Member Info for TheMadStork

I think the BoD have played an absolute blinder. They have parlayed some sub-par assets and a bit of hot air into a £750m mcap, raised £10m with more to come and have successfully dangled the prospect of a mega payout in front of retail punters for 18 months now, and are *still* successfully doing so, despite the failure of the FSP. Only now, they can raise cash and are free of FSP restrictions. It's absolute genius and I take my hat off to them.

The fact remains, however, that there are no bids for the company as these would have to be disclosed now. There is a 'credible proposal' (not not a formal offer as that would have to be disclosed) from an unnamed party for unspecified assets at an undisclosed price. No timeline and no guarantees. The company is in the same position as when it first went up for sale 18, no... 20 months ago, except the mcap has ballooned hugely. Again, the board have played a blinder.

The terms of the transaction (if it exists) will never be disclosed as that would give the lie to the dream that there is still a mega payout coming despite the lack of bids for the company. I bet you that in 2 months time we will still be none the wiser, and you can quote me on that.

That was the whole point of the RNS. To keep dangling the prospect of a mega payout despite the failure of the FSP. I have a feeling you may be waiting a long, long time.

EUA do not own the '104moz'. They own an option to do a JV to develop it, which they paid $0.5m for 2 months ago. It is worth $0.5m.

Spot on, Dean. This is another attempt at ramping before a raise, in my view. Extremely successful, mind, and absolutely in the best interests of the business, but somehow I suspect those still dreaming of a mega payout are going to be disappointed.

To clarify, it will never, ever trade there, but that's my estimate for the actual worth of the assets EUA currently have. Bit irrevelant though as like I said, punters still believe there's a mega payout coming and that will keep the market cap/share price inflated and allow them to raise tons of cash. Again, I sincerely respect what the board have done here. Very, very clever.

Nope. Still open. I have to admit, though, that the BoD have played a blinder. I am still of the opinion that EUA's assets are worth no more than 2p/share, but the board have managed to keep punters on board with the carrot of a possible mega payout even after the failure of the FSP.

I suspect you're going to be waiting a long time for this dividend and it may be substantially less than most here think if it does arrive. However, the mcap will remain vastly, vastly inflated which is great news for the company going forward. Well done BoD. I take my hat off to them.

1) Who is buying?
2) What are they buying?
3) How much are they prepared to pay?

Can't believe this has been allowed to trade with these fundamental questions unanswered.

Yeah I cannot believe this has been allowed tbh. Massive lack of clarity in the RNS.

MJS94: We don't actually know the details of the transaction yet, for some reason. Until we do, I am witholding judgement.

However, if it turns out to represent real value for EUA's shareholders at anything close to the current mcap then I shall unreservedly apologise for not believing.

Very good question. I'd be surprised (though not shocked - this is AIM after all) if it weren't suspended pending clarification of the details of the transaction.

Posting this in a new thread as I'm interested in responses:

If, for example it is MT sold and dividend paid, how much would be acceptable to holders here? "Significant" is rather vague, and with MT gone that's pretty much all the value as WK is tiny and the Rosgeo option has to be actually exercised and paid for before it is worth anything.

Question: If, for example it is MT sold and dividend paid, how much would be acceptable to holders here? "Significant" is rather vague, and with MT gone that's pretty much all the value as WK is tiny and the Rosgeo option has to be actually exercised and paid for before it is worth anything.

Well I didn't expect this gambit, I have to say. I'm withholding judgement until there are actual details of the transaction/dividend. If it represents real value being assigned to EUA's assets at anything close to the current market cap then I shall be duly astonished and freely admit I was wrong. I suspect there's a reason they haven't given any details, though. I'm sure the SP will be up tomorrow so congratulations to all holders on that!

Index weighting is adjusted quarterly. What's happening is that more people are buying into the index tracker funds (because the market is rising) and so the funds are automatically buying more shares in index components. Blackrock's holding has precisely nothing to do with EUA specifically.

And not, in fact, by 50-100x, as the absurd fantasy of EUA being bought out for £700m-3bn suggests.

Oh and also Shell's bid was at a 30% premium to the previous day's close, meaning that the market was not in fact undervaluing it by 3 times but more like 30%.

I'll give you the valuation on the Shell/BG deal as that was what it was worth when first proposed. When it completed it was actually $50 billion/£35 million, due to the drop in Shell's share price.

How can you not see that a premium of *at most* (disgregarding the strategic reasons) 3x is wildly, insanely different than a premium of 50-100x?

Calamari,

1) The deal was for $50bn, not $70bn.

2) Are you seriously trying to compare a huge merger which brought massive strategic benefits to Shell via intrastructure and market share, which they probably slightly (10-20%) overpaid for given oil prices at the time, to an AIM tiddler selling a low grade exploration asset for *fifty to one hundred times* what such assets are valued at by the world market?

BBs by themselves? Not to this level. I'm saying that the fact this BB is so active and so impervious to basic logic means that there are obviously a large number of private investors who have fully bought into the story and will not sell not matter what happens. Obviously quite a few *will* sell if/when the FSP fails hence the price will be much lower going forward, but there will clearly be enough believers to keep the mcap inflated way above the actual asset value. I'd guess £100-150m or around 4-8p med/long term following FSP failure.