Member Info for TigerByTheTail

Hi Eric!
Technically, Atlas converting is NOT a placing - even though it results in more shares being issued and a lower share price.
So Vast will be able to say that they were (technically) telling the truth with "no more placings for the foreseeable future."
The key question is how many shares have already been forward sold into the market on the spike (quite a few, I think), and how many more do the brokers think they can get away. Expect rampy but meaningless RNSs!
As said, it would be best to get the pain over with in one short sharp nasty shock, even though it will hurt like a root canal without anaesthetic. But is there enough market demand for all those shares?

Eric is right.
No bank will be happy that the first mine plan was abandoned as a failure and a new one put in its place.
I can't imagine who would give them a loan after that admission - and on a previously bankrupt Romanian mine as well.
As security, Baita Plai just doesn't cut it.
In my experience of banks. they'll be looking for at least 6 months of profitable operation before they would even look at it again.

HI Sam!
In all seriousness, if you are looking to invest in diamonds, then look at Botswana Diamonds (BOD). It is an incomparably better proposition than Vast.
Vast may or may not have a future as a Romanian copper miner. But its involvement in diamonds has been a complete and very expensive failure. Why on earth would the Zimbabwean authorities grant a valuable concession to a struggling and penniless AIM company, when they could easily do a deal with a giant like the Russian Alrosa?

www.miningreview.com/platinum-group-metals/unlocking-maximum-value-optimisation-strategy-pays-off-for-tharisa/

Just to add, hence James Campbell pictured in front of the Marsfontein mine with huge grin on his face this morning...

Hi Echo!
Commerciality essentially equals:
As I understand it, (Quantity (volume / tonnage) of kimberlite (and breccia) x grade (carats per hundred tonne) x diamond value per carat) - costs to mine and process.
So what do we know so far?
1. Kimberlite quantity - The River Pipe measured 80m x 40m at surface (which, as an oval = 0.25 hectares). This new pipe, as so far defined measures 75m along strike, and, according to the company, is currently is about the same size as the River Pipe. So call it another 0.25 hectares.
That compares favourably with Sugarbird (0.5 hectares) and Marsfontein (0.4 hectares). Both of these blows / pipes were commercial and were mined out. Marsfontein (only 3.5km away from the new discovery) was of course a fabulous success.
And, importantly, it seems there may be more kimberlite to come once they manage to get the drill down into the ravine, as James Campbell clearly expects the two pipes (only 100m apart now) to join together into one.
The implication of that is that the pipe will turn out to be more than 1 hectare in size.
2. Grade - the dyke system consistently grades at 60 cpht (46 - 74cpht). I'd expect that number to be a minimum figure for a blow. Remember, we already know concretely that the River Pipe contains not only plentiful diamond indicators, but also diamonds, as there were 11 gemstones in the drill samples (a remarkable occurrence).
3. Price per carat - along the dyke the price per carat is USD 120 – 220/ct. Again, I'd hope that the numbers for a blow are bigger, especially if any large stones are found, like at Marsfontein.
4. Cost of production - I can't see any reason why it should be particularly costly to mine the River Pipe. And there is an existing diamond mine on care and maintenance only 15km away.
All in all, that adds up to a clear picture of a commercial find to me. IMO, the question is more, do we have a SugarBird (i.e. a decently profitable proposition), or do we have a Marsfontein or better (i.e. a bonanza proposition)?

Hi Eric!
Ouch indeed. But still better one short bout of pain than a slow lingering "death spiral".
I reckon 0.05p old money / 5p new money will be about the bottom here.

Mr008!
Let's see how long your latest prediction lasts!
I think until tomorrow morning, when there will be an RNS announcing an Atlas conversion. The only question for me is whether it will for all of the loan, or only part of it. Better all, IMO. Get the pain over with in one short sharp shock.
MMs almost certainly short, not long on this share. And for very good reason!

Hi Crabby!
Since you've reposted it, allow me to comment that your post is full of misinformation.
E.g. Nobody knows the cost of mining and processing the ore at MT - no feasibility study has been carried out, no numbers produced and independently checked. You're basing your post on a wild and irresponsible guess from management - a guess which should never have been made public according to stock market rules. (One of many such breaches with this share - all blood red flags).
The 94m ounces figure is also misleading. Can you point me to JORCs and MREs which define these resources? I thought not. It's just another figure quoted in an irresponsible RNS approved by SP Angel, the most notorious Nomad on the market.
And no, Eurasia is very much NOT the "last non-consolidated palladium play". There are lots of PGM exploration and development projects out there. Many of them better than EUA's assets. And all of them priced much lower than this one.
I personally believe that a sale is impossible as no buyer would dream of paying more for EUA's assets than the current market cap. Actually, I'd value EUA's assets in the region of $50m to $100m.

Hi Dark Knight!
Your just proving you're an idiot. And selfish. And dangerous.
I'd leave it if I were you.

Hi Ribeye!
Can I just thanks for your efforts, and those of your colleagues, and for the efforts of the scientists who developed the vaccines so quickly.
I, for one, am truly grateful.

Yes, if there is one thing we've learned over the last few weeks, it is that James Campbell knows how to drop hints with no more than a picture!

Hi Ribeye!
I second that. It's alarming how anti-vaxxer nonsense has spread so widely, even onto these boards.
If you want to see how things could be without vaccines, take a look at India now.

It looks like they are still working at the River Pipe, even without the drilling rig. Today they are flying a drone over it, presumably to model the topography.
twitter.com/BotswanaDiamond/status/1389846876120305665

Hi Oufc!
That's how I look at Salene Chrome - as a low-cost low-risk entry to the Zimbabwe market.
IMO, it's an ideal way of testing the waters before embarking on the much bigger Karo project (96m ounces of PGMs at 3.6g/t).
In general, Zimbabwe is much improved as a mining jurisdiction since the fall of Mugabe. The newish mining minister, Winston Chitando, is actually a very competent man. I'm a (small) shareholder in Caledonian Mining (CMCL), who produce around 60,000 ounces of gold per year from a deep mine in the south of Zimbabwe. They operate without particular problems, and produce a steady profit and a good flow of dividends.

Hi Sam!
Not quite!
Botswana Diamonds (BOD) and VAST have a joint venture in Zimbabwe (that may or may not come to something one day).
BOD (who are led by James Campbell, more or less the world expert in diamond exploration, and the polar opposite in character of Andrew Prelea) ALSO have exploration assets in Botswana and South Africa.
The RNS this morning is a big exploration discovery in South Africa. So I'm afraid Vast are not invited to this party.

Since we keep talking about the Marsfontein Mine (3.5km away from the current discovery) as a comparison, I thought it might help any newcomers to post the history of that mine here:
www.slideshare.net/JamesAHCampbell1/marsfontein-case-hist-ppt-2005
Note, you should roughly double the value of the diamonds found (and the costs of digging them out of the ground) to account for more than 20 years of inflation.
From the very beginning the Thorny River exploration, the stated intent has been to find "another Marsfontein". It's too early to be definitive, but it's looking rather good...

Hi Expart!
I'd be gobsmacked if the find isn't commercial now.
John Teeling significantly states in his commentary that all four blows previously discovered on the dyke system have been mined out. And the Klipspringer Diamond Mine is sitting on care and maintenance only 15km away, and I'm sure it's a lot quicker and cheaper to reopen it than to build a whole new plant!

Just a quick heads up... Vast partner (or former partner, who knows?) Botswana Diamonds have an RNS out of some significance...

Yes, that's the result we were hoping for. Congratulations to James Campbell and Trevor Mashiolane and the rest of the team.
I'm thinking of the last photo of the drill rig on the edge of the badlands escarpment, which when James posted it on Twitter I thought was just a nice image. Now I'm thinking that this is the obstacle that prevented the team from joining up the two finds this time round. Time to get the bulldozer back in and clear a track down to the bottom of the ravine, I think!
There's no question in my mind this is a commercial find. The issue is, is it "a full Marsfontein" (or even more), or a find of lesser (but still substantial) value. (Especially when compared to BOD's current tiny market cap!)