Member Info for TigerByTheTail

I agree with this. Centamin's behaviour re: West African exploration has been outrageous - the kind of nonsense you'd expect from an AIM-listed minnow, not a FTSE 250 company.
In general, I support ESG objectives. But I've always thought the virtue signalling at Centamin was a cover for not having a proper grip on the business. IMO, it's time to force out any directors who were in office during Andrew Pardey's misrule. Either they knew what was going on (bad), or they should have known but didn't (i.e. incompetent).

Hi CommandoKai!
It's not fully derisking, as you're exposed to much the same risks (South Africa, PGM prices with rhodium heavy prill split), but Tharisa (THS) also has outstanding fundamentals.
FWIW, I also like Sibanye Stillwater. I think there is also a case to be made for Anglo-American (AAL). I'd call Norilsk Nickel a strong avoid due to permafrost issues, Russia risk, and plain old rank bad management.

*deacons = decisions!
Wow, spell check!

Hi Pecten!
And a whole lot bigger share price as well!
That would imply a very sizeable find indeed.

Hi Prof!
Good to see you here!
FIL (Fidelity) have been selling down from a stake of over 10%. I don't know why - it seems bonkers to me. But institutions make strange deacons for strange reasons sometimes. If my basic assumption is right, and they are selling down to zero, then they must be very nearly out - I'd say they have less than 1% left now. It's definitely true to say that whoever the seller is, they have held the price down - days pass here where there are literally no sells at all, only buys, until one huge delayed sell prints to balance out the book.
I should add that - as always - we can't be sure that it is Fidelity still selling, or indeed that they are the only seller. As always, watching the market is like peering into a thick fog.

I've been wondering if the River Pipe and this apparent new discovery aren't joined at root (depth).
Note how the River Pipe dips deeper as it trends eastwards (see RNS with model from late last year). And that the apparent new discovery is only 200m to the east of the River Pipe.
That said, I don't think even James Campbell knows the answer to this yet. We're not going to get full answers next week either - just an initial indication of whether something is there or not (and it seems likely that there is), and a very rough idea of how big it might be.
I'm still quite happy to assume that any find will turn out to diamondiferous. Why should it be different to all other dykes and blows in this area? The question for me is how big it is.

Hi Expart!
Remember these prill splits are averages - the different seams of the UG2 reef will have different PGM grades and compositions. So we should allow some flexibility in the numbers.
We saw in THS's latest quarterly that Pd production was down quite a bit whilst they had managed to keep rhodium production almost level. I'm not sure that was achieved by accident or by design, but no complaints!
By the way, did anybody else notice how much better THS's PGM recoveries are than SLP's?

Hi Banaman!
Yes, SLP is a much smaller operation that Tharisa - about half the PGMs and none of the chrome.
There is nothing wrong with that in itself; SLP is still a highly profitable company. But you've got to ask how it is that THS and SLP have roughly similar market caps. IMO, THS should trade at 1.5 to 2 times the market cap of SLP. That extra upside is why I'm more heavily invested in THS than SLP.

There is a lot more ruthenium in the SLP 6E basket than in THS's basket. And ruthenium is the cheapest of the PGMs by far.
I think that explains it.

Hi Total Trader!
SLP published their 6E prill split for the first time in their report today. Here it is: "Pt 47%, Pd 17%, Rh 9%, Au 0.2%, Ru 21%, Ir 5%".
I'd need to do the maths, but I'm not sure that comes out as a higher basket price than THS's at current PGM prices. Don't THS produce a tiny bit more rhodium than SLP (9.5%)?
Anyway, yes, SLP's results are excellent for SLP shareholders (and I'm one too), and they also bode very well for Tharisa shareholders!

Sibanye Stillwater are not a buyer here. Or of any new PGM assets in the ground.
Just read some of CEO Neil Froeneman's latest interviews. After betting big on palladium in 2017 with the takeover of Stillwater and winning his bet handsomely, he's now taking Sibanye Stillwater into lithium mining in Finland.

Hi JulianM!
I've been thinking the same and I've been buying all this week as a result. I hope we're both right!

Just to give some context...
Average price of rhodium over Q1 2021 (i.e. this quarter just reported) was $23,450.
Average price of rhodium for the complete month of April was $28,775.
Today's spot price of rhodium is $29,500 / oz.
(All JMAT prices).
So the the trend is still upwards, and the expectation has to be that this quarter (i.e Q4 FY 2021) will be even better than the last. This is helped by generally improved prices for the other PGMs as well. And, seasonally, the current quarter is usually the strongest of the year for SLP.
Oh, and thanks to SLP for publishing their 6E prill split in the results. Much appreciated!

Hi Whatever!
Yes, that's what I meant.

Well, if you're going by P/E, annualising the quarterly results just reported then SLP is trading on a P/E of around 2.5!
Oh, and the basket price is currently higher than it was through the last quarter, so the current quarter is looking to be even better.
Oh, and that doesn't take into account a cash pile of around $90m (allowing for the dividend having been paid) and a very large positive number in the accounts from trade receivables minus trade payables (i.e. money "in the works"). Most miners have a sizeable negative number here.

SLP (Sylvania Platinum) quarterly results out this morning. They are very strong. Here are the headlines with the previous quarter comparables:
· Sylvania Dump Operations ("SDO") delivered 17,420 4E PGM ounces in Q3 (Q2: 18,363 ounces);
· SDO recorded $74.2 million net revenue for the quarter (Q2: $43.7 million);
· EBITDA of $58.7 million (Q2: $29.1 million);
· Net profit of $41.3 million (Q2: $20.3 million)"
This has to bode well for Tharisa's financial results due in the six monthly interims. Q1 FY 20921 (Oct-Dec 2020) profit generation should be good, and Q2 FY 2021 (Jan-Mar 2021) profit generation should be spectacular.

Yes, but you couldn't buy on the dip this morning, only sell.
They beat my profit estimate by $5 million - not bad!

Here's the link to today's video again:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpD7zep247o
My reading of it is that James Campbell is trying to set expectations for the initial drill results to come next week - possibly as early as Tuesday morning.
So, Marsfontein had "a 40m thick kimberlite intersection" and yielded "$100m free cash flow for its shareholders" (actually, I think it was more, and anyway at today's diamond prices we should about double that). JC also dropped a marker that Klipspringer mine - only 10 km away - is on care and maintenance. Presumably, a deal could be struck to use its processing plant.
Anyway, it's not long to wait to find out what "this distinct geophysical anomaly" turns out to be.

Hi Mad Stork!
Welcome! Yes, THS is making money hand over fist and the market hasn't realised it yet. I think we're all expecting a sizeable rerate once Fidelity are done selling, and especially once the interims are out (27th May).
FWIW, I agree with your take on EUA. But I'm not short. Who knows how long EUA can string out the Final Sales Process before they finally have to 'fess up to the truth?

twitter.com/BotswanaDiamond/status/1387739385584619527
New photo - rig seems to have moved again. Another hole being drilled at an angle...