Member Info for TheMadStork

WK has tiny platinum-dominant reserves spread over an enormous volume of gravel. I question whether or not it's even *possible* for it to make a profit -especially given recovery rates from raw PGMs, EUA's 68% ownership and smelter fees- let alone be worth anything material to the current mcap. Personally I'd value it at no more than the value of plant + equipment or around £5m per the 2019 audited balance sheet. Will be interested to see what the 2020 audited balance sheet values it at.

Who exactly do you think has been shorting? All shorts above 0.5% have to be declared and you can see for yourself here www.shorttracker.co.uk that there are no shorts above 0.5% in EUA.

The vast majority of outstanding shorts will be legacy retail spreadbets like mine and it is no longer possible to open new shorts via this method. If I had to guess I'd say the total outstanding short position is less than 2%.

The explanation for the drop is, as always, perfectly simple: There are more shares for sale than there are buyers.

^set *in*

Yes I am short. Not a large position but only because I can't get more. It is, in my view, the most obvious med/long term short on the market. Short term? Who knows what might happen, but *eventually* the realisation that a mega payout is never going to happen will set it.

Folio: I realise it is pointless asking you this, but who exactly do you think paid for the Edison Report, which attempts to give an objective valuation using actual sales data for undeveloped assets across a wide range of commodities?

...guess who *is* paid to ramp stocks with adverts though? That's right! Our old friends the ad men at ACF. From their disclaimer:

"A marketing
communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements
designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of
the dissemination of the investment research. ACF Equity Research Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial
Conduct Authority. However the contents of this research report are produced as if ACF Equity Research Limited is
unregulated and consequently this report does not contain investment recommendations or ratings."

Oh and I also note that there is no sign of Veles Captial on said lists, i.e. the "institution" that we are told boughtthe shares dumped by the former(?) strategic advisor to the board. Funny, that.

^fail *to*

An unnamed II who I suspect will conveniently fail you show up on Bloomberg/Morningstar/MSN lists of institutional holders.

GH:

And yet that presentation can only say that they've got 1.9moz proved up. All the other 15moz is simply speculative P2 reserves which do not even count as Inferred under JORC and are therefore functionally worthless in the ground. Hell, even proved up measured/indicated PGMs are only worth around 0.35% of the spot price when the project is undeveloped.

https://www.edisongroup.com/sector-report/gold-stars-and-black-holes/23211/ see pages 33-35 of this report.

You might say that's historic data from a PGM bear market, and that would be fair enough except:

a)Do we really think that undeveloped PGM resources are suddenly worth 100+ times what they were in 2017-19?
b) MT has no DFS, meaning a mine cannot be built until more work is carried out, it is in a hostile juristidiction with little infrastructure and its grades are relatively low. I'd say it should command a price well *below* average.

Even taking the absolute balls-out best case, I do not see how EUA's assets are worth anything close to the current mcap, hence which there have been zero bids in the 20 months it has been on sale.

There's been loads of info except any actual information about any supposed bidder after 20 months of being on sale.

1)Who is buying?
2)What are they buying?
3)How much are they paying?

I have a feeling the faithful here are going to be waiting a long time for answers to these fundamental questions.

"We have discussed and we don’t know the answer other than shorting or black rock, "

Except that a) there are no short positions above 0.5%, as you can see on shorttracker.co.uk and b) Blackrock's position is entirely composed of automated index trackers; they have zero view or interest in the EUA share price.

The price is dropping because there are currently more sellers than buyers, that's it. The conspiratorial thinking from the devotees here is understandable -people often need a nice neat explanation for things that appear to contradict deeply-held beliefs- but it is entirely incorrect.

I was strongly considering closing it, but after thinking about what may have actually happened with the placing (which I won't post as it is speculation I have no proof for) I decided to keep it open.

Still pretty sure there won't be a crash any time soon, but I will definitely predict that the AGM will not provide any answers to the following questions:

1)Who is buying?
2)What are they buying?
3)How much are they paying?

Whether or not the lack of answers will cause an exodus of believers we shall have to see. Personally I doubt it; if one has stuck it out for 20 months, then I don't see whatever can-kicking is produced being an issue for continued belief.

As I've said four or five times before, I am simply fascinated by the EUA story. How has it achieved and maintained what is, to my eyes, an *insane* valuation for so long? Why are there so many believers in what is -in my view- an extremely obvious disaster waiting to happen? It's just incredibly interesting to me. I do also have a position, relatively tiny though it might be. That's clearly not the main motivation, though.

And GLG is of course absolutely right.

I'm quite sure nobody wants me to talk about other shares here (or about EUA, obviously, but I'm afraid you're stuck with me there). If you really want to know what I'm invested in then feel free to check my Twitter for a few of the bigger holdings.

Looks like somebody has finally stepped in to take shares here. There's 100k shares on the bid and on the ask. If I were the buyer I'd probably try to arrange an off-market transfer, but regardless it is good to see a bid to counteract the large seller.

If and when the bulls are proved wrong here, I wonder if any will think back to posts like Spotify's numerous abusive rants and reconsider exactly who they believe to be credible.

Also, TW himself is not short and did not write the SP article about Queeld. That would be Lucian Miers, a generally bearish investor who often takes short positions. I'm quite sure that nobody here cares about that, but it does show that nobody actually bothered to even glance at the article in question.

RMR: ACF reports are issuer-pays, as it says in their disclaimer.

So yes, in effect EUA *did* pay for the SimplyWallSt valuation!

You really could not make this up.

SimplyWallSt is an automated service that uses 3rd party analyst estimates to generate its valuations. Guess whose bonkers cashflow estimates it is using? That's right: ACF! (And they really are *completely* insane estimates, as you can tell by the automated massive valuation the SimplyWallSt algo assigns)

I'm interested in what exactly constitutes my 'web of lies' this time. Please be specific.