Member Info for Thunder2040

Well it continues to slide tighter spread or not. I still don't understand how they let the institution buy in the 8th but no price bump.

It's priced for failure now, surely there must be some value in the legacy by business, else someone has kept the scale of future losses quiet which would be ethically unacceptable.

Interestingly Bermudan regulation seems to allow for a an orderly liquidation before any insolvency can be called so I think there could be a lifeline even if no immediate buyers

Imsuranceinsider are running a lot of articles about R&Q at the moment, they seemed to have the story about legacy being up for sale at start of march but being paywall.

I also don't have level ii at the moment so can't see the detailed order book but would love to hear from anyone that does.

I wondered if someone was suppressing the price as they don't want it showing all over LSE up 27%, played along a bit to test it out '14' buys ...then someone lost patience n dumped £18k twice lol, all very odd...went UT to buy or sell too shortly after now back low 5's..no volume buyer, but how did two seas capital get another 0.8% on 8th march with no real price spike...lot of questions about this book

Bid increased to 5.50 from 5.0 with no reported buys but sells trickling in, so either MMs playing around here or there is buyer they are trying to fill, anyond with L2 seems the book? I am curious with this share...after all two seas capital increased recently but the ask barely moved.

The spread is being shown at 40% here...surely MMs can offer better than that

Thr Bermundan regulator wont let it complete until legacy reserves ok'd, if that happens this is off to the races, as highly likely someone would buy the rest of R&Q then which is also ul for sale. Another thought, Randall was said to be trying to get a counter bid for accredited finances apparently...for about £23m plus some premium you can get the whole thing...sure something more to play out here over next month or so..DYOR

The key thing is the valuation of legacy reserves, if there are no skeletons it's worth far more than current MCAP...but why are Bermuda regulators getting pwc to look at it, surely R&Q must know themselves

well i expect a lot of reassurance and detail at results day presentation, they can't really go off half ****ed again with another pre results rns so will sit tight..i think it's being shorted, see this drip drip before

'at any rate, the switch to lower-risk customers may have informed the recent decision by the prudential regulation authority to reduce the group's total capital requirement by more than a third, from 18.3 to 11.9 per cent, a development which management believes “will support the group's focus on organic loan book growth”.

so how exactly could the fca or pra lower the capital requirements based on lower risk lending and then uphold an affordability complaints? haha it's ridiculous but as i said the board have gone of half ****ed in a rushed off rns and wiped out 60% of mcap by not fully explaining things..and now any short knows there is 2 weeks free hit until results and clarification

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/97XH/vanquis-banking-group-plc/company-page

Bond is trading ok, I mean look at petrofacs bond price for real distress...this is a game now, board played it's hand terribly imo

60% down and silence from the board now for next two weeks, shorts take it down and then back up before results...predictable

Equity here is worth some £600m at last check, business is profitable...if the market insists on smashing it to pieces just sell the loan book, wind up and return cash to shareholders much like the rest of the uk market

Some articles in the press are incorrectly saying the complaints are about car finance here...and as it clearly states in the RNS they relate to credit cards...so I think something needs to be said about this by the company, just tell the market the % of claims that relate to credit cards and the % that are successful and stop this ridiculous matter escalating any further..management are fools if they think it was a good idea to go half baked on detail in a rushed off RNS just before results

£60m revision to FY 24 profit estimates but mcap reduced by over £150m...I guess this takes account of some risk but still feel oversold, file it away time and come back in a few years

Needs an RNS now, else people are just going to get scared out of holding these based on uncertainty and media lies

Now trading at less than 2 times the now withdrawn earnings guidance of £75m..will still make a profit of £20m this year, and then for the following year potentially lift off...as usual UK market hammers things with the short term view

Your assumption increased net debt but factored in no additional loan assets ...implies they lost circa £400m to reduce the equity that much...I think that isn't the case unless they took material impairments no?!

Lol what part of - they have minimal car loans - don't you get?

Well car loans is a small % of their business so perhaps you can make a case for this being tarred with an incorrect brush!

On the back of 33% revenue growth unlikely, as it would get snapped up by someone else, they are already getting it too cheaply