Member Info for Thunder2040

I think a few might be thinking is the $20 million cash receipt not just going on salaries which puts the board at odds with shareholders a bit...they need to buy more stock IMO

Someone selling out it seems, odd timing

Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-09/shell-plans-to-drill-in-south-african-block-below-namibia-finds?srnd=homepage-uk

Seems there is a scramble to drill in south Africa more than Namibia at the moment, does anyone know when exactly total will drill our block?

When is the next farm in announcement expected, wasn't deadline for submission of bids for Guyana supposed to be mid July?

Yeah, I think its not a clear cut issue. There does seem to be renewed drilling and development activity in various frontier areas at the moment, reading the Falklands might finally be drilled and developed too. I expect a farm in partner to be announced in next few months for Guyana

Well I dug around and saw Exxon went on record back in the day saying it's all on their patch..so perhaps we don't get anything from Hammerhead but a farm in partner might like the idea of using any infrastructure they build for our block..clearly it adds value but the share price has not reflected it...yet

Is that true?

Thanks for pointing that out re Tullow I wasn't aware of that.

I am far from expert on the matter but red wine point is logical... Exxon did not intervene when tullow relinquished their stake. On a side note how do you practically prove that 10% of hammerhead is in our prospect..anyone any thoughts on that?

I think Guyana offers a real prospect of healthy returns for Eco..what I don't get is why tullow and Total left it..surely they would know Exxon were going to develop Hammerhead?

At least it's cashflow breaking even pretty much now as debt debt has not shifted. Not setting the world alight but the lack of detail does suggest something going on in terms of a sale

I think everyone is fed up of the uncertainty now, just finalise a take over or revert to normal business is what I would like to see..with more regular communication..just hiding behind a bid situation so they can give limited updates isn't cutting it anymore.

My only thinking on a transaction such as a placing was that clearly they are still negotiating something so it could be that...I do think they need financing to reduce the debt and expand the rentals

The market makers dropping it as they have been drip drip fed too much stock the last few weeks. The AGM update was a placeholder expect something is in the pipeline hence the minimal disclosure...not sure it's a full buy out could be a placing who knows but I guess not long to wait until interims

As per financial statements signed in March 2024:

'In November 2023 the Company entered into an offer period

and has subsequently engaged with a number of interested

parties to determine if a potential sale of the business could

deliver greater shareholder value. No sales discussions have

concluded and the business therefore remains in an

offer period.'

As per RNS pre AGM:

'musicMagpie plc has been in an offer period since 27 November 2023 during which time various conversations have taken place with interested parties. Several discussions remain ongoing and as such the Company remains in an offer period. There can be no certainty that any offer for the Company will be made, nor as to the terms of any such offer. The Panel Executive has granted a dispensation from the requirements of Rule 2.4(a) and Rule 2.4(b) of the Takeover Code such that the Company is not required to identify any potential offeror with which the Company is in talks, or from which an approach has been received.'

A few things:

-I find it interesting that they said no sales discussions have concluded, when BT and Aurelius both said they would not bid. Surely those sales discussions did conclude with no offer being made;

-Why did they walk away so fast - was there never serious interest, did they not want to be named or were the valuations so far apart that things ended fast?;

- Several discussions remain ongoing - rather than just one, so are there still more than one interested party - are BT and Aurelius still involved I wonder? Does the existing PE backer want it for themself?

- Is there literally nothing concrete and this is just being dragged out for some other purpose - like there is basically no chance its getting bought but they want to keep interest going;

- Some form of other transaction where there is a capital raise or placement rather than full sale;

Last year the pre close half year statement gave actual figures, whereas that AGM trading statement gave none. So within the next month they need to publish interim figures so we can see how they are doing.

I think there is unlikely to be a bid currently, and I think the fact that this is dragging so long is no a problem. if they believed in the business surely they can turn it around. I feel like certain facts are being left out of this.

I noticed a few things when looking under the hood at the FY23 results too - from ops the business is cash generative. The increase in debt was to buy inventory for rentals, and can be readily turned back into cash if they so choose. User figures are actually growing and the crack down on fake stamps that rivals may have sued must boost their position on resale platforms..I just think they need to focus on getting the bottom line profitable as they have alluded to. The margin improved in FY23 so I believe they know what is required here. Fail to see how the business is not able to turn around, grow and make a profit then be refloated at a massive premium if it were taken private. The clothes side of the business needs some refinement but I am sure there are lots of household products that could be resold.

In 2011, LDC, a private equity firm invested £10m in Music Magpie.

'Sales in 2009-10 from from £2.5m to £11.3m and are expected to hit £30m in the year to the end of May. Earnings are expected to have increased from £1.5m to £4m in the same period.'

Someone can buy the whole company now for less than the investment, and sales are £130m+ I think if a profit can be turned soon, this would be worth multiples of current level

P.S to address you comment about averages, I think Hanson includes the execution price of his tranches on the 8.3, so I think your ballpark figure is about right. I would think that the end game is close, others have said they expect there to be a trading update for H1 but I noted that the AGM statement was issued with comment on trading, but no numbers - this wasn't the case last year I believe - was that a stop gap - perhaps, but to be negotiating this long I would have thought it must be nearing conclusion either way now

If you go on Hanson's linkedin you will see he just left his previously sold business and founded Propeller Holdings - I presume that is his new investment vehicle. He could be buying for part of that or being involved in a MBO but its pure speculation at the moment. I just fail to see why Peter Hargreaves would out of the blue take 4% of the business unless something was in the offing.