Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Mr008!
What profits would those be? I'm puzzled.
I thought that the first mining plan for the reopened Baita Plai had failed completely, and that now we are onto a new plan, which we are supposed to believe will magically deliver the results that the first one failed to do. Remember, Baita Plai is a mine without an independent JORC, only a strange company-generated one, and that it has already gone bust once. Maybe, just maybe, the mine is not all Andrew Prelea has talked it up as being?
And if you are referring to the now closed down Manaila, that lost money as well.
Yes, copper prices are high, and will likely remain so. But a mining company still has to actually dig the stuff out of the ground with reasonable efficiency to make money at it. Something Vast and its joke management have so far failed to do.

No market-maker would ever go long on Vast. (Or on any money-losing AIM stock for that matter).
The MMs will either be heavily short, knowing that Atlas will shortly release a load of cheap shares into the market so they can settle their positions, or they will be keeping a balanced book.
Everything points to a trap being set by Vast for hapless PIs, who were conned by the promise of "no more placings" into becoming cannon fodder for Atlas.

Drill results tomorrow morning at 7am? RNS written on Monday, checked by the Nomad today?

Hi Fantasy!
There is only one reason to do a consolidation now - that is, to issue more shares. (For those who don't know, Vast can't issue shares at below the shares technical face value of 0.1p - consolidation "resets" this).
As Vast has ruled out placings ("for the foreseeable future"), this likely means that Atlas will convert their convertible loan into equity and dump the shares into the market. Maybe in one go, maybe in several tranches - who knows? It may well be that they have been spooked by the poor performance of Baita Plai to date - that is their security, after all.
My guess is that it is the Atlas shares are being forward sold right now, and that is what is driving down the share price today.

Hi TotalTrader!
Thanks for the source.
The numbers show the rhodium deficit going on much longer than I had expected.
My thinking had been that the rhodium deficit would last until around 2025-2026 and then abate (partly due to increased recycling). If these estimates are right then the good times for Tharisa (and SLP) will last several years longer.

By the way, there is a post by "gsg" on the other board that interests me. Here it is:
"Positive for THS that the Rhodium deficit is due to peak at -411k ounces in 2024 with deficit remaining at -398k ounces until 2029. THS is effectively a rhodium mining company for the mo."
Does anybody know the source for these estimates of the rhodium deficit? It would be amazing for Tharisa if rhodium was still in such severe deficit 8 whole years from now!
Also, I'm not quite sure I agree that Tharisa is a rhodium mining company. Even now, rhodium only contributes 50% of revenues, and as time goes by, I'm confident that chrome and other PGM revenues will grow.

Back to Tharisa!
Rhodium trading at $29,500/oz, $300 below its all-time high. Palladium trading at over $3,000/oz for the first time. Iridium and ruthenium both flat at their all-time highs of $6,300/oz and $440/oz. Platinum around $1,250/oz.
(These are all "ask" prices from leading PGM refiner Johnson Matthey, so they always are a bit higher than Nymex prices.)
Anyway, all good. They likely add up to an all-time high PGM basket price, but I'll leave the maths to others. What is perhaps more important is that we now have 4 months of these bonanza / windfall prices behind us, and (despite the ongoing chip shortage constraining vehicle manufacturers) the market still seems robust.

In Russian, this is called "dividing up the pelt of an unkilled bear."
What if there are no gains? What if the sale never happens?

Hi Sotolo!
Isn't this one of the market's rules?
"If everybody thinks something is sure to happen, then something entirely different will be the result."
So all the Kitco traders being simultaneously down on gold isn't necessarily a bad sign.

Hi Echo!
I'm half in agreement with you. It wouldn't surprise me if the RNS were excellent and the market didn't react (again).
But at some point the market has to wake up to the story here - surely?
As for a buy-out, I'd guess that Southern Era / ASA (owner of the nearby Klipspringer Mine, currently on care and maintenance) must be looking at BOD / Vutomi and thinking that there is money to be made from combining the assets.

We should get the initial results of the drilling this week. I reckon on Wednesday morning.

www.kitco.com/news/2021-04-30/South-Africa-s-Sylvania-doubles-net-profit-on-strong-PGM-market.html

Mr008!
Your knowledge of Vast is obviously limited.
Andrew Prelea received those shares in exchange for his directly owned share of Baita Plai, which Vast had free carried to production (in what can only be called a blatant conflict of interest).
I am grateful that the Tier 1 bank apparently forced the exchange, though, as now Andrew Prelea has to suffer dilution along with all Vast's other shareholders.

Mr008!
I'm afraid there are several direct falsehoods in what you've posted. And much else which is designed to mislead. Not good.

Hi Expart!
Thanks for the suggestions. ATM, JAN, GFM and LND are all new to me, so I'll have a look at them!

It was about £20,000 worth of shares, not £2m.
And, considering how much AP is paid, that was just a sop thrown to shareholders.
P.S. Anybody who wants a gamble on diamonds really should be looking at Botswana Diamonds (BOD), not Vast. There is a real chance that bet might pay off; Vast, well, the nag is a bit lame in three legs, and the other one fell off a furlong back.

In many ways a full Atlas conversion (of the entire debt) is probably the best of a series of bad options for shareholders.
Yes, the dilution and consequent sell-off would be brutal, but at least it would mean that Vast had a cleanish slate to start life over.
If Andrew Prelea and Roy Tucker resigned at the same time, then so much the better!
I note how small copper miner Rambler (RMM) has started to turn round after its debt-for-equity swap and now it is in the hands of credible management.

HI Mr Tibbles!
I don't think you can argue that Centamin haven't behaved very poorly with regard to West Africa and shareholders.
Information has been promised time and again, and time and again those promises have been broken. Why, I don't know. Is it really so hard to publish drill results, JORCs and MREs? Other companies seem to manage OK.
Anyway, let's see if Martin Hogan can keep his promises. As far as I'm concerned, the clock is ticking...

(Off-topic - apologies!)
I also have made money out of RMM - thanks DJRyan for the tip! I'm out for now, as the share lock-in ends soon and I believe a wave of selling will drive the share price back down to 0.45p or so. IMO, the turnaround will be slower than many expect, but it does look achievable, and I will probably put money in it again. Fellow copper miner CAML has also been good to me.
I made money in JLP earlier on in its rise. Out now. I keep a watching eye on it, because the numbers do look appealing. However, I make the company a far more risky play than its hard core fans. Zambia, resource nationalism, Colin Bird's shenanigans (see BMR and XTC), unnamed business partners, Colin Bird selling all his shares, Leon Coetzer selling his, broken promises over Kabwe - this could add up to a toxic brew.
SLP is a great company. But note they also have a seller - Africa Asia (i.e. host miner Samancor) have started selling down their big shareholding over there. I'm not sure if that won't act to put a lid on the share price for the next few months, as FIL's selling has done here. Hopefully, FIL are all but done here, but time will tell.
All told, I'm doing well this year. I also made good money on AAZ and on the WallStreetBets one day boom in silver shares. But it doesn't compare to my once-in-a-lifetime return from 2020. Nothing ever will, of course.
If you are in the mood for a reckless gamble, I'd suggest taking a look at Botswana Diamonds (BOD) - a small diamond explorer led by more or less the world expert in his field, and which I believe is on the brink of a substantial discovery at Thorny River in South Africa. If you've got any questions about that, I'll answer them over on that board.

www.kitco.com/news/2021-04-30/Impala-says-refined-PGMs-production-was-down-in-March-quarter.html