Member Info for thewakokid

The Lie Teller,

£12.75m at say 10% net profit = £1,275,000 = P/E of a tad over 24 based upon the current market cap.

Wowza.

TWK - Back from the Grand National Festival. Super fun with Archie from the Wirral and his family.

Shatinyourpants,

As if I care pal.

TWK

The Lie Teller,

What is your job at ALRT?

You are clearly a company plant.

TWK - So far ahead

The Lie Teller,

An idiom is a phrase or expression whose meaning cannot be understood from the literal definition of its individual words. These expressions are figurative, culturally specific, and often function as shorthand for a more complex idea, such as "breaking a leg" meaning "good luck".

Were you suspended when they taught Use of English at school? That would certainly explain a lot.

TWK - Back from a jolly spiffing lunch with fellow Pembrokians.

Covidninja,

"Individuals of this stature" refers to people who possess a high level of importance, reputation, or social standing. When someone is described this way, it indicates they are highly respected and recognised for their significant accomplishments, influence, or exceptional ability within their field.

I appreciate the compliment pal, I really do.

TWK - Way out in front

The Lie Teller,

Going "off-kilter" means becoming unbalanced, Askew, or not functioning properly, either physically or metaphorically. It describes things out of alignment (like a crooked picture), situations that are not quite right, or people feeling "out of sorts" or, as Merriam-Webster notes, slightly unconventional.

If only you had a grasp on the proper use of English. What a chatte.

TWK - Comfortably out in front.

The Lie Teller,

"What a guy" is a common idiomatic phrase used to express admiration, fondness, or sometimes light hearted irony regarding a man's character or actions. It typically means "[he is] such a great, remarkable, or distinctive man".

TWK - Out in front as usual.

Aimless,

"Dessert"? You really are showing your complete lack of class and sophistication.

It is "pudding" boyo. Spotted Di*k with lashings of custard is one of my favourites.

TWK - Still winning.

The Lie Teller,

We Pembrokians will always call the restaurant Le Gavroche even though it is now named Bonheur.

Some traditions never die.

Oh and regarding Quaglino's, private lunchtime dining is available on weekdays. I would not expect the great unwashed who post on this BB to know that.

TWK - Winning as usual

The Lie Teller,

I am not a betting guru boyo. No, I am the genius that created a software platform which identifies, with a high rate of success it must be said, which horse(s) to bet on (Each Way, not on the nose and flat races only).

If I have time today, which I may not (I am off for lunch at Le Gavroche with some fellow Pembrokians which is always jolly good fun), I will post some tips for tomorrow's meeting at Yarmouth.

As for the Grand National here is a tip, the average price of the winner this century has been just under 24-1.

TWK - Winning.

OMG, The Lie Teller wears speedos!!

TWK - Winning.

Covidninja,

SP up, spread down translates into MMs trying to shift all those sold shares me thinks.

TWK - Winning.

Exaggerator (AKA The Lie Teller),

How do you know that I am short on ALRT pal? Please present your evidence you proven menteur.

TWK - Heating up some porridge.

Now, who would I take most seriously, OpenAI's Warren AI or jimmy-boy-lazyco*k?

A tough one but, on balance, I would got for Warren AI.

TWK - Baiting the hook.

9-18,

You are being a tad harsh on yourself describing your post as all waffle, but I do admire your self awareness.

TWK - Boiling the kettle.

Defence Holdings Plc (LSE:ALRT) is up an astonishing 2,788.9% over the past year, now trading at £1.31—yet its fair value estimate is just £0.01, signalling a potential downside of <pro>-48.3%</pro>. The disconnect between price and fundamentals is dramatic, raising serious questions about sustainability.

Share

🚨 Price Skyrockets, Value Lags

Jaw-dropping return: The stock has surged 2,788.9% in 12 months, easily outpacing almost any benchmark.

Fair value warning: With a fair value of only £0.01, the current price implies wild speculation or a disconnect with fundamentals.

Financial health: The overall score is a precarious 0.1x—meaning the company has just 10 cents of liquid assets for every £1 of short-term obligations.

📉 Fundamentals on Shaky Ground

Profitability: Negative EBITDA (£-1.74M) and operating income (£-1.95M) point to ongoing losses.

Balance sheet: The only bright spot—ALRT holds more cash than debt, but the extraordinarily low current ratio and negative debt/equity (-4.6%) signal potential liquidity stress.

No dividend: Investors receive no yield to cushion risk.

📊 Technicals: Momentum, But Mixed Signals

Short-term technicals: Strong buy signals on hourly and daily timeframes; longer-term (monthly) is a "strong sell."

Indicators: MACD and Ultimate Oscillator suggest bullish momentum, but oversold signals (StochRSI) and several "sell" readings (CCI, ROC, Williams %R) flag caution.

Moving averages: Short-term averages are bearish, but longer-term (SMA/EMA 100 and 200) are bullish—classic late-stage momentum or reversal setup.

⚠️ Red Flags and Speculative Nature

Extreme valuation gap: The market price far exceeds any reasonable fair value calculation.

Liquidity risk: With a current ratio of 0.1x, even small cash flow disruptions could spell trouble.

Speculation over substance: The rally appears driven by momentum, not fundamentals—classic "greater fool" territory.

🧠 Key Takeaway: Know Your Risk

Defence Holdings Plc is a perfect example of a stock where the price story and the business reality have parted ways. This is ultra-high risk territory—potential for more wild moves, but the underlying numbers don’t support the current valuation. Unless you’re a seasoned speculator with a tight risk plan, caution is warranted.

From Construction Enquirer 2 days ago:

The Building Safety Regulator has launched a fresh recovery plan to cut long-running delays on higher-risk building cladding remediation schemes.

It includes setting up a new dedicated taskforce, lower caseloads and a promise to get average decision times below 12 weeks by December 2026.

TWK - Ready to invest more wonga once the SP settles down

No sign of ALRT being invited.

Whitespace probably worried that Rouh n' Ready would turn up unshaved and that Andy Pandy would turn up dressed as a rough sleeper.

Whitespace

Last week, we joined Oracle FedForum 2026 in Washington DC alongside partners and customers from across the US federal ecosystem.

FedForum is Oracle’s flagship government technology event, bringing together federal agencies, industry, and partners to explore how AI, cloud, and data platforms are being used to modernise operations and advance mission outcomes.

With over 1,000 attendees and strong representation from the Oracle Defence Ecosystem, the focus was clear: how AI moves from experimentation into operational use.

At Whitespace, that’s exactly where we operate.

Chief Partnerships Officer, Andrew Webber, showcased our Operational Learning capability (Saga) and real-world deployments in Defence, including our work during Operation HIGHMAST.

Not theory. Not pilots.

Live capability, deployed in weeks, in environments where most AI simply doesn’t work.

What’s clear is this: demand for sovereign, deployable, and governed AI is accelerating globally.

And we’re seeing that momentum first-hand.

Next week, the Whitespace team will be on the ground with Oracle in Singapore and Japan, continuing these conversations with partners and customers across the Asia-Pacific region

GSA Capital Partners LLP, a London-based hedge fund, reportedly opened a short position against Defence Holdings PLC (ALRT) on April 1, 2026. While the specific investment rationale of a hedge fund is not always public, the context surrounding the move suggests the short position is a bet against the company's rapid, highly volatile transition.

Based on market commentary and company performance, the potential reasons for the short position include:

Pre-Revenue Status & Execution Risk: Despite rebranding and pivoting towards AI-driven defence software, Defence Holdings is largely operating as a pre-revenue or early-revenue SME. The short likely reflects scepticism regarding the company's ability to turn conceptual partnerships—like those with Whitespace Global—into signed, large-scale Ministry of Defence (MoD) contracts.

High Volatility and Valuation Swings: The stock has shown extreme volatility, recovering strongly in 2025 before facing fluctuations. A short position is often placed to bet against such a rapid price rise, anticipating a correction back to lower valuation levels.

Need for Further Capital/Dilution Risk: Reports suggest that while recent fundraises provided temporary runway, the company's ambitious, fast-paced growth strategy will likely demand significant additional capital, creating a high probability of shareholder dilution.

Intense Competition: The defence technology sector is competitive, and established contractors are also rapidly developing AI capabilities. The short position may reflect doubt that the newly rebranded "start-up" can successfully disrupt the market and secure a stable niche against larger, established firms.

Shorting Ahead of Catalyst Event: Interestingly, the short was placed just before anticipated news regarding a Sovereign AI Fund launch and police AI trials, indicating the short seller believes the risks (mentioned above) outweigh the potential positive news.

In summary, GSA Capital's move appears to be a bet that Defence Holdings is overvalued for its current development stage, faces high execution risk, and requires more capital to execute its ambitious turnaround plan.

Exaggerator,

There you go again, making baseless assumptions and getting the wrong answer.

Fact #1 - My model is based upon flat racing only, as the jumps introduce too many unknowns.

Fact # 2 - The flat racing season in the UK is late March to mid/late October - around 30 weeks.

Fact #3 - Gross revenue of £600K per season.

Fact #4 - Overheads of circa £225K per annum - includes ongoing software development (now outsourced to a company in Vietnam), admin assistant (part time), days out at the races for subscribers etc etc.

Fact #5 - Pre tax profit of circa £375K.

Fact #6 - Post tax profit of circa £280,000.

So, jarhead, not the £1 million a year that you say I earn.

And as I said in a previous post, we do not advertise so that the bookies don't try and shut us out.

TWK - Putting the world to rights one jarhead at a time.