Member Info for ThetaDecay

Informative video. Would recommend taking a look at USA Rare Earth Inc (USAR). Recently bought out British company LCM which is pretty much the only company in the west that has the ability to produce rare earth alloys in its Cheshire facility. The company specializes in what's called "midstream" processing - taking rare earth materials and converting them into metals, alloys, and strip cast products that serve as essential feedstock for permanent magnet production and the sole Western provider of critical defense materials such as Samarium Cobalt metal.

I've got a basket of Rare earth stocks and GROC is one of my moonshot holdings.

THG is a hold for me, there are other companies I'm more bullish on but I would rather own THG than DEBS.

What people don't realise is that US annexing Greenland will probably be a positive for GROC.

You have to remember, up until recently Denmark and the EU have blocked or been slow to approve/review projects in Greenland, with US in control we could see a better tax regime and projects being fast forwarded.

Remember, 86% of Greenlanders support Independence from Denmark, if US can offer them more poltiical freedom and double the $500 million subsidy that Denmark gives Greenland, then I don't think there will be much resistance from Greenlanders.

I'm okay thanks. I don't see the reason to buy Boohoo just because they changed their name to a well known brand giving oldies nostalgia. Why would I invest in a loss making company who's revenue has gone from £2 billion in 2021 to £800 million in 2024? Bohoo lost popularity with younger generation and is a dying business, changing the name to DEBS won't change that.

Atlantic Lithium is Australian, their HQ is in Australia, management is in Australia and their listing is in Australia. I highly doubt they would have been a part of this conference just because they are dual-listed on AIM.

Yep Oil is going rise on Monday. Said this was a real possibility a month ago.

Don't glean anything from OTC listings. ALLIF is extremely illiquid, only $5000 worth of trades shared and it went up 13.78%. Literally useless information. A11 at least has some liquidity and the Australians love their miners but they have been less bullish than UK traders.

CATL has since reopened the Jianxiawo mine and will resume full output in a month or two. I think its more likely you would see a bid from Gangfeng who can use their supply export model that they have used in the Mali Goulamina mine now Ghana have a tariff free deal with China on raw minerals. Could see Sinomine RG make a move into West Africa or even Zijin which has stated intentions to enter the Lithium market. CATL is a long shot but still possible since for CATL it makes sense to mine closer to the source of their production.

Now is the best time to invest in African Lithium. A lot of Lithium and royatly co's know this and have their eyes on Ewoyaa and ALL at this cheap price with demand in China and west set to increase over the next 5 years.

Overall I think we will be able to achieve $30 million AUD for 1.5-2% offtake, which will pay for most our costs, along with some well timed share offerings, we could transform into a company that has the balance sheet to get into a peak production state.

https://investingnews.com/rock-bottom-strategic-window-for-ground-level-lithium-investment-in-2025/

Once we get ratification, I think we will start to see a lot of royalty offtake deals coming through, that should help with the dilution required of building up the mine.

"Lithium Royalty Corp Enters into Agreement to Acquire Cash Flowing Goulamina Royalty Operated by Ganfeng Lithium. LRC enters into agreement to acquire a 1.5% Trailing Product Sales Fee (TPSF) royalty on the world-class producing Goulamina lithium project from Leo Lithium for A$40 million"

$40 Million AUD for 1.5% is very solid and although ALL might not get quite the same rates, I think we can see similar positive deals soon enough.

Just for comparison, Goulamina mine is the largest Lithium deposit in West Africa, operated by Chinese Ganfeng Lithium Co, it has 108 Mt of provable mineral resources with a grade of 1.45% Li₂O. Our Ewoyaa mine has 36.8 Mt of provable resource with a grade of 1.24% Li₂O. So although Ewoyaa has 1/3 of the total Mineral resource, it has similar grades and is in a better Jurisdiction (Ghana > Mali). I expect similar deals with royalty co's and potentially a buyout from Gangfeng itself, since China is in a Lithium deficit and needs raw Li spud at an extreme rate.

Will be an interesting next few months.

https://batteriesnews.com/lithium-royalty-corp-enters-into-agreement-to-acquire-cash-flowing-goulamina-royalty-operated-by-ganfeng-lithium/

Kenneth Ashigbey seems like a smart guy

China losing their largest source of Lithium: https://chinaglobalsouth.com/analysis/chile-election-lithium-triangle-geopolitics-china-us/

Meanwhile lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium cobalt oxide prices have increased over 100% in a few months, spelling trouble for Chinese EV makers:

https://carnewschina.com/2025/12/14/chinese-lithium-battery-material-suppliers-announced-price-increase-as-high-as-15/

Now is the perfect time to start building

I have done some research and calculations into my models, I am predicting GreenRoc will require around £500 million in costs to get the Amitsoq Mine and the pilot AAM Processing Plant to stable production levels.

Using similar cases in the past , I am predicting:

Debt financing (50-60%): $250-300M (EIFO pathway, project finance)

Equity financing (25-35%): $125-175M

Strategic/Offtake prepayments (10-15%): $50-75M

GreenRoc might get away with 20-25% offtake payments for a larger miner for a supportive role in the process so I think it's possible we see less than $150 million in equity financing.

Assuming on-schedule timeline (near/at first production), successful DFS with results in line with PEA, project valued at 0.25-0.35x NPV (typical for near-production juniors), mine NPV (post-tax 8%): $179M, processing plant NPV: $621M, then combined NPV: ~$800M.

My model calculates on a EOY 2028 timeline:

Bull Case: 0.40x NPV ($320M), £260M EV, 1.5B diluted shares, Target 17-18p

Base Case: 0.30x NPV ($240M), £195M EV, 2.3B diluted shares, Target 8-9p

Bear Case: 0.15x NPV ($120M), £97M EV, 3.0B diluted shares, Target 3-4p

Looks a decent risk/reward here on a long-term basis. I'm dipping my toes.

Aren't you the same guy who said anyone who thinks rat won't happen this session is blind and then accused me of not being a shareholder?

Love the new rampers.

Do you have a similarweb subscription? The shopper intelligence would give really useful information but its $15k per year.

@StrummerJones Honestly not sure which way it will go, it all depends what was discussed in the high level talks the last month. NDC is pushing for Nigeria style investment from CCP, once the tarriff free trade deal on raw minerals get passed (recently announced) we could see a move. I wasn't sure if they would offer a buyout after ratification or before, still can't predict but the bleeding/delaying the past year has given CCP a good chance to buy it cheap. Put all together, I think its unlikely we will get 30p+ like the Assore offer a few years ago. Still I think it will be higher than 7p unless they go the painful route.

https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/nigeria-attracts-dollar13bn-chinese-lithium-investment-amid-push-for-clean-energy/b4nj9yf

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nigeria-open-two-chinese-backed-lithium-processing-plants-this-year-2025-05-26/

The writing has been on the wall for a while if you look into the China-Ghana dealings, what NDC members/think tanks/lobby groups have been saying then this shouldn't come as a surprise. Ultimately its out of Atlantic Lithium's hands and the NDC think that time is on their side. As i've said before, lets hope we get a good buyout deal from Zijin or another CCP associated miner that has been in high level meets with NDC.

There is still a chance it goes our way (ALL shareholders) but time is against us.

The thing is, the NDC don't want it to pass. I've laid out my theories in the past but there is no will from the NDC to get this through.

MM now has a 19.2% voting stake, up from 7.1% before the dilution. Owns 25% of the company now. Once he gets to 30%, might see a P/E take private with him getting a better deal than regular shareholders a la Ingenuity.

Looks like they got most of the tax bills passed today at least