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Peter would you like to share your valuation?

I'm interested to hear the breakdown of it 😉

Hoc doesn't seem to be on the radar for many. When the 20 year inmaculada permit was approved it took many weeks for it to be reflected in the price.

As far as I can tell there just isnt much money looking at Hoc. Even at a very conservative valuation its worth £1.5b and it is being traded 30% below that.

Ftse 100 has a Shiller/cape ratio of around 18; the ftse 250 at around 17; the Russell 2000 at around 60; the s&p 500 at 37. Hoc has significant growth ahead of it, and the above ratio suggest there is plenty of money around even at today's modestly higher rates.

I'm very glad Eduardo H holds such a large position I dont want to be brought out at 50c on the dollar.

With gold and silver at these levels for 2025 I have $350m pre tax. So glad to see we have similar figures. I still think my cost estimates are too conservative. So in all honesty id expect the actual pre tax profits to be closer to $400m if today's pm prices were 2025 average realised prices. (I'm hoping 2025 pms will average slightly higher than current prices)

Gold priced as it is, volcan being sold this year wouldn't be the worse thing.

E Hochschild will never let hoc get brought out anywhere near curent valuation.

Https://youtu.be/Z79MDYvUB34

Only just found the presentation for retail investors. I don't believe its listed anywhere on HOC's website.

As a former tesla sh back in the day, i have to say its the retail investors questions that result in the more insightful answer im looking for. De monte could start construction as early as q4 2025

And how is this for an ending message from Mr Landin "We have a growth story in place that could mean a 60% growth [production] in the next 3, 4 years"

"To have our share is a very good bet for the future if you want to be in the gold and silver industry"

At today's costs, today's production and today's pm prices I think we're cheap.

But with costs coming down a fair bit (25% down on aisc) (24f vrs 26f --> 1-[1150/1530]=24.8%). Along with production up potentially 60% in 4years. And lastly gold and silver prices reaching annual average IMO $2800 and $37 in 2025.

So to conclude, even if all estimates end up being too optimistic we should still end up with substantial returns having invested at below the £1b mark.

The silvercrest deal looks (on the slightly higher side of) reasonable imo, given their strong balance sheet.

Unless Coeur's believe the mine's production will increase significantly (as far as i can see there arent any production forecasts past 2024. Also 2024 prod is expected to be inline with 2023). Then apart from the perceived geography risk, I would think HOC would be in the equivalent region of $2.3-2.5b.

HOCs size, geography and balance sheet along with E Hochschild holding 38% of the company, makes any takeover bid very unlikely imo.

I'm not too worried, Mr Hochschild owns a little over a third.

The probability we get brought out on the cheap in the near future is slim, that said the volcan project could well be sold off soon.

The expected 2025 pe figure has changed within the 3weeks between the interim results webcast (6.9x implying a 2025 after tax earning of £132m/$176m) and the Denver gold forum presentation (5.3x implying a 2025 after tax earning of £181m/$241m)

This is based on the assumption they have taken the market price on the day they are presented (likely not the case). If you play around with dates you get an insight to their forecast given pm price movements during recent weeks.

Anyway, my back of the envelope model (after taking into account hedges in 2025) is just shy of their 6.9 expected pe for 2025 and substantially below their 5.3e'25 pe.

Given that I have a higher expected Pms prices and im assuming their forecast at most 2025 future prices. I must have the costs a fair bit too high. Yippy.

Ultimately, if at a value of around £950m ($1.26b) we end up achieving a 2025 profit of around £181m with significant increase in production coming in 2027/28 along with the vocan project sitting on our bs, then we should all end up doing pretty well.

Wouldn't be to concerneced with new gold hedges now given current futures.

Also I can't imagine them hedging silver with pallacanta so far away.

Would love to hear your valuations, workings and assumptions.

I personally have hoc at a valuation £1.6b and a more conservative valuation of £1.2b. This is in part based on my belief gold will average around $2800 in 2025 and for the next couple of years, along with a belief silver will have an average annual price of over $35 in 2025.

I'm also assuming Pallancata will start commercial production in 2027 (pherhaps too optimistic)

Not investment advice 🤣 and could well be far off, interested to hear your valuations.

Haven't had chance to watch the call they just had yet, hoping I'll be able to watch later, but excited to see the below posted on the other message board.

"If the option is taken up, construction could possibly begin end of next year or early 2026. CEO says the wet season there is January, February, March so best avoided if possible. He sees construction beginning either Oct, Nov, Dec next year or else April onwards in 2026."

At this rate by 2027 we could be well over 500k equivalent onces at a significantly lower aisc. At this point in the long term debt cycle cant see pm's be significantly lower in 2027 either.

This is valued as if pallacanta permit will never come along or any other developments like monte.

I for one have pallacanta permit as a when not if. Without it production should increase modestly, with it production should increase significantly. Without any increase in production and even with a slight decrease in pm prices the business seems reasonably priced.

Im gutted im unable to increase my holdings atm

Results were really good, looking forward to presentation.

Profitable with mara rosa only reaching commercial production in May.

PMs still expected to rise slightly over next 18months.

Volume of hedges at lower prices to decrease.

Costs at inmaculada forecasted to decrease.

And looks like some even beter drilling grades at mara rosa.

Any news out on aclara today?

Potentially a special divi for volcan or maybe they just try and raise capital and keep a sizable stake. Would prefer the latter but not for another 6months atleast.

Houston we have lift off

Sotolo, i have it as just under two thirds gold at todays price, altho with new Pallancata mine expected in 2027 and a silver price spike it could be a lot closer between the two in the future

I think historical it was, but as of auag prices today we are mainly a gold miner.

Inmaculada (main mine) is currently around 70% gold.

Pallacanta - in care and maintenance till new permit in 3yrs at current prices about 70%silver

Mara Rosa - is all gold (about half the production of Inmaculada, i think, but at lower cost)

San Jose - is small and i think its around 50/50

The recent Monte Do Carmo project is all gold.

Then there a couple retired mines that are not economical to mine at the moment that are mainly silver.

please correct me if im wrong ;)

Folks, I'm a bit of noob when it comes to PM mining, can you help me?

What production numbers should we be expecting in 2024? I should imagine many factors go into production rates, the below are based on current year production extrapolated for full year. Do they seem reasonable numbers?

Inmaculada, Gold: 124k oz Silver: 5,146k oz

San Jose, (51% so taken half of production) Gold: 35k oz Silver: 1,941k oz

Mara Rosa, Gold 80k oz

I also believe CPM group have 2024 forecasts of around $2300 oz for gold and $35 oz for silver. They have a fairly decent long term record in forecasting PM prices. Thoughts on the likelihood of these prices or alternative price predictions for 2024 would be appreciated.

On the above sets of assumptions along with only modest cost increases (again thoughts on this appreciated) I'm estimating pre tax profits of $240m.

Last couple of questions, if were to see substantial prices rises in silver would the veins of 22-23 in Pallancata be reopened? im aware of the newer veins at the site they are hoping to mine in the coming years.

How much weight can we put behind the Volcan Gold report? I had a quick glance and the numbers look great I understand its size its a stretch for hoch, but if their numbers are to be believed its surely worth a fair amount even if hoch was to sell a majority stake in it. HOC seemed to only be traded down on the news which I can't make sense of.

I am I right in thinking the effective tax rate in Peru is like 45% for miners?

Any feedback appreciated, thanks.

Does it always mean something? Stock valuation fluctuations often seem to mean relatively little to me. If there was insider news out but not reaching us would the volume trade not be higher?