Member Info for ThePurleyKing

After reading the RNS yesterday morning I was expecting a bump to 11-12p and am very surprised this wasn't the case. Perhaps I'm missing something but I think this whole deal is now massively de-risked. Eventual timeline is still unclear, but seems extremely likely it will happen, even more so than it was previously.
What is the market scared of? What might come along that could scupper things? Surely just can't be "WSG never deliver and we don't think they will this time either" given all the evidence to the contrary?

1) How long will we have to wait for "certain financial arrangements between MPS and the port authorities" to be put in place, so we can get our contract signed?
2) How long is the contract for and how much will we be paid per TEU?

1) How long is a piece of string? could be a couple of weeks, could drag on until Christmas or beyond. Obviously am hoping for the former but realistically nobody can back up any opinion on this with any facts.
2) If I remember correctly from the AGM discussion we had on here, PF said it was one of 5, 10 or 15 years and the "Lion's share" of the costs would be given to WSG. I think MikeGP's numbers earlier on today look sensible. I think most are expecting 10 years or more, 5 seems way too short.

I have dodged a pretty big bullet as was planning to sell 50% here on Ghana news and move it to SXX. For once WSG being late with absolutely everything will have helped. As long as we do eventually get there of course :)

Hi Dodger,
I think Ghana looks different from the others. Its clear we are way further down the line in terms of commitment than we have been with other projects.
This is either a sign that there shouldn't be anything too much to worry about, or it could be that PF has naused it up spectacularly and way over committed to something that still had a significant chance of not completing.
We will find out which it is in the next 6 weeks. Personally I think there is a far higher chance its the former and it gets signed, but basing that off not much else other than how could we even think about making these announcements, committing so much resource/investment if we weren't completely certain we were on to a winner.

Seems that I might get to sell 30% of my WSG holding at a substantial profit to get into SXX at 8-9p after all.........
Please WSG, don't let things drag on into October.

Stupid question - but what time tomorrow will the interims be published?

Get TEMA over the line and then all the other work streams we have suddenly get a far higher level of perceived probability of coming to fruition.
At the moment that probability as viewed by the market is close to 0.

Qualia, we may hear some tidbits from the Saudi venture and a couple of other things that will get people all excited.
I don't think that it will materially affect anything, as we've just had another lesson in how WSG (for reasons within their control or not) do not manage to get things over the line.
I expect that will change with TEMA, but as it stands any planned new work is not going to be given much credence in terms of the SP.
Decent financials for H1 will be something that will give us a boost though and they should be pretty good imo.

Hi Mike,
It seems probable to me that the MPS dispute with the Port Authority is the reason for the hold up. Understandable that nobody wants to commit to what WSG will be paid if its not clear what the customer will be charged.
Its not something that can continue in limbo without an end date though for us, even if the wider discussion takes a long time to resolve. Hopefully we are pushing this issue as hard as we can.

Very true AIM!
Still might be time if we get some material news on Thursday. Given that the initial announcement was on AGM day, perhaps PF is just waiting for the interims to announce the contract?
I know he should be announcing whenever it comes in, but I've got a small hope that we get the big news on Thursday.

Annoying that SXX have bounced today!
Not quick enough WSG, not quick enough.........

Something has to give one way or another in the next couple of weeks. We can't have staff working on the ground forever and the usual PF ostrich technique of just not speaking about a project for a few months and hoping everyone forgets about it is not going to wash this time around.
My idea scenario is a positive TEMA announcement here and can then sell a few at a decent profit and get into SXX before they get their financing agreed (yes I really am that much of a masochist).

By the end of August, if no Ghana contract has been delivered, an RNS will have to come to let everyone know (as much info as they can give) about the delay, what the reasons are etc.
I refuse to believe this will drop into the bulging WSG bottom drawer, where projects go into the deep freeze and nothing ever truly dies. There is too much riding on it for that to happen.

Hi Mozax - interested to hear why you think it'll get going this afternoon? FOMO?

Hi Tosh - I'm in for £20, just doing my team now.
Picking a decent midfield is harder than picking a decent share :)
How do I join and get the money to you?

Hi Mozax,
I think due to the 10m warrants at 12.5p not existing any more, whoever was due to get them no longer has that option, so is now building their position.
Just shows how quickly this can move, once we do get confirmation in Ghana will be very interesting to see where we end up that day. Is going to be wild.......

Don't think this is rise is a precursor to anything happening today necessarily. As far as I can see WSG are completely watertight and we don't see suspicious rises before an RNS.
Would be extremely happy to be proved wrong though. We are still way off a fair value here imo, so a 0.6p rise is really neither here nor there.

Hi AIM,
"If we are awaiting finalisation of the new tariffs, surely WSG and MPS could come to an arrangement were we get paid x under the current tariffs and y if they change? "
Agree with that 100%. That is the obvious solution to the current problem. Maybe that is what we are pushing for and would be completely reasonable for us to do this.

A massive kick in the wotsits this morning.
Demonstrates a concerning lack of any real financial planning. Contracts can be delayed for any number of unexpected reasons, PF should know this fact more than most. Cutting it so fine as to 100% need TEMA signed on time in order to avoid a damaging dilution on poor terms and yet more pain for LTHs could be best described as adventurous, worst described as completely reckless.
It does look like TEMA will now be some time away now, meaning a further spell in the doldrums for the SP. Knowing how things usually work out for PF though it'll probably be tomorrow and he won't have needed to raise these funds.
I'll still hold for TEMA and beyond, but fml this is some annoying news.

Thanks for the info Jimzi, very interesting. I'll see what else I can find, but what you've written below makes a lot of sense.