Member Info for Thronegames

maybe they know something ahead of tomorrow's trading update?

highflyman. It depends on what you do with the proceeds of the sale. I wouldn't give it to a bank or buy a new car.....makes more sense to leave it invested?

fossilfool, I love reading your analysis. If it's on a downward trajectory from here to 3.16, shouldn't I still hold given it may be 3.78 in November? The information / predictions you provide are really interesting but I guess are only of use to a trader of the stock? Your predictions are so interesting and on this occasion you provide actual predicted prices for BP sp and for Brent. That's really useful because it allows the reader to record your predictions and see if they are validated in future reality. Do you have a record yourself of what you predicted in March for example? Did it materialise afterwards? I am not in any way negative towards your posts. Keep them coming, please! But I reserve the right to be sceptical and to question and challenge your predictions! Thank you genuinely for your thoughtful analysis and for your posts here.

As I said in a previous post, I found the SP fall on dividend payment date puzzling. I can understand the drop on ex div date. But now I have discovered a reason for the fall on the payment date as follows.
I held shares in RDSB and sold them. But due to my timing I ended up getting paid a scrip dividend of 3 shares with a value of £58 or so in my account. But to sell them it would cost me maybe £15! So I should have waited until the dividend payment date to sell the lot. I would have thought that the dividend reinvestment plan on the payment date should have counterbalanced this negative selling impetus in the market. I am learning and thought I would share with you fellow dividend- fans.

Well done, caitlin! I'm looking at selling one third of my holding. Where will you invest your profits? I'm looking at everything the City hates. Lloyds Lol. also Evraz because they are Russian infidels. Rio on the radar too; iron ore price is at a low ebb but not sure the tide has gone out. Show your hand, Caitlin!

seenitdoneit, you say "but again, the SP loses more than the dividend today"; when you say "again" are you indicating that this has happened before? It's a bit odd if that's the case - leaves me scratching my head - particularly as one would expect the opposite with automatic reinvestment of dividends for those who are in DRIP schemes.

Spights, I love your optimism every week on the Friday closing price. You are always 'bottom of the list'; i.e highest price! This week it is justified perhaps! You will be justified! I hope!
I've been holding on and I wonder if a previous poster is right about the idea that traders only get back to their desks in September? That's an interesting idea if it's true. I don't agree that the move upwards in SP is due to some sudden change of perception; "we hate oil / oh no! actually we need oil after all!". My take is that the big buyers know that BP shares are TREASURE Based on next Qtr earnings due 2nd Nov. This post is a total ramp to influence the big Pension Fund players. These people drool over my posts because they know I am a natural genius.

licker, my sense is hat you are right in your analysis. I understand people selling now but the upward momentum here is unmistakeable. There will inevitably be a pullback in advance of further rise. It has been a disappointing share for me over the last year. I sold 25% at 3.10 ish. But the remainder is still about 10% of my portfolio. Nobody has explained the sudden change in sentiment over the last week. I'm holding. The trend is your friend.

I think everyone here would accept that BP has been undervalued by the market for about 6 months or so since the oil price started to climb above 60. But does anyone have an idea as to what's behind the sustained rise in the SP over the last week? Why now as opposed to 3 months ago?

There is also the possibility that DEC has over-paid for futures. based on current gas prices.

Smithy, that is a great post and so enjoyable to read! However I don't think there is going to be a sudden U-turn on the Green agenda; the narrative is too firmly embedded in the global psyche at this stage. Smithy it's people like you that ruined Greta's childhood, lol! For a proper re-rating of this share price however it is the narrative about BP that will have to slowly change - from dirty oil producer to a leader of change into the golden age of green energy. Q3 results won't cut it I think and we could be stuck in a 290 to 320 channel for a long time; I hope I'm wrong. I'm not surprised by some posters here trading within that channel and I may do so myself if that range persists for another quarter.

My understanding is that many people receive a scrip dividend so there is automatic reinvestment in buying more shares . Therefore the SP is more likely to rise on and after the payment date. In theory at least.

Judicious exposure to AIM stocks worked well for me. Made a fortune on EUA and still invested there as I think there is huge potential. Also HZM but sold too soon. My BP shares are still the mainstay of my portfolio along with LGEN, IMB and DEC and a couple of mining stocks. Though I hold ARCM, EUA, CCZ and RMM as high risk/reward stocks on the AIM.

MarkGo are you short on BP?

My rationale for selling is that I will have the opportunity to buy at a lower price in a different, more accessible pension account. I know I am taking a big risk and that the RNS could land on Monday. Mine is a complex situation and my posts are consistent. with my purpose. I will buy next week again in my other pension account, hopefully at a lower price. I may be wrong. Who knows?! Either way I have made a lot from this share on the way up.

I've been invested for at least two years (about 6 months prior to suspension). I have made a lot of money here. I used my profits to buy other stocks. This share has singlehandedly saved my portfolio from disaster during the COVID collapse. I have no loyalty to the EUA ship or to Septic Lil. I was extremely fortunate to have bought in at 5p and to have sold on the way up.

I know I am taking a huge risk today by selling. I will buy again at a lower price if I can get that. I bought in a pension account that is inaccesible and I have now sold my holding in that account. I plan to buy in a pension account that is accessible. My situation is complex to most investors who post here, I would say.
My plan is to buy again in my other account if the price drops. Huge risk as I see substantial rewards here. I will probable be back in on Monday using my accessible account.

I bought at average 5p about 2 years ago and I sold and made profits on the way up after the suspension. Mistake. But I am refusing now to sell my remaining holding. The problem with the bottom drawer strategy is looking at the share price every day vs. every year. And that's why I got ripped off on selling. So I have now decided to hold for years; win or lose. Maybe this time next year I'll sell half again. But not today. The fundamentals are too compelling.

Yes Evraz was a star for me. I sold out 6 months ago, hoping to get in lower. Kicking myself. Missed special div. Now have to get in a a higher price. So stupid of me.

Hi northfolk, I enjoy all posts here. I am not a trader of this share. I'm here for the dividend and holding for a couple of years maybe. Now if I see 25% captital gain in 2 years from my 1.13 entry, then I may very well decide to sell. I have no idea whatsoever which direction the SP will go. I'm just 'holding onto my pearls' as the Americans say. I'm in the same position with LGEN, IMB and BP. Investing is a gamble of sorts in that you stand to lose only some of your capital, not all. The dividend 'softens' that risk for me.

Sell during run-up to divi sure is an interesting strategy and I'll keep a closer eye on SP behaviour before and after ex div date. I tried the opposite a couple of years ago trying to capture the divis and then selling some time afterwards. It didn't work too well for me!

What leaves my scratching my head is WHY a SP would fall multiples of the divi amount after the ex div date? For the strategy you recommend to work, this trend has to repeat itself with predictable regularity. Can anyone answer my 'WHY'?