Member Info for TheMadStork

Ok, find me an up to date sale of in-ground undeveloped PGMs. The Marathon project I linked is valued at £65m for 8.7moz of Pd equiv in the ground, and it has a PEA, DFS and is in a safe jurisdiction, so each oz of Pd equiv is relatively more valuable than that at MT. Yet the bulls here would value MT at £500m+ for 1.8moz.

"1.9 M proven 40% value at 2000 basket price x 80% ownership = 1.2B"

See pages 33-35 of this report.

Https://www.edisongroup.com/sector-report/gold-stars-and-black-holes/23211/

Undeveloped PGMs in the ground were worth around 0.35% of spot 2017-2019. That makes MT worth about $12m, $24m if you assume prices have doubled since that report. However, realistically it is probably worth nothing on the market given the lack of DFS, hostile jurisdiction, limited mining license and seasonality of mining.

Every single undeveloped PGM project on the planet is valued at a tiny fraction of EUA's mcap/oz. , and most of them are objectively more advanced and valuable. To give one particularly up-to-date example:

Generation Mining's Marathon palladium project has 8.7moz Pd equiv in a safe established jurisdiction, has had both a PEA and DFS done, giving it an NPV of around £500m, yet Generation's mcap is just £65m. Marathon is objectively and inarguably far more valuable and advanced than MT, so why does the market value it at around 1/8th of EUA's mcap? See here:

Https://www.genmining.com/projects/marathon-property/

"13M unproven but with historical data and recent infills x 5% x 2000 x 80% = 1B"

Russian P2 resources are worth zero on the market. Literally zero. If you disagree, please point out an example where anyone paid over $0 for Russian P2 PGM resources. You won't find one as they are worth nothing.

Montechundra is worth a max of $24m. More likely it is worth nothing.

"WK just a guess as no real figures but first full season and 3 wash plants = 10p x 67% = 6.7p"

WK has never made a profit, has a tiny resource and is on the audited balance sheet at £3.1m. This is fair, I think. Even if the additional wash plants eke out a tiny profit somehow, it is immaterial to EUA's massive mcap.

Don't take it personally, spoon. This always happens in the deflation phase of any massive PI favourite overhyped nonsense bubble stock. The overwhelming majority of LSE posters are long, and emotionally attached. All they want to hear are things that validate their existing belief that they are going to be rich, and have invested wisely. Anything that so much as mildly challenges that belief is met with extreme hostility. I've seen it time and again, and believe me, the EUA fanatics are positively friendly compared to some of the charmers who have been long other bubbles.

As a PDMR he would, of course, have to notify the market of any dealings anyway. Technically of course. The rules and penalties are less stringent for non directors.

Minor correction: The directors (mostly CS) in fact hold around 4%. DS is no longer a director, having left the board to "concentrate on the sales process".

Layla: I have been short to a greater or lesser degree since Dec 2020, as anyone tedious enough to go through my post history can confirm. I was long EUA at one point in 2015, but I have not bought a single share since.

My prediction remains the same: EUA will almost certainly never pay any dividend, and if it does it will be no greater than greater than 2p/share.

There will, however, be another placing at some stage. That is the reason the BoD have indulged PI fantasies - to raise as much cash as possible before the bubble pops. They have raised £20m so far, which is greater than the entire pre Oct 2019 mcap. From that perspective, they have been doing an amazing job, and one might argue that they in fact have a duty to raise as much as possible for the company while the valuation remains at this completely absurd level.

There is simply no comparison to be made. Marathon is drill-ready and has robust economics, proven in a PEA and DFS, in a safe, established jurisdiction with 5x the JORC resource. It has an NPV of around £500m. MT has absolutely none of that and is clearly, objectively worth far less.

SB:

Zak Mir, as he often does, is talking total nonsense. There are no NPV or IRR figures for MT, as a DFS has not been done. If you dispute this, please point to the relevant RNS containing these figures.

The only real argument consistently mustered by bulls is an appeal to authority. Why would UBS, DLA Piper etc be involved? Well, the answer is simple: they are being paid. EUA is not a scam or a fraud. It has not directly lied in an RNS. It's just that the company is wildly, wildly overvalued. This sort of thing happens all the time on AIM, where the naive fantasies of punters are indulged by BoDs keen to raise as much money as possible. It's not illegal and UBS/DLA will suffer zero reputational damage.

Can any of the bulls here answer me this one simple question: Is MT more valuable on the market than Marathon? If so, why? Again, here is the link to the details: https://www.genmining.com/site/assets/files/3885/gen_mining_pp_-_july_21_2021-compressed.pdf

I believe you are confusing me with TBTT. I have never made those claims.

I'm simply a full time AIM trader/investor with a focus on resources who consequently has a passing familiarity with the economics of mining. And it does not take an expert to see that EUA's assets are worth absolutely nowhere near the current mcap. Roughly half an hour's research into the PGM space and the relative valuations and sales values achieved should be enough for anyone to come to the same conclusion.

"6 wrong, 100B in resource in the ground as per Cadastre. JORC will be done on the ones we cherry pick, or all, as we sell them on. Nyud will be in out hands shortly"

Russian P2 PGM resources are worth literally zero in the ground on market. Absolutely zero. If you disagree, please find an example of anyone paying literally anything for them on market. And again, even if they weren't, **EUA do not own anything other than a $500k option**

Ultimately, I realise it is pointless engaging with people who are set in their beliefs and will not be shifted whatever the objective evidence. That said:

"1. Wrong, there is a mining plan in place and can be activated at any time. They have chosen not to as it is being sold."

Every single mining EPCF in the entire world requires a DFS in order to be activated. This is because nobody in their right mind lends that amount of money without a detailed cost-benefit analysis (inc NPV, IRR, AISC) which is simply not provided by the *Pre-Feasibility Study* that they have. There was an RNS saying there were unspecified conditions that needed to be fulfilled before the Sinosteel contract could be activated. A DFS will 100% have been one of those.

"2. Wrong, 1.9M proven to mining standards and to whoever mines it with the low costs probalby a basket price of 2000 would be about right. So do the maths 200 x 1.9M"

10% of spot price for undeveloped PGM resources in the ground is sheer fantasy. For undeveloped projects, the average is 0.35%

"3 Wrong, there are not dozens of other projects with under developed resources. It is why it is the last unconsolidated play and there are many suitors and offers."

Apart from Marathon (5x MT JORC resource, PEA, DFS done, safe jurisdiction, valued on market at £65m), there are tons of others.
SSW alone has 5 projects all more advanced than MT, in an established jurisdiction, with a total of around 65m oz indicated and measured resource. The market attributes very little value to these.

There may have been offers but there have been zero details disclosed about who is buying and how much they are paying. Certainly there have been no firm offers or they would have have to have been disclosed. The reason is that MT is just not worth anything remotely close to the current market cap. This is simply inarguable.

-"4 Wk, now in it;s first proper seasons with 3 wash plants running will make a significant profit. As we are debt free with money in the Bank hardly think last season matters now"

EUA's own DFS figures show WK to have a tiny resource spread over millions of tons of gravel. It has consistently made a loss, and the 3 additional wash plants will not make a material difference. Remember, EUA's mcap is massive, and WK is miniscule. The interims at end Sep will no doubt show yet another loss.

"5 Wrong, Rosgeo went with us over NN as they were having all sorts of problems and our green crendtials are immaculate."

This is just laughably, insanely naive. You really, honestly think that the Russian state would choose an AIM tiddler, mostly owned by British PIs, over a huge Russian-owned business to get prime assets? If so, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.

Here is the heart of the problem:

1)MT. This is an early stage undeveloped exploration resource in the most hostile of juristidictions. There is no DFS so a mine cannot be even be started until one is done, a 1-2 year process. This is because nobody in their right mind would lend money for a $200m+ project without a detailed cost-benefit analysis being done, and yes this includes Sinosteel. The mining license runs out in 2038, giving an absolute max LoM of 13 years.

There is a JORC resource of 1.8moz Pd equiv, mostly indicated. This is worth at the absolute most around $12m, per $ paid for actual sales of undeveloped PGM resources. Realistically it is worth almost nothing on the market given the above issues. The supposed extra 15moz is Russian P2 reserves, which are worth literally zero in the ground. If you dispute this, please find an example of anyone paying literally anything for P2 PGM resources in the ground. Literally anything above $0. You won't find it as they are worth nothing.

There are literally dozens of other undeveloped PGM projects with far greater resources, far more drilling done, and **actually been developed to being the point of drill-ready**, which MT manifestly is not. For example, Generation Mining's Marathon palladium project has 8.7moz Pd equiv in a safe established jurisdiction, has had both a PEA and DFS done, giving it an NPV of around £500m, yet Generation's mcap is just £65m. Marathon is objectively and inarguably far more valuable and advanced than MT, so why does the market value it at around 1/8th of EUA's mcap, let alone the fantasy figures being tossed around for MT. See here for details on Marathon: https://www.genmining.com/site/assets/files/3885/gen_mining_pp_-_july_21_2021-compressed.pdf

It is an objective fact that MT is functionally worth very, very little based on the stage of the project and historic and current prices paid for undeveloped PGMs in the ground. This is completely inarguable. Bulls never, ever address this fundamental point, which basically means there will never, ever be a dividend paid of anything even remotely close to the current mcap, let alone the fantasy figures. It's just a fact.

2) WK has never made a profit ever, has a tiny resource and even if the new wash plants somehow eke out a tiny profit is simply immaterial to EUA's massive mcap. Audited balance sheet puts it at £3.1m.

3) EUA paid Rosgeo $500k for the JV. Leaving aside the fact that the Russian state would never allow a foreign company access to anything decent without first offering it to NN, meaning the assets are likely totally worthless and are certainly worthless on the market at present in the absense of a JORC resource, EUA *have not paid for anything* they do not own any of it. Even if the license areas contained bars of solid palladium lying on the ground, they are *still worth absolutely zero to any buyer as EUA have not paid for any of it*

Thank Christ for that.

Hector: No probs. I have nothing against anyone here (except for a couple of nasty pieces of work, who, while aggressively abusive, are nowhere near as nasty as other super fans of various AIM PI favourites I've shorted in the past.) I'm just betting the other way to most. I've explained my reasons, made my predictions and shall leave it at that.

Er that should be "when any *AIM* minnow..."

And the reason of course is simple: It is psychologically much easier to blame poor share price performance on some evil cabal than it is to admit the simple truth: The share price is declining because holders, large and small, are selling their shares.

Hector: Spreadex will allow you to go long (and short, as I am) via a spreadbet. I'm quite surprised they opened it back up actually since they stopped allowing it around the time IG did, and no other provider that I know of offers it.

Anyway, as pointed out by others, the total short position in EUA is neglible and changes in it have almost zero day to day impact. Talk of dark forces, manipulation and 'shorting crews' is complete paranoid nonsense. Such delusion is entirely par for the course among PIs who are long (who represent the vast, vast majority of the hot money in any of these shares) when any massively over-inflated EUA minnow enters the deflation stage.

Gingerhippo:

You are comparing apples to automobiles. NAP had a fully functioning mine with a massive LoM and all associated infrastructure.

MT doesn't even have a DFS. It's completely undeveloped. It requires tons of work doing before a mine can even be built. The edison report I linked compares apples to apples, ie what similar undeveloped resources have sold for. And since NT has mediocre grades, no DFS and is in a hostile jurisdiction, I'd say its value is in fact well below average.

The edison report is old, you say? Well leaving aside the fact that prices would have had to have multiplied by 50+ times since then to justify the current mcap (and remember MT is well below average anyway), how about a comparison with Generation Mining's Marathon palladium project? It is objectively hugely more advanced and valuable than MT, having had both a PEA and DFS done, has 4x the resource plus loads of copper, is in a safe jurisdiction and has an NPV of around £600m. Yet SSW recently passed on taking a majority stake, and Generation's mcap is just £65m.

Valuing MT at any more than marathon is absurd, and talk of it fetching the current EUA mcap is simply delusional.

Yes I have a (now sizable) short, because as I have posted repeated since December 2020, it is screamingly obvious that EUA's assets are worth only a small fraction of the current ludicrous market cap. There is therefore absolutely zero chance of any dividend of more than >10% of the current mcap being paid. I believe the price will eventually reflect this, therefore I am short.

The value of *verified measured and indicated PGM resources* in the ground is a max of about 0.35% of the spot price, per this report:

https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/GoldStarsandBlackHoles_220119.pdf See pages 33-35.

Even if you assume it's doubled or trebled since then due to the PGM bull market, the 2moz at MT are worth a maz of about $20m.

The value of inferred resources is pretty much zero, and the 104.5moz in the JV are a category below inferred, so it's safe to say they are worth zero in the ground. Even if they were literally solid bars of platinum laying in a field, however, they would still be worth nothing to EUA at present, as they haven't actually paid for any of it.