Member Info for Thunder2040

Going blue..

Dunno, sell side is stacked heading to close - someone is playing this so hard.

They are trying to suppress this as we speak and it will just break through if oil kicks on..

Depth on the buy side has improved now, it was being played. Don't let them have your shares cheap.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/26/saudis-opec-deny-discussing-lowering-oil-prices-with-trump-report.html

If he is that desperate its pretty clear they expect severe upwards pressure on oil price. Market over reactiom applified by the amount of derivatives being traded IMO.

I would buy this dip...oil will recover by next week

Slowly slowly catchy monkey...a little patience required

I expect 110p today

Chevron deal? Do you not mean the Conoco asset sale is a done deal?

They have form, can't swallow that one Mitch, but fair point.

The risked market value of those assets at present is rolled into current SP theoretically Tarth - but I agree I think current market value is too low....but you could say that about lots of midcap oilers atm. So perhaps a sector thing.

If we are trading at a discount due to debt I can't see it anymore - bonds are usually a good indicator of how the market sees that risk and they are trading above par! Compare that to back in 2016 when they were at a 50% discount.

Another thing to consider is, if someone is going to buy PMO they would be better served building to 29.9% and we have had no TR1s as such. So I actually doubt the price lockdown is related to a takeover tbh.

The brokers have all kissed ass with their targets which usually means they are after fees in a capital markets transactions and want to curry favour ahead of this.

A lot of dimensions to this at the moment - just hope for once us small guys get some +ve from it all.

Hi Tarth. My main doubt of the takeover stems from the debt. The MC at a premium plus net debt is what, £833m+20% (call it a £1b) and circa £1.75b of debt, so say £2.75-3b. That for production of 80kbopd/day. Chrysaor just paid £2b for 72kbopd/day. PMO has tax losses and some good upside Zama and Sealion so my 20% premium is conservative but deal would still be more pricey than what we just saw.

Acquisitive players in NS include Ineos, Dalek and Chrysoar plus Hitec from my research. Conoco assets are sold, leaving the Chevron assets or a buyout of a PMO or Enquest if someone is that way inclined.

Interestingly as per this article PMO have apparently already bid on Chevron:

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/4/15/delek-ineos-emerge-as-front-runners-for-chevrons-uk-fields

God knows how that would be funded, probably need to cough up at least your holding again and some in a placing.

We will be the last to know whatever deal gets cut. Transparency is near non existent in this sector.

As I said a few months ago, I would be happy for PMO to concentrate on developing the rest of world assets but this does not seem to be in the agenda at the moment.

MRD, you may not remember but a while ago we exchanged posts on the seasonality of oil - it seems strange that people are not mentioning driving season - and the end of refinery maintenance season. Q2 is very bullish for oil based on the last few years - so I agree a rise is on the cards and have been surprised I could buy back in here still hovering around 100p. I don't see that the macros are any less favourable than last year when POO rose to 80s - if you read the crap the media keep pumping out anyone would think they themselves are holding this down. I think the upside has been massively understated.

Hawkey - with respect to Goldman - it could be VWAP related for financing (although targets reported are fast being snapped up) or shorting from people hedging oil and golman just hedging those positions.

Either that or potential buyout from someone - however as PMO board and everyone else can see what is going on from all the RNSs. PMO have to disclose market sensitive info - so Goldman can't be acting in a privileged capacity unless they want a call from the FCA. So this implies- Goldman are not acting in concert with management...else they are breaking the law. Which means there is a chance some party external is calling the shots...motive still uncertain.

Sorry Woodstock, was not trying to be harsh there, assumed it was a typo.

Have you read this:

http://www.indivior.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/INDV-Indictment-Press-Release-FINAL-.pdf

And also this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/03/business/glaxosmithkline-agrees-to-pay-3-billion-in-fraud-settlement.html

Quote re: Glaxo settlement which offers some indication of a benchmark:

Despite the large amount, $3 billion represents only a portion of what Glaxo made on the drugs. Avandia, for example, racked up $10.4 billion in sales, Paxil brought in $11.6 billion, and Wellbutrin sales were $5.9 billion during the years covered by the settlement, according to IMS Health, a data group that consults for drugmakers.

“So a $3 billion settlement for half a dozen drugs over 10 years can be rationalized as the cost of doing business,” Mr. Burns said.

The value of Indivior sales was far below Glaxo. Case for defense seems strong to me as well. It is also reported there is a mutual indemnity clause with RB.

Based on that plus the further boost of the major shareholder buying I am happy to hold this for a recovery.

All IMO. DYOR. Good luck!

This is now out of our hands Coolkid, those with agendas and positions to trade at an II level will move this now for a while. Likely long PIs will have their faith tested. I think they were fishing for stops earlier. Having traded this a bit in last 12 months, it is partial to make pretty large swings.

With the level of intellect on show here tonight I think you are better of taking a lottery ticket guys...that was 2.2m shares UT Woodstock.

If they own so much I doubt they need more to loan out...No one opens 18% shorts on healthcare stocks

Fishing for more imo

Lower volume than yesterday. I think it's one to tuck away until next update tbh.

To clarify if it was indeed a bit just look at the bid ask at time of trade