PEL Investment Case4 Dec 2015 10:17
PEL at this price represents an amazing opportunity. The company is in the strongest position it has ever been in terms of the order book, workforce and demand for its services, yet the market cap is near historic lows. This is exactly the time to be buying before the inevitable correction occurs.
1) Margins, profits and mcap.
Gross margins are roughly 25%; this is incredibly good for the sector. It means that every £1m over £8.3m revenue (this covers admin costs) brings £250k profit to the bottom line, or £2.5m on the mcap at a conservative 10x multiple. There was £15m confirmed order book through to end 2016 as of July this year, and this is bound to have increased since then, given the recent contract wins. I would personally expect 2016 revenue to be in the region of £12m This is based on the board's stated goal of 20% growth/year, with the target for 2015 having been £10m. Such a result would mean approx £1m net income. On a very conservative 10x multiple that is £10m mcap / 5.3p or £15m / 8p on a perfectly plausible 15x.
These figures are very conservative based solely on what has been already been announced. Clearly further large wins could alter the sums significantly.
2)Director confidence.
PEL had a historical deferred tax liablity from the acquisition of Paragon Creative in 2011. In July of this year, instead of letting the full sum fall on the company, which they would have been within their rights to do, the directors paid the lions share of the tax bill out of their own personal resources. That screams confidence. Also, the CEO, Mark Pryah, owns 11% of the company, and in total the directors own 20% of the shares. They definitely have skin in the game.