Member Info for TigerByTheTail

www.kitco.com/news/2021-04-27/Under-supplied-palladium-races-to-record-gold-awaits-Fed.html

Lord, Primary Bid is a pain of an app. Nothing works as it should.
I'll look to buy in open market tomorrow.

Hi Lucky!
Yes, this has been a subject on this bulletin board before. THS and SLP have very similar numbers of shares in issue and market caps - 273m shares and £373m mcap for SLP, and 269m shares and £397m mcap for THS.
I love SLP and I've made a lot of money investing in it. But Tharisa is a much bigger operation, with better diversification, exciting expansion plans, and a much longer mine life. In contrast, SLP offer only lower production costs and a bigger cash pile.
I believe the correct THS:SLP market cap ratio would be between 1.5:1 and 2:1. That is why my investment in the two companies is tilted (quite heavily) towards THS. The upside here should be bigger (though it is still good over at SLP).
We just need the endless selling to stop! If it is Fidelity, they must be almost out by now. I hope!

Hi DropInMonkey!
I agree with this . You can see the equity raise coming if the Kouroussa licence gets granted. I'd think 60% debt / 40% equity is likely, given the security HUM are offering isn't exactly rock-solid.
But worst CEO on AIM?!? Yes, Dan Betts has not performed well, but just look at the competition out there! I mean, you need to be a really serious criminal to win that title.

Hi JD!
James Campbell is also an investor in Vutomi. I forget the numbers, but it is not a negligible commitment.

Hi Perroverde!
The exact terms are in the original Vutomi RNS from 2017.
Essentially, BOD need to issue about 100m shares to Vutomi and pay them (I think) $300,000 to increase their stake in the JV from 40% to 72%. This isn't time-limited and is at BOD's option. So, if BOD make a big discovery at Thorny River it will happen.
Vutomi (at 28%) qualify as BOD's Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) partner, so that ticks another important box.

Hi Expart!
Good point. If they were just drilling waste rock, why bother with hauling samples away for analysis?
They can tell on site if they are drilling kimberlite or kimberlite breccia.
So, I make it that they have hit something interesting. But is it just the dyke, or is a blow or a pipe?
Nice picture of a snake, too. I wonder if they'll spot any leopards as well. This is high risk exploration in more senses than one!

Hi Iceman!
Let's see what you say when the RNS with the Atlas conversion news drops and Atlas dump a huge load of shares into the market.
The past is very much alive here. Today's RNS is a trap.

This is copied from the SLP board:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/how-palladium-became-a-really-really-precious-metal/2021/04/25/fa3d0cec-a58c-11eb-b314-2e993bd83e31_story.html
My thought: When a fairly obscure metal like palladium gets an article like this in the Washington Post, I think it's fair to say the "hot money" is pouring in, trying to force the metal up into a speculative bubble. So, I'd expect a sharp price spike in palladium in the coming weeks / months, followed by a sharp correction.
I'm hoping that rhodium won't be affected, Unlike palladium, there is no "paper" or futures market for it; it is all directly traded. So it's much harder to speculate on it, or to try and "corner" the market.

Hi Fantasy!
Issuing shares to pay off the Atlas debt (via the already issued convertible bond) is NOT technically a placing.
So, saying "no placing" like this doesn't mean no new hares are going to be issued - I'd bet very good money that they are. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if the brokers aren't forward selling them new shares into the market right now.
In short, this is just Andrew Prelea suckering in some PIs to pay off another tranche of the Atlas "death spiral" loan.

Wow! What a deceptive RNS. No "placing", yes, but a great big hole left to allow them to issue shares to pay off the Atlas debt.

Hi Echo1!
I'm fairly confident that the River Pipe alone - based on what we currently know about its size and reasonable assumptions about its grade and diamond value - is a commercial proposition.
But you're right - there is a huge spectrum of value "in play" here. The upper end is "a full Marsfontein 2"; which would imply something like $500m + in revenues at today's diamond prices, realised at a 90% margin over a couple of years of exploitation. The lower end, of course, is far less than that. Time will tell.
If you're selling on good news, it may well be me who is buying your shares!

Quarterlies for SLP come out - as regular as clockwork - at the end of the month following the close of that quarter. So Wednesday to Friday this week (given tomorrow is a public holiday in South Africa, as mentioned below).
I normally live in terror of AIM companies publishing results, as they almost always disappoint. With SLP I find myself looking forward to them with confidence that they will either be good or simply excellent.

There's a new video up on Botswana Diamonds twitter feed - I think the front of it got cut off somewhere, but in it James Campbell explains what they are doing. Take a look!

By the way, have you seen Aberdeen Standard Life have renamed themselves "abrdn"?
Can I make a prediction? That is, in the next five years time "abrdn" collapses in a financial scandal. IMO, any management who is stupid enough and spendthrift enough to think that spending a huge amount of money rebranding themselves as a hodgepodge of consonants is a good idea, is almost certainly going to wreck the company they control as well.

Yes, drilling down from the edge of the plot at an angle.
But the key question is, have they hit kimberlite already, or are they still looking for it? I don't have an answer to that.

Hi Mr. Tibbles!
Thanks for posting - as always!

Hi Fantasy!
I agree with this. Imagine where Vast would be if they had kept control of their Pickstone Peerless gold mine, and not wasted huge amounts of money on chasing after diamonds (the gossip in Harare is that they bribed the wrong people - doh!) and on useless Romanian assets like Manaila. The jury is out on Baita Plai, but there's no question Vast would have done better by exploiting its assets in Zimbabwe properly, and not going to Eastern Europe.
It's worth comparing Vast's dismal performance to that of CMCL, who did keep hold of their Zimbabwean gold mine, and who have developed it brilliantly.

twitter.com/BotswanaDiamond/status/1386641321457246212/photo/1
Another pic of the drilling rig - can't see any giveaways in this photo...

Hi Lucky!
It's about timing. Currently - for all the hype around EVs - there is nowhere near enough lithium mined to make a wholesale switchover to EVs feasible. Building a new mine is a slow process, and it will take years (maybe 5?) to rectify this situation.
As for hybrid EVs, typically they have heavier loadings of PGMs than ordinary diesel or gasoline powered vehicles. It's down to all the stopping and starting of their small ICE engines.
Platinum is actually only about 12% of Tharisa's revenues (think rhodium 50%, chrome 25%, Pt 12%, Pd 8%, Ir 4%, Ru 1%), but I agree that if it breaks out it will create new investor interest in all PGM miners. It's just how the market works.