Member Info for TigerByTheTail

RNS - 24th October 2019 plus knowledge of customary terms of these "death spiral" bonds. I'm assuming to an extent as it's not stated explicitly, but Vast are likely to be in default.
It would also be interesting to know how much Vast still owe to SSGS and Mercuria, and if they are in good standing on those debts as well. But it's Atlas who have security over Baita Plai, so that's the debt that matters most.
As said, if I were a Romanian mining entrepreneur, I'd be thinking there might be an opportunity here. At this point Atlas will be concerned about Vast's ability to pay, so I'd think they'd be open to a negotiation.

This is great news. But I would have thought it was worth an RNS!
Does anybody else get the feeling there is some kind of information black-out in place here?
Are BOD in talks with a potential partner and deliberately keeping things quiet?

Iridium and ruthenium hitting new all-time highs this morning - $6,200/oz and 410/oz. (JMAT). Rhodium $28,400/oz.
All good.

Just to note SLP's much ignored "by-products" iridium and ruthenium hit new all-time highs again today at $6,200 / oz and $410 / oz. (JMAT prices).
If anybody from the company is reading this (and I know you do read this board sometimes):
1. Could you publish a full "official" 6E prill split in the next quarterlies, to save us from guesstimating it?
And;
2. Would you consider moving over to reporting 6E PGM results, rather than reporting 4E PGM results + classifying iridium and ruthenium as "by-products"? Iridium is now a substantial source of revenue for the company - it's not so far off palladium.
Anyway, with rhodium at over $28,000 / oz as well (JMAT price again), all is good!

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/11/china-v-russia-v-america-is-2021-the-year-orwells-1984-comes-true

Hi Andy!
You say, "can't see them going bust".
Well, Atlas can seize Baita Plai at any moment they choose by demanding debt repayment in full. Vast are in default and they can't pay.
Let's suppose I was a Romanian mining entrepreneur, and I believed that Baita Plai was truly as good as Andrew Prelea has made it sound. Well, I would go to Atlas and make them an attractive binding offer to buy Baita Plai out of bankruptcy for (let's say) $10m (i.e. the cash value of Vast's debt + a decent premium). That way I'd pick up a mine "worth $100m" for a tenth of its value.
You'll probably say this is ruthless. And you'd be right - it is. But that's how a lot of business gets done in Eastern Europe. The weak are prey, and Vast are weak. The real question is, is Baita Plai worth it?

Just to back up my previous post, here is a piece from a leading pro-Russian propagandist:
www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-ukraine-redux-war-russophobia-pipelineistan
The article is complete garbage, of course, and the author no more than a paid liar. But this is the kind of stuff that the Russians are pumping out. And Russian state TV is promoting even worse garbage.
I still think Putin will take this to the brink, secure some concessions, and then back down. But the war drums are beating, and there is a tail risk (I'm thinking 10%) that this spirals out of control.

Hi Maksym!
Considering Russian forces are massing on the borders of Ukraine, the Kremlin's official spokesman has threatened the end of the state of Ukraine and "to shoot it not in the leg but in the face", and that Russian state TV is pumping out war propaganda calling Ukrainians "Nazi traitors" and the like...
Considering that back in 2012 the Kremlin sponsored uprisings not only in Luhansk and Donetsk (where they had some success) but also in Odessa, Dnipropavlovsk (ie.e near enough to FXPO), and Kharkov (where they failed that time)...
Considering that the FXPO plant falls within the half of Ukraine that Russians regard as "theirs"...
Considering that Biden has called Putin "a killer" and "a man who has no soul", and at this point the Russians have very little left to lose...
No, it's definitely not ridiculous to worry about a Russian takeover.

Hi Unkrw!
One technical detail I'd point out is that the Russians are clearly pre-positioning forces - either to simply threaten or to invade I can't say. However, this process is far from complete - e.g. the naval assets are still at least two weeks away from being ready for action. So don't expect a quick resolution. This will "go down" (or not) in May. Good firm ground for the armour then, and clear skies for the aviation...

It is £250K nominal value. It's much more dilution then you are imagining.
What's the nominal value of EUA shares? - I can't find out from the website. Is it 0.1p? If so, then the directors want to issue 250,000 x 10 x 100 new shares.

Hi VanVan!
The only companies that I know of that can compete with FXPO on fundamentals are platinum group metal (PGM) miners, who are enjoying a bonanza right now from high prices, and are trading on similarly ridiculously low "forward P/E" ratios. My picks would be Tharisa (THS) and Sylvania Platinum (SLP), due to the high rhodium content in their baskets. But almost all PGM miners will be doing well right now, (except Norilsk Nickel who have major permafrost problems).
I certainly don't question the economic case for owning FXPO. But sovereign risk must be considered as well.

Hi Sotolo!
Quarterlies probably delayed a day due to needing a bigger abacus to count all the money Tharisa are making! (Or perhaps for some banal reason such as a key meeting or PR planning.)
As for rhodium, I'd be more than happy if it consolidates in a corridor between $20K and $30K an ounce - it really doesn't need to go higher.
Judging by the trading action, Fidelity must still be selling. But I reckon they only have about 2% left now.
I'm not sure how the market will respond to the quarterlies, as they won't contain financials, only production numbers. It may be that the market needs to see the hard financial numbers that will come with the interims before rerating Tharisa properly.

Hi Tygarreg!
When the Russians took over Crimea in 2012, a lot of the bigger businesses changed hands - mostly through spurious court cases, occasionally through armed men physically taking over the company's offices. Some owners did survive - but mostly those who had openly declared their allegiance to Russia pre-invasion.
The same thing happened in Donetsk and Luhansk - though with more outright criminality mixed in there.
I still think the likelihood is that all this blows over, or that any fighting is limited to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. But if the Russians do invade Ukraine in force, then I'd expect that they'd easily win the resultant war, and also that FXPO would lose control of their assets in Ukraine. Most likely some Kremlin-friendly oligarch will end up owning them after a rigged court case which proves that the Swiss parent company (FXPO) never owned them properly in the first place.

NT to buy now, selling at 144.5p. I do think the seller (i.e. Fidelity) may have indeed cleared.

Hi Unvrkw!
The Bosphorus is governed by the Treaty of Montreux, which allows the Russian Navy access to the Med.
I can't see the Turks messing with such an old treaty. Or wanting to make an open enemy out of Russia. It's rumoured that Erdogan and Putin actually get on well on a personal level, and certainly Turkey's membership of Nato is under some question.
I posted a piece by Pavel Felgenhauer a couple of days ago, in which he noted that the Russians had sent a lot of naval assets (including landing ships) round from the Baltic to the Black Sea. This, I am afraid, is rather ominous. The only logic in such a move is to threaten Odessa.
IF (and it is still a very big if) the Russians do invade Ukraine and divide it in two, then I wouldn't expect FXPO (the Swiss holding company) to keep control of its producing assets in Ukraine. IMO, they would end up in the hands of some Kremlin-approved oligarch. This is the risk here. It's not all that likely to happen, but it would be disastrous if it did.

Nornickel latest news - the two flooded mines are due back online in May and June.
"According to #Nornickel, the Oktyabrsky mine commissioning is expected in May, the Taimyrsky mine – in June."
(FWIW, I have my doubts about this timeline. The climate is heating up fast in the Siberian Arctic, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if NorNickel had further problems with permafrost melt and water intrusion to their mines. There may also be effects on their surface plant - remember it is permafrost melt that caused the collapse of the giant oil tank, leading to the oil spill for which NorNickel had to pay a $2bn fine last year.

Hi Wanber!
But FXPO's mines and plant IS in what the Russians now call NovoRussia (or in the old days Maly Rossiya), which is predominantly Russian (or at least Surgut) speaking. Imagine a line drawn from Odessa to Kharkov and including the whole of the Black Sea coastline - that's roughly the hefty chunk of Ukraine that the Russians talk about "recovering" sooner or later. "Rump Ukraine" might still include Kiev (this is marginal), or it might only include Lvov and the Carpathians.
Remember, when Crimea was taken back in 2012, the Russians tried to provoke uprisings not only in Lugansk and Donetsk (which succeeded), but also in Kharkov, Dnipropetrovsk and Odessa. These were swiftly put down (in Odessa very bloodily), but don't doubt that Putin may be tempted to try again.
IMO, Putin has calculated correctly that Nato will not get involved, no matter what. And the Ukrainians will fight, but they would be no match for a serious full-scale Russian invasion.
If it wasn't for this threat, FXPO would be a great investment. But there it is, and knowing what I know, this is too much risk for me.

I agree that hydrogen isn't a "threat" to lithium.
Cars will go lithium battery, and heavy transport (ships, trains, trucks, buses) will go hydrogen fuel cell.
It's worth a quick read of Johnson Matthey's (JMAT's) trading update out this morning. They are reporting real progress in their hydrogen fuel cell business. It's also worth researching platinum group metal (PGM) miners - PGM prices are booming due to tightened clean air regulations in ICE vehicles (this affects palladium and rhodium, in particular), and the growing realisation that "green hydrogen" technology will require far more iridium and ruthenium (and possibly platinum) than is currently produced. E.g.: the price of iridium has quadrupled in recent months.
I'd recommend taking at look at Tharisa (THS), Sylvania Platinum (SLP), Sibanye Stillwater, and possibly Anglo-American to access this market. IMO, these companies are deeply undervalued.
Now, back to watching the paint dry here. This will come good on a 2-3 year timescale, I'm sure. But it's a little dull around here right now.

Hi Bananaman!
I think we are now up to 94:3 buy-sell ratio today. And some of the buys are hefty.
To be honest, I'm not astounded by the buying, because it obvious that Tharisa have had a blockbuster bonanza quarter. I am a little amazed by Fidelity's selling, though.
And why shouldn't Tharisa achieve a £1bn mcap given this profitability is sustained? Remember, production is due to increase to 2Mt chrome (Vulcan - now being built) and 200,000 oz PGMs (grade and recovery improvements), and PGM smelting is due to be brought in house (i.e. @15% extra PGM revenue).

It's 70:2 buys to sells now.
Essentially, it's the world against Fidelity. It's just a question of how many shares they have left.
IMO, this is a good example of why you shouldn't trust your money to professional fund managers. I wonder if it's bonus-seeking or simply incompetence?