this quarter and the previous one (source: JMAT).
(I've left out gold from the 6E as THS produce so little of it - it's only 0.2% of the basket).
Platinum - $1,168 Q1 2021, compared to $937 Q4 2020
Palladium - $2,424 Q1 2021, compared to $2,355 Q4 2020
Rhodium - $23,450 Q1 2021, compared to $14,757 Q42020
Iridium - $4,417 Q1 2021, compared to $1,726 Q4 2020
Ruthenium - $330 Q1 2021, compared to $270 Q4 2020
It's also worth noting that all spot prices today are over their quarterly averages, so we are set fair for the coming quarter as well.