Member Info for TheMadStork

The OP sounds delusional himself to me. £2m worth of shares and barely literate? Sure.

I do agree with his overall point, obviously, but he is giving bears a bad name!

What on *earth* are you talking about?! Here is the sequence of events:

1) ACF tweet saying they are going to release another report
2) I ask them who is paying for the report and receive no reply
3)The report comes out with a disclaimer saying that EUA paid
4)I post pointing out that EUA paid for the report

How are you not following this?

I don't follow. My point is that the report is marketing material paid for by the company and not actual regulated investment research, all of which is *clearly spelled out in the disclaimer on the very same report*. I don't see how that is in any way 'waffle'.

The fact is that every single one of predictions and assertions by the bulls have been proven wrong so far. The FSP did not result in a sale, there was in fact a placing simply to raise cash, UBS/DLA are in fact being paid for their work, there is no DFS for MT, the ACF report is a paid for advert etc etc.

The bears have called it exactly right so far, with the exception of underestimating just how skilled the board are at keeping the potential payout dangling, hence no price crash as yet.

However, I will make another prediction that in my view is certain to come true: there will be no answers to who is buying, what they're buying and how much they are paying by the AGM. The supposed mega payout will not being coming any time soon, that much I am certain of.

My question (which went unanswered, natch) was before they had actually released the report.

From the disclaimer, again:

ACF Equity Research Ltd is a provider of **issuer-pays** research with a clearly defined independent ethic.

It was paid for by EUA(the issuer of the securities), just like the last one was. It is worthless as investment research. Very good advert, though.

ACF are paid-for ad men. Their reports are completely ludicrous unregulated nonsense. From the disclaimer:

This research report and its contents are intended for professional investors and not for retail investors. **A marketing
communication under FCA Rules,** this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements
designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of
the dissemination of the investment research. ACF Equity Research Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial
Conduct Authority. **However the contents of this research report are produced as if ACF Equity Research Limited is
unregulated and consequently this report does not contain investment recommendations or ratings.**

The option to buy it for 100k *regardless of market price* i should have said. I have acquired a risk-free upside exposure to the price of aston martins, and I haven't paid you anything for it. Not sure how this concept is difficult to grasp tbh.

If you gave me the *option* of buying the aston martin for a set price then regardless of how much the buy price is, I still haven't actually paid anything to acquire that option. You've given me the option for free, in other words.

So I take it you're going to apologise for to TBTT for accusing him of being a liar re the warrants being free?

Wait, never mind; I know that's not how you guys roll.

Anyway, FWIW I actually kind of agree with you about 26.5 being a floor in the minds of PIs. Whether or not the disastrous upcoming results and accompanying audit statements and balance sheets, as well as lack of info re the asset sale will change that, who knows? Personally I doubt it, given that it's clear that the EUA investor base has no need for such trifles as revenue, profit, income, asset valuation etc.

The investor did not pay for the warrants, therefore they were free. They have risk-free upside exposure (assuming they have indeed already forward sold/are forward selling the shares, which I think is likely) since the warrants do not *have* to be exercised. If the share price spikes well above 26.5 then the investor can exercise and dump for a profit, if it crashes then they are under no obligation to exercise. It's a pretty sweet deal and warrants always make placings far, far more attractive.

The JV option had two years to run and they still had $5m+ in the bank. Absolutely no need to do this raise now if they are really about to sell assets. There is no dividend coming, that much is clear.

Like I said, though, this latest bit of genius from the board might actually get me to close my short as I don't see the price dropping that much below 26.5 in the short/medium term. Well done to all; you won't get your payout but there won't be a crash either, which is an incredible outcome really.

Any thoughts as to why one would raise $20m if one was about to have billions in hand from a sale?

I can currently buy 100,000 shares in a click, which means that there's an MM (Berenberg) sitting there with 100k shares for sale and this keeps getting reloaded. Once those 100k blocks stop getting dumped on the ask, then I think we can safely say the seller is gone and the price will move towards fairer value. Til then it's just a question of buying volume staying high.

There is still a large seller dumping stock onto the market, which is why the price still hasn't really moved. However, volume is way up, which will help clear the blockage faster than otherwise.

Mark: Of course the PFS/ reserves report was *a* condition of the contract; contracts do tend to have multiple conditions, you know! Every single FID on a EPC contract requires a DFS to be done. No exceptions. Nobody on earth is going to lend money without a detailed breakdown of expected costs and returns, which a PFS alone does not provide.

Not sure where you're getting $10m from? HEPS is substantially the same as EPS, at $0.21-22/share. 269 x 0.215 = $57.83m headline earnings.

Excellent news; towards the top end of my expectations. As bangrak notes, EPS far higher still post-period. Surely this should be enough to clear the logjam and allow THS to move to fairer value.

I will make two predictions: if either are wrong then grovelling public apology it is:

1)There will never be a dividend paid exceeding 2p/share
2)There will be a placing *strictly to raise cash* at some point. I'm not *quite* as sure as I was that it'll be pre AGM (on account of no possible PUSU deadline, so I pre-emptively apologise for being as confident as I was in that. I freely admit the BoD have played an absolute blinder with the dividend gambit.

TC: That is a PFS, not a DFS.

Opto: That's a fair point and I fully agree... except that they could have had this EGM at any time and instead urgently arranged it mere weeks before they could/will have passed a similar resolution at the upcoming AGM. The EGM, therefore, only makes sense if they wanted to be able to raise quickly.

"...the equity in WK/MT that *EUA* don't own", that should read!

Treadingcarefully, despite your constant, barely-literate abuse: I believe a placing is coming because otherwise there was absolutely no point in holding the EGM. One thing that does make me slightly less certain is that since they've now exited the FSP they are no longer up against a possible 1 year PUSU deadline from the Takeover Panel, so it's possible the need to get a placing away is not quite as urgent. Again, we shall see.