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The main problem is occupancy rate. If their beds are empty then the upgraded Canary Wharf facility will become a major cash burn due to its location and cost. If they can get improved utilisation rates (90%+ occupancy) then the business will fly but again it comes down to contract wins. A very binary bet

Adjusted EBITDA margin ahead of expectations. This is due to cancellation fees and cost control measures such as closing portions of their available beds, not exactly amazing news but still goes down to contract wins at this point. Takeover 100% a potential but I doubt the big US CRO's will be interested in human challenge trial/vaccine bed facilities during this current glut, they are already struggling as it is (looking at ICON, IQVIA and CRL). Still the people commenting about cash burn obviously haven't researched the company at all.

How is the cash burn unsustainable? The cash burn last year came from acquisitions, the reeal EBITDA will be slightly negative or close to breakeven, even with the contract cancellations. Yes obviously Hvivo is still going to need to secure some contracts this year but with their £14 million cash balance, taking out acquisitons they should be able to survive for a long time as long as their contracts don't dry up and their dividend seems safe still.

It all goes down to the same question, will they secure contracts in 2026, this is still to be seen.

It's really demand from China/Asia and Europe. US will have plenty of home grown supply from their new mines, Thacker Pass, when built by LAC, will eventually cover a lot of US lithium needs. China will be in a deficit. Remember South America holds the majority of potential Lithium reserves and they are turning against China, putting a massive dent in their future supply, they will be looking to China friendly regions like Africa.

https://chinaglobalsouth.com/analysis/chile-election-lithium-triangle-geopolitics-china-us/

https://colombiaone.com/2026/01/16/lithium-latin-america-china/

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/global-lithium-market-poised-more-094200609.html

I've already said that Jianxiawo lithium mine in Yichun has been given the greenlight to fully restart production early next month.

The suspension is temporary and the Chinese government announced that it will resume full production very soon.

https://cnevpost.com/2025/12/24/catl-jianxiawo-mine-expected-resume-production-chinese-new-year/

CATL want Lithium mines close to their source of production so Asia/Mongolia region, they are not the type of company to buy a mine in Africa, perhaps a royalty deal but I highly doubt they will buy the mine. Its more likely to be Africa focused Chinese miners like Gangfeng or Zijin.

So the Jianxiawo lithium mine is literally a non-issue now and is in the past, not worth speculating or talking about it.

Going by DFS if production is going smoothly we would see:

Annual EBITDA: ~US$300M, assuming base sustaining capex (-$30M) and corporate costs, taxes, debt service we would get $200M free cash flow to equity

Atlantic's 40.5% share: so we could see 81M/year in profits.

Assuming Long State placing and rounding up to 1 billion shares outstanding, and assuming a 25% payout ratio we would see somewhere along the lines of $20.25M a year in payouts. Thats about 1.5 pence dividend, so at current price close to 17% dividend yield.

Bull Case would be (+30% price: US$1,833/t): Free cash flow to Atlantic: ~$105M, Dividend pool (25%): US$26.25M, Per share: £0.021/share (2.1 pence) 23%.

Just goes to show how undervalued ALL currently is, BUT I would guess that we will get more dilution than just long state, we will have royalty deals lowering our total ownership of output in exchange for cash to build the mine. So this estimate is fairly aspirational. I think they will focus on debt reduction and will start to seriously fund their Ivory Coast exploration licenses at Rubino and Agboville which both have a lot of potential (771 km² of mineral rich land).

With Lithium Royalty Corp paying A$40M for a 1.5% royalty on Goulamina, and Ganfeng acquiring Leo Lithium's 40% stake for $342.7M USD in May 2024, we can establish a baseline valuation for comparison to Atlantic Lithium's Ewoyaa project.

Goulamina (Mali) - The Benchmark:

100% implied value: ~$857M USD (from Leo's 40% sale)

Resource: 108 Mt @ 1.44% Li₂O

Mine life: 23 years

Production: 506,000 tpa (Phase 1), expanding to 1M+ tpa

Operator: Ganfeng (65%), Mali Gov (35%)

Ewoyaa (Ghana) - The Comparison:

Resource: 36.8 Mt @ 1.24% Li₂O (34% of Goulamina's size)

Mine life: 12 years (52% of Goulamina's)

Production: 365,000 tpa (72% of Goulamina Phase 1)

Post-tax NPV8: $1.3B, IRR: 94% (per updated DFS)

Ownership structure assuming Elevra take the extra stake in Ewoyaa: ALL 40.5%, Piedmont 40.5%, MIIF 6%, Ghana Gov 13%

If Ewoyaa gets similar royalty deals to Goulamina (1.5% for $40M AUD on a $857M asset = 4.7% of asset value), a proportional royalty on Ewoyaa might fetch $250M × 4.7% × (1.5% royalty) = ~$18M USD for a 1.5% royalty

Simple resource-based calculation:

Goulamina Phase 1: $857M ÷ 506,000 tpa = $1,693/tpa

Ewoyaa: 365,000 tpa × $1,693 = $618M

Ghana premium (+15%): $710M

ALL owning 40% of Ewoyaa we can assume their total value is $287.55 million as a base case. Leo sold their Goulamina mine at the Lithium lows last year so really this is a very conservative estimate. £213.9 million GBP is the base case for ALL's worth, really upon ratification the shares should trade at 30p taking this into account.

Good RNS. TIG is cheap here

Its highly likely they've been selling off but no official confirmation until 27 February. They've sold off every year since IPO when they owned 8% of total shares, now sitting at 1.14%, was previously 1.5%. They are looking to totally offload a large number of UK small-mid caps, not just reduce and since THG has been in reduce since IPO, it makes sense they are selling.

Https://news.sky.com/story/norwegian-sovereign-fund-in-selloff-of-london-listed-stocks-13496215

Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund has announced it has been selling off its UK mid-small cap holdings in the last few weeks and will continue to do so.

Wealth fund total holdings is 2 Trillion dollars and they held 1.5% of total THG shares, now it looks closer to 1%, still a fair amount to go.

1998 is the last time the UK had independent nuclear capabilities

The UK does not have an independent nuclear capabilities without US support. Trident missiles are leased from the US, and the submarines have to return regularly to the US base in King’s Bay, Georgia, for the maintenance and replacement of the missiles. Vanguard-class submarines are made in the UK but most of the system’s components are bought from the US. The body shell, which contains the warhead, is purchased from the US; and the guidance system used by the Trident system is designed and made by Charles Stark Draper Laboratories, also in the US.

The site at which the UK’s nuclear warheads are made, the Atomic Weapons Establishment at Aldermaston, is part-managed by Lockheed Martin, a US corporation. The missiles were tested under US supervision at Cape Canaveral, off the coast of Florida.

Only France has independent Nuclear capabilities within the EU and NATO.

This is something law firms usually go after not a direct complaint to FCA. This is common in the US but a lot less common in the UK. If THG was a US listed company there would have been 100 ambulance chasing lawfirms filing class action lawsuits on MM and THG in the past year.

The sell volume is insane. Something must have spooked investors in the call, unless shorts are piling on

MM on Ingenuity inflecting on profitability: "We put the business through some chunky changes in 2025. A lot of the decisions were difficult, uncomfortable, and not always obvious at the time – but they were possible because we could step away from the glare of the London Stock Exchange."

He seems to suggest that Ingenuity is doing well due to delisting

Jefferies raises THG price target to 60 (55) pence - 'buy'. They like the results and see a path to profitability

Group H2 revenue increased +6.7% YoY. This is well above the 3.9% to +5.9% guidance range.

THG Beauty delivered +5.5% H2 revenue growth, well ahead of +1.0% to +3.0% guidance.

THG Nutrition delivered +9.2% H2 revenue growth (+12.7% excluding Asia), broadly in-line with the +10.0% to +12.0% guidance.

FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA expectations remain unchanged and in line with the company consensus range

Shame to see that adjusted EBITDA is not ahead of expectations with these big revenue beats but there is revenue momentum here, first time since 2021 we are seeing this type of growth. The combined impact of disposals and discontinued activities reduced Group full year and Q4 2025 revenue growth by 330bps and 290bps respectively. So this revenue growth is even after disposals, edging closer to constant profitability.

Price to Sales still at 0.41 when most beauty/nutrition companies will be 0.8x-1.2x, now with revenue growth increasing again, we can see a rerate from 0.41 p/s to 0.6-0.8 p/s.

This is a long term rebound but remember we are up 120% since June and usually results take some time to digest. Much more positive from THG this time around. Remember, Warpaint is struggling bad, looks like THG Beauty is eating Warpaints lunch from this revenue growth figures.

GLA

Imagine shorting THG and longing DEBS. Hahahahahah

Great results. Market will react positively