Member Info for ThetaDecay

1.5% dilution today, management rewarding themselves on easy targets meanwhile the share price is languishing

I didn't hear any specific price or any specific bidder, only that there is a lot of interest at a decent premium to current SP. Could be made up.

I agree, If its true its an opportunistic bid but its still around a 50% premium to current SP. I heard it in a pub in the city, i'm not giving away any sources, rumours swirl all the time but this one I think adds up. Either way, yougov is very cheap at this price and I would not be surprised to see private equity circling like vultures, it would be an easy ROI for them at any price under 500p in my opinion.

Yougov expect FY26 adjusted operating profit to be £52m-56m, meaning a buyout at 300p+ would only take 6 years for a private equity firm to earn their money back from the purchase assuming profits are stagnant.

Just rumours I've heard, 320p is a guess on my end since I've heard its a decent premium to current price. Yougov currently trades on an EV/EBITDA of 4.5x, PE firms typically use that figure for takeovers and usually around 8-9 EV/EBITDA is standard so them bidding at a price of 7x is not unreasonable at all. Yougov is currently trading at an FCFe yield of 10.9%, meaning its a decent return on investment for private equity under 400p.

Rumours of 320p bid? hmmm. City is chattering

But general interest and investment in the infectious disease/vaccine sector will help push HVIVO share price upwards I think which is a positive.

Ebola and Hantavirus have way too high mortality rates to do an HCT trial for. I don't know why people keep bringing this up, comparing it to covid is insane.

You're right, it was AI hallucinating, seems that Huayou Cobalt will be paying the fee. So its just FX that might effect 18.8p final price. Either way, Its not nailed on.

If anyone can refute that previous comment, it would be good but AI seems dead set on saying 18.8p is not happening at the current offer.

Here's a longer version you can post:

The 18.8p figure everyone's quoting is the gross offer, it's not what hits your account. Read the announcement carefully: "$210m excluding capital gains tax, with the final consideration to be determined based on filings with the Ghana Revenue Authority." That wording matters. If Huayou were paying the tax on top, the per-share price would be a fixed number, not something to be "determined" later.

What's happening: Ewoyaa is a Ghana-situate asset. When Atlantic Lithium gets acquired, Ghana treats it as an indirect transfer of that asset and levies CGT on the gain at 25% (the corporate rate). The seller is the legal taxpayer, and shareholders get what's left after the GRA takes its cut. That's why the lawyers built a price-adjustment mechanism into the Elevra side-deal. They're explicitly expecting the scheme consideration to move once the GRA filing lands.

Its not nailed on though is it.

Firstly, 18.8p is the gross headline. Ghana CGT comes off it before shareholders get paid, which is exactly what "final consideration to be determined based on GRA filing" means in the deed. Pre-production cost base softens it but doesn't zero it; realistic net is probably 16–17p once Ghana takes its slice.

Secondly, the offer was paid in Australian dollars, the 18.8p is a conversion to the AUD price, if Sterling appreciates then you get less pence for each share converted.

LYT-100 won't get a PRV, near impossible, doesn't fit the criteria. They are for new drug formulas that would have a transformational effect on patients or transformational drugs targeting pediatric diseases. PRV's have been available for a long time, a lot longer than last year, companies can sell them for $150-200 million so that would be added to the market cap if it happened but it won't.

Anyone in Omnicom Group? Seems their AI acquisitions are going well and pay a 4% dividend. Direct competitor to S4. I own both

@Lesley50 The reason the US shares were avoided is because it wasn't a primary listing and had no liqudity, broker coverage and weren't enough shares for institutions to even think about involving. US listing had hardly any holders, not a problem. Would have preferred to ditch the London listing and make Nasdaq listing primary with US broker coverage and proper liquidity but oh well, it won't be missed in its current form

Isn't Hantavirus a bit too deadly to conduct an HCT trial for? Its got like a 40-60% mortality rate, seems unlikely they would purposefully innoculate humans with that but who knows

They are being innoculated with Whooping Cough, it would be a danger to the public and viable to spread if you give patients Bordetella pertussis and hope the BPZE1 vaccine actually works, which isn't confirmed yet hence the trials. I've looked online and can find no information that they will be allowed to go home and potentially spread the whooping cough virus.

The Phase 2b CHAMPION-1 trial required participants to remain in the challenge unit for 17 days and 16 nights and earlier Bordetella Pertussis Colonisation Challenge Study also required 17-day inpatient admission, which is partially required by law for HCT trials. Even if what you are saying is somehow true, Mo has confirmed its the largest VALUE HCT contract to date, which means they are paying Hvivo a large contract without even using up bed space, which is a positive as it allows additional trial capacity during this period since bed space was a hard limit on HCT revenue generation, so its not a negative in which you are describing, its not true anyway so I wont go further into this point.

In terms of competition, yes there are competitors both in Europe and the US, the US have specialised hospitals and medical centres that can carry out HCT trials, in Europe you have CHDR Leiden with 54 beds and the co-run SGS/Vaccinopolis by the University of Antwerp, a facility that only has 30 beds. Hvivo has always had competition, many universities in the UK have facilities that allow HCT trials just like the UoA facility in Antwerp, this isn't new. Imperial College London has been running for HCT trials for a long time, University of Southampton and and Oxford also have facilities that have been open for over 30 years+. Unlike those European CHIM facilities that you mentioned Hvivo also has Bacterial lab capability, FluCamp recruitment and In-house GMP virus manufacturing meaning they can sign larger deals for Phase III contracts that can bundle in multiple services reducing costs for the company running the trials, those European and UK rival facilities do not have this capability.

Nice try SloMo, we've already debunked your "day trial" fud. ITS ILLEGAL to send people home on an HCT trial, they would be liable to spread whooping cough to the public. Grow up

"forming any debate is lost seemingly". What do you think I'm doing? I'm addressing your posts and telling you how absurd it is, if thats not debating you then what is? I don't want to block you like others but you aren't countering my points at all, just moaning and ignoring them, so please if you want to debate about this then lets do it otherwise I will join the others.

Hvivo confirmed its the largest trial in terms of value, meaning revenue generation. Like I said before even if what you are saying is true then its not a negative, Hvivo would be paid without bed usage and so they will have bed availability to conduct more trials this year and next year. If they werent staying overnight then there is no reason this trial would continue into 2028, thats not mention it would be against the law for HCT trials and it would allow Whooping cough infection to spread among the public. In terms of competition, this has always existed and yes more facilities in Europe are being opened with Universities to conduct HCT trials but many UK universities already had this ability and Hvivo have other capabilities that the competition does not.

No one has a definitive idea why the share price is languishing, its a mixture of fund outflows causing forced sellers of their worst performing shares, the lumpy nature of HCT contracts and the fact that infectious disease sector space in biotech is now underfunded and going through a bad patch due to US policy of the current administration. Just making up that they are not using beds in this trial and are allowed to go home to spread whooping cough is low effort and has no merit.