Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Here since 8.2p.
No particular target price. I suppose it depends on company performance (always excellent in my experience) and PGM market conditions.
I know it sounds crazy, but if you believe that high PGM prices are here to stay for some years (as I do), then SLP is undervalued.
FWIW, analysts and institutional investors have been repeatedly wrong (too gloomy) on SLP.

Rhodium steady at $28,800/oz, just below its all-time high; iridium steady at its all-time high at $6,250/oz; ruthenium steady at its all-time high of $420/oz; palladium at $2,807 / oz (Kitco), also near its all-time high; and platinum strengthening to $1237 / oz (Kitco), and nearing a significant break-out.
Without doing the maths, I'd guess that puts the basket price at a new all-time high!

Rhodium steady at $28,800/oz, just below its all-time high; iridium steady at its all-time high at $6,250/oz; ruthenium steady at its all-time high of $420/oz; palladium at $2,807 / oz (Kitco), also near its all-time high; and platinum strengthening to $1237 / oz (Kitco), and nearing a significant break-out.
Without doing the maths, I'd guess that puts Tharisa's PGM basket price at a new all-time high!

Just to point out that £20 would value EUA at roughly the same as Anglo-American (AAL).
I.e. this Russian early stage explorer would be worth the same as the world's largest platinum group miner, and a company which also owns De Beers (diamonds), and various copper, fertiliser, coal and other mines around the world.
Just another day on this crazy board, where reality has long since been left behind in favour of mass delusion...

As regards the actual results, the number of PGM ounces produced might disappoint slightly. The last quarter is heavy in South African holidays, and also Tharisa ("the neighbours") reported lost production from prolonged lightning storms.
The average basket price for the quarter, though, should be superb. (And today's basket price is even better).
Anyway, let's see!

Hi RMR!
You're flat out wrong- you did ask to be corrected.
If you were right, every platinum - palladium - rhodium miner on the planet is massively undervalued. Just look at the huge reserves some of them have, as well as their working mines.
I'd recommend looking at majors Sibanye Stillwater and Impala for comparison. Also Anglo-American and Norilsk Nickel. Why aren't they valued at least ten times higher than their current market caps? They have huge reserves, proven to a far higher level that EUA's. Even a moderate sized miner like Tharisa has 96m PGM ounces in indicated resource at 3.6 g/t and low-cost open pittable; the market doesn't value that at all.
I'ma afraid your method of calculation is simply incorrect.

This I think is the point.
The share price should have reacted to the original River Pipe discovery last year - but it didn't.
Nor did it react to the RNS with the 3D model of the pipe in the accompanying .pdf file. (And if you glance at it, note how many of the drill intersections end in light green (kimberlite) or olive green (kimberlite breccia) - i.e. these first six holes are only the start of defining the ore body). BTW, I admit I didn't pay enough attention to this RNS as well - if I had I would have bought heavily at the lows in January.
Nor did the market react to the analysis of the River Pipe drill samples, even though they contained not only abundant indicators but 11 diamonds - which is remarkable considering the small sample size.
Nor has it reacted to the announcement of the latest drilling campaign.
And, to top it all, there has been no reaction to the Botswana news either - that is, the acquisition of Sekaka diamonds, the Diamexstrat JV, and the hints that the legal impasse around Maibwe might soon be resolved.
So, right now, the share price is way "behind the clock". At best, it reflects the reality of Botswana Diamonds from a year ago. And a LOT has changed since then, and for the better. So, the "catch-up" in the share price, when it is finally triggered, could be quite sudden and violent.

I found this old article about the discovery of first the Sugarbird pipe (at Klipspringer), and then the Marsfontein pipe:
www.diamonds.net/News/NewsItem.aspx?ArticleID=2031
Note, the article dates from January 1998, so just before mining started at Marsfontein and the fabulous grade was fully revealed.

If you like, you can take all the numbers on the website and the RNSs and make a rough calculation of the possible volume and tonnage and therefore the theoretical value of the River Pipe. I'm not sure I should publish the calculation here, as its maths at its most reckless and irresponsible. But it has convinced me that even if they draw a blank with the new drilling, there is enough in the River Pipe alone to make a small mining operation worthwhile.

Hi Ragnar!
I also benefitted (fully) from Majedie's misfortunes over at SLP!
And, yes, I would also do likewise if Fidelity "did a Majedie" here. Today's share price is a pretty amazing bargain as it is!

I can't quite work out why Pt and Pd have popped today. I can't see any supply issues like strikes, mine flooding, or processing plant shutdowns. Maybe it's just time!
Anyway, here's a background article from the WPIC on platinum demand...
www.mining-journal.com/pgms/news/1408773/auto-demand-for-platinum-set-to-reach-pre-pandemic-levels-wpic

Hi Antharry!
Today's RNS is just a rounding exercise. But the hurry to formalise the share consolidation does make it more than likely that Vast will be issuing new equity in the first half of May. The need to pay off the next tranche of the Atlas loan is probably behind it all. Beware rampy pre-placement RNSs!
Really, the true business of Vast isn't mining and selling copper concentrate, but selling their shares to private investors.

Hi Cowichan!
You're not the only one frustrated by the lack of news about West Africa from Centamin.
It's broken promise after broken promise. Frankly, it's pathetic.
If there is some dreadful news to be told, I'd advise Martin Hogan to get it out in public as soon as possible, whilst he is still new in office, so that he can blame it all on the previous regime and make a fresh start.

I hope the reports of the Russian troops going home turn out to be true. There may have been talks behind the scenes, and maybe the Ukrainians have made enough concessions to keep the peace for now. It will be interesting to see if the fresh water for Crimea is turned back on, for instance.
Anyway, as far as I'm concerned, FXPO is a buy again. But I'll be keeping an eye on the news as well.

Hi Sewing Machine!
Speaking as somebody who has just done very well off RMM - there are two big difference between the two companies.
1. RMM have refinanced and wiped out their debts.
2. RMM have credible proven management.
IMO, Vast have no future under the current CEO and board. They are proven failures - AIM lifestyle directors of the worst sort. Leopards don't change their spots.

www.mining.com/supply-deficit-sends-palladium-price-to-all-time-high/
Rhodium $28,800, iridium $62,50 (JMAT prices).
All well with he basket price!

RaboBank analysis of situation:
www.zerohedge.com/markets/russia-ukraine-tension-current-stand-and-potential-impact
The article makes an interesting point about the potential impact on world wheat and barley prices, I think.
Yes, the Sea of Azov is really shallow. But it was used for steel product exports from Mariopol before 2014. Now the Straits of Kerch at its entrance are effectively closed. The Russians are massing basically all their modern amphibious capability in the Black Sea. For what purpose, who knows?
IMO, we're still in the "building/preparation" phase of the crisis. At some point in a few weeks' time we'll find out what Putin wants and what he is prepared to risk doing to get it.

Dear Oracle!
The vast majority of Russians - even including Navalny - will tell you that over half of Ukraine is Russian land, populated by Russian speakers, and that it belongs to Ukraine by mistake. They will admit that Lvov/Lviv/Lemberg in the West is not Russian. Opinions are divided about Kiev, as that is the ancient seat of Rus. But they are certain that Odessa, Nikolayev, Kherson, Kharkov, Dnipropetrovsk (named after a Russian Tsar!), Donetsk and so on are Russian cities.
Putin was never more popular in Russia after the invasion of Crimea. His popularity has been slipping badly of late. This may be his chance to restore his image and cement what he would see as his legacy.
Of one thing I am almost 100% sure - if the Russians do divide up the Ukraine, then FXPO's assets will fall into the Russian-claimed half, and the Swiss holding company FXPO will lose control of them. And no court will ever be able to restore them. So it would be a total loss here.
The question for me is, what are the Russians planning to do?

Hi EricEric!
Vast shares can also be exchanged for their ex-partner Botswana Diamonds shares at a ratio of around 12:1.
Since Botswana Diamonds are currently drilling what may or may not be a major discovery in South Africa, that might be like buying the best lottery ticket now on the market.

Yes, we should all remember that the Marsfontein figures are 1998 prices. So 1998 prices for the diamonds recovered, and 1998 costs of mining. Both numbers would be a lot bigger if today.
Hopefully the margin - 91%! - would remain about the same if BOD have indeed discovered "a new Marsfontein".
And who knows, maybe Marsfontein 2 might even be bigger and better than the original!