Member Info for TheMadStork

PEL at this price represents an amazing opportunity. The company is in the strongest position it has ever been in terms of the order book, workforce and demand for its services, yet the market cap is near historic lows. This is exactly the time to be buying before the inevitable correction occurs. 1) Margins, profits and mcap. Gross margins are roughly 25% up to £14m revenue; this is incredibly good for the sector. It means means that every £1m over £8.3m revenue (this covers admin costs) brings £250k profit to the bottom line, or £2.5m on the map at a conservative 10x multiple. There was £15m confirmed order book through 2016 as of July, and this is bound to have increased since then, given the recent contract wins. I personally expect 2016 revenue to be at least £12m. This would mean approx £1m net income. On a very conservative 10x multiple that is £10m mcap / 5.3p or £15m / 8p on a perfectly plausible 15x. These figures are very conservative based solely on what has been already been announced. Clearly further large wins could alter the sums significantly. 2)Director confidence. PEL had a historical deferred tax liability from the acquisition of Paragon Creative in 2011. In July of this year, instead of letting the full sum fall on the company, which they would have been within their rights to do, the directors paid the lions share of the tax bill out of their own personal resources. That screams confidence. Also, the CEO, Mark Pryah, owns 11% of the company, and in total the directors own 20% of the shares. They definitely have skin in the game.

Er should be "are *now* taking steps..."

Indeed. They have been very slow to realise this, but are not taking concrete steps to correct the situation. I'm very very pleased.

Yes, Sharepickers with Justin. He eventually caved to my badgering! I'm also going on the podcast next week and will be mentioning PEL.

I don't; was just correcting Ian's post based on what I believe to be the case.

Remember that anything over £14m they have to sub out so margins drop to 10%. So hypothetical £22m revenue would be, in EBITDA terms 9m: 0 (covers fixed admin costs) + 10 - 14m: 5m x 0.25 = 1.25m + 15 - 22m: 8m x 0.1 = 0.8m =£2.3m income on £22m revenue. Assume a (very conservative) multiple of 10 gives us an mcap of £23m or 12.3p

http://www.paragon-creative.co.uk/news/paragon-signs-contract-with-dubai-parks-and-resorts If that had been yesterday's RNS in full, we'd be at 4p now.

No, but the ones who claim to be profitable with loads of cash in the bank and then proceed do a placing at a 70%(!) discount most certainly are.

I also note that smallcapnetwork have a history of posting blatantly false rumours. Anyone buying off the back of one of their posts is certifiably bonkers.

They did a placing at a *colossal* discount to raise £1.7m, despite supposedly having £4m in the bank at the time. That is really all the research one needs to do. This is a China fraud, plain and simple.

Yep, that will be one of the ex Pan Mahgreb holders leaving. I am 95% sure that was the last of them; the SP should now be free to move. And given the strength it exhibited while they were selling, I'm excited to see what may happen now that pressure is removed.

Good post. I wouldn't necessarily say, though, that we have *no* idea what the new business might be: http://www.raglancapital.ie/images/Raglan_Med_Tech_pre-IPO_opportunity.pdf

Yes, absolutely agreed. Voting crucial.

I'm not personally attributing any value at all to the O&G assets and I still have a target of 4p+ post EGM

I think the sellers are pretty much done (touch wood). Real spread is 2.71/2.79. MMs playing silly buggers with published bid.

Courtesy of sea7 on ADVFN: Horizon Medical Technologies Designated Activity Company was set up on Fri the 7th of Aug 2015 in Dublin 4. Their current status is Normal. The company's current directors Enda Gavin and Cathal Friel have been the director of 14 other Irish companies between them; 3 of which are now closed. http://www.businessbarometer.ie/Risk-Management/Horizon-Medical-Technologies-Designated-Activity-Company-566153

The 28th. Tube strike but I shall be attending anyway.

Fantastic buying volume here. The only reason it hasn't broken out is the legacy Pan Magreb holders dumping. By my calcs they should be very very nearly done. Would expect to see some big delayed sells come through then 3p beckons IMO.

It absolutely will be passed. Like I said, CF is the only person with a holding above 3%, and he will obviously be there and voting in favour. In order for it to be blocked, PIs holding more than 12% of the shares swould have to all turn up and vote. Not going to happen. In the very unlikely case it doesn't get passed, I would assume the co will eventually be wound up and cash returned to shareholders. Worst case 20% profit from here IMO.

Agreed; there is no value in the Irish assets. The RNS basically says as much. The value now is the cash balance (2.8p) plus premium for a biopharma RTO. Cannot understand why one would sell below cash value, but I suspect those are are will be kicking themselves in a couple of weeks.