Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi OfficeManager!
Well, you have a nice day as well.

Hi Prof!
(Sorry - way off-topic!)
I still have a few SLP, but I have reduced. For me, THS has a bigger upside, and - no matter how appealing the investment case for PGMs - there has to be some limit on investment size!
BOD (IMO) are in the process of a significant diamond discovery at Thorny River - another Marsfontein. Market has reacted a bit now, but it is still way undervalued.

What on earth is wrong with selling at 0.55 and buying back at 0.43?!?
I was always going to buy back in. But the ramping on this board over the last few weeks was a clear "sell" signal.
(And you can check this on the THS board, as I posted it there! And, by the way, Tharisa (THS) is a very good buy - platinum group metals miner making huge profits, interims coming up on 27th! There, you get a cross ramp for free!))

You forgot:
3. The geology is difficult and the mine is problematic to operate safely;
4. Dewatering is a major expense;
5. Ore is difficult to process efficiently and the concentrate attracts penalties due to impurities (e.g. zinc in the copper);
6. Grades are not as expected (and, note, we still don't have a proper, independently verified, JORC for Baita Plai).
Mining is hard, and (looked at purely statistically) reopening old mines has a low success rate (just google this, studies have been done). By and large, such ventures are a triumph of hope over experience.

Hi Prof!
To be honest, I sold out a complete of weeks ago here (I think I mentioned this on the THS board). There was way too much euphoria here for my comfort, and I felt the share price had gotten ahead of the clock. This turnaround is credible, but it will take time.
I was very happy to buy back in this morning at such a large discount. I'll probably add more, but I'll let it settle first.

Hi Prof!
Yes, basically.
Whether the new money required will be debt or equity isn't clear, but the way it is flagged up in the RNS leads me to think that the company is going for debt. (If not, surely place first and explain why later!)
Plenty of good solid progress in the RNS, but Rome wasn't built in a day.
The possibility of a JV for LittleDeer is a welcome new upside.

Yes, it occurs to me that the share price is being "managed" to keep the deal at an attractive premium to the current share price.

Have a look at Tharisa (THS) - a platinum group metals and chrome miner with amazing profitability and cash generation t the moment - interims out on 27th with decent dividend.
I also like the look of FAR and HZM.
If anybody fancies a gamble (note - "gamble") - Botswana Diamonds (BOD) are in the middle of making a discovery at Thorny River and the market hasn't really adjusted to it yet.

Big sell - 910,000 shares - just printed.
It will be interesting to see how this trades tomorrow. Are the brakes off, or are there still more shares to soak up?

Mr. Cautious!
This is a lowish-risk play which should yield 10%-15% in a matter of weeks.
Remind me how much interest the banks are paying on savings again?
I get why people are upset with Secker, etc. But that still makes this a "buy" at this price.

Yes, IMO you do buy shares in a situation like this. I reckon there is a solid 10%to 15% to be made on the arbitrage here over the next few weeks. I can't see Ganfeng not making a final offer, or, frankly, not succeeding with it. And the price will only go up, not down.
And, at the very worst, if the offer collapses, you're left with shares in a lithium mine which are worth more than 56p in the long run anyway.
A better question would be, why are people selling?

Hi David!
Rhodium doesn't have a spot or a futures market - it is all directly traded between buyers and sellers. Thus, the true price is shrouded in client confidentiality.
The best way to keep tabs on it is via Johnson Matthey's price tables (search JMAT rhodium price), which are updated 4 times per day. JMAT are one of the leading refiners of PGMs (along with Heraeus and BASF), and what you're seeing is their "ask" prices. These are higher than the prices that sellers like SLP or THS will be getting, but they will reliably show you the way the rhodium price is moving.
I've never managed to understand what the Kitco price for rhodium is actually reflecting (in the real world). In moments of market stress (like during the meltdown a year ago) it can be wildly unreliable. Kitco prices are fine for platinum and palladium, though.
Current price of rhodium today is $29,200/oz (JMAT price), just drifting downwards slightly, and just under its all-time high of $29,800. Iridium is flat at its all-time high of $6,300/oz, and ruthenium (of which SLP seemingly produce a lot) is making a new one at $445/oz.
If anybody is quoting you $17,800/oz for rhodium, it's either as fake as a round of gold-plated tungsten pretending to be bullion or it's a buy!

Now buying at 149.40.
Opinions? Is this finally the start of a break-out, or just another head fake? Are Fidelity done, or is this just the market-makers looking for volume?

Evidently, others are having the same thought - now 61p!

Whatever you think of the 67.5p offer, the arbitrage on offer between it and the current market price (58p vs 67.5p) is pretty substantial.
Given that the offer will likely succeed (Ganfeng already own 28% etc.), this has to make you think.

Squeeze, also the facts behind your claim of "cheapest running copper mine in Europe".
Feel free to use ATYM as a comparison for cash costs of production.

Maybe Vast wrote that to you. Maybe they didn't.
But even if they did, Vast have a terrible record when it comes to truthfulness. You can't argue with that.
There is no reason to consolidate except to facilitate an Atlas conversion. Therefore, it's coming.

Yet. It's coming. Just wait and see.
No reason for the consolidation otherwise. (It's a costly process and not something you do for the hell of it).

IMO, share price action is really a question of how many stale longs there are - PIs who are just tired and who want to get out at break-even after sitting at a loss for some time. More than anything, this share needs volume to allow them to exit and to be replaced by new money.
The actual market cap is absurdly low for what BOD now have. Even fully diluted (i.e. at about 1.05bn shares, owning 72% of Vutomi, and with about £1m of new warrant money in the bank) BOD's market cap would only be around £13m at today's closong price. But AIM is hardly an efficient market!
For myself, looking forward to the model first, and then the analysis of the drilling in July, and then (presumably) to the drilling of the ravine between the two finds. I'm also very bullish here - I think 5p is definitely on the cards, and hopefully more. But it won't happen tomorrow.

Hi RMR!
"No company wants the ignominy of making an offer which is flatly rejected."
Really? I've made lots of bids for assets/companies that I expected to be turned down, and most of which were turned down. The "ignominy" never bothered me one bit. I just wanted the best deal I could get.
And as for the deals that didn't happen? "Everything that doesn't happen, it happens for the best" as it goes in Russian. (I.e. never regret what never happened.)
The key thing in buying assets is to never bluff. Once you've got a reputation for saying what you mean and walking away if you don't like the price, you'd be amazed at what can be achieved!