Member Info for TheMadStork

I got absolutely crucified for pointing out that CEB/ADL was a cash shell with zero cash valued at £12m pre suspension.

If he has done any sort of transaction, transfer or no, it needs to be immediately RNSed. That said, I don't actually believe it until there's actual proof beyond a BB post, since I refuse to pay Bloomberg's extortionate fees for realtime share register updates.

Please post proof.

I take it that financial advise is fully FCA regulated?

I kid, of course.

£3k per penny either way.

I'm completely comfortable in my position. The price will not drop in a straight line, and I have no doubt there will be mini spikes now and again, but every RNS that does not contain info on the 'asset sale' and 'dividend' will eventually simply be sold into. Since I believe a sale/dividend RNS for anything remotely close to the current mcap is completely impossible, I'm totally comfortable where I am.

Calamari: Cheers. I do try. Of course I will continue to post; no need to worry about that. As I have said many times, I never take abuse or having posts mass reported personally.

I've had death threats/threats against family from fanatical fans of AIM junk before, so BB drama is water off a duck's back at this point.

And again, I would simply point out that I raised obvious questions re the valuation in the high 30s, a time when the rampers here were insisting the SP would go into the £s and everyone would be rich. Given what has happened since, I would in fact suggest that it is the people who insisted, day after day, that the company was *undervalued* and who did their best to silence any dissent, who need to take a look at themselves.

Actually my short is up to £3k/point after Spreadex graciously started allowing new shorts again. Still not massive, I grant but a decent wedge.

And the reason I spend so much time on it is simply that I'm fascinated by the EUA story.

The EUA sale process started in October 2019, when EUA, capped at £10m, announced it was looking to sell its assets. Almost 2 years up for sale with zero bids. All for a miniscule perma-loss-making gravel-washing operation, plus a small PGM resource with no DFS. If anyone was actually interested it would have been over and done with in weeks. Instead, that announcement kicked off one of the largest and longest lived ramping bubbles I've seen on AIM in over 9 years of trading, resulting in an mcap that peaked around **£1.2bn**, £20m raised and 0p in assets sold.

And the bubble is still *far* from fully deflated. It's utterly fascinating. (And very profitable to short, obviously)

There are no 'bigs'. The total short position amounts to around 13m shares, or roughly 0.5% of the stock in issue. There are no institutional short positions, bar the index trackers auto-balancing their positions which amounts to a few hundred k shares at most. There are never any II shorts in any of these PI-driven stock bubbles because there's zero borrow available on account of 99% of the stock being with PIs or the board/insiders.

All this talk of manipulation, shorting gangs, paid shorters etc is utter paranoid nonsense. 99.5% of the stock is long. I do not believe in anyone being paid to ramp, but if I did, it's approx 200x more likely than delusional fantasies of paid shorters.

This is all par for the course when it comes to the deflation phase of mega-popular retail stock bubbles. People are unwilling to accept they have made a bad call, so when the stock starts inevitably tanking, they start blaming external dark forces. After all, [insert PI favourite stock ticker here] is amazing, and nobody could *possibly* be dumping it in large numbers. I mean, they'd be mad to, right?

Seen it time and again. Always the same.

Like I said to you before, you are comparing apples to automobiles. Kevitska had a fully functioning mine and production when sold, the result of years of effort and hundreds of millions of dollars of capex. MT does not even have a DFS. It is a ludicrous comparison.

Given the huge boom in PGMs, it will surely be easy for you to find an apples-to-apples example for MT? That is, a sale or valuation of an undeveloped PGM project (with no DFS valued at anything remotely close to EUA's mcap/JORC oz? It must be the case that undeveloped PGMs in the ground are selling like hotcakes and the market is red hot with dozens of transactions to pick from?

The reality is that PGMs in ground are worth very, very little and hardly anyone ever buys them. This is because
a)There are huge resources already owned by majors (eg SSW has 392moz JORC pgm oz)
b)There is massive uncertainty about the long term state of the PGM market -especially palladium- due to the impending demise of ICEs and subsqent lack of need for CCs.

Like I said, if you disagree, please give an example. I'm sure it won't be hard to find.

"You really are a tool TMS. How about valuations in general on companies. Here is a good example

Snowflake valued at $84bn mcap at around $1bn in revenue.
Datadog, MongoDB at the same revenue not far off valued at a quarter or a 3rd.

All technology companies in big markets for their respective tech. Why the gulf?

Simple fact is you dont have a clue of how these companies are valued and again you spout utter rubbish, all day everyday. Its easy to do that behind a faceless multiple moniker. Your paymasters are getting very very desperate.

How about you justify why it isnt valued at what its valued based on fundamentals, other companies are not a barometer."

I suggest all EUA longs who have literally any market experience whatsoever take a good, long look at this post. This (and the 8+ at time of writing who have recommended his post) is your fellow traveler. Just look at it and wonder... "if Andre01 and those like him are long, have I *really* made the right decision here?"

I know very close to bugger all about geology... but I do know something about markets. Non-JORC PGMs are worth zero in ground on market. If you disagree please provide and example sale. JORC PGM resources are worth very little in ground, especially without a DFS and doubly especially in Russia. If you disagree please provide an example that comes anywhere remotely close to EUA's valuation per JORC oz.

Surely this will not be difficult to find given the red hot market for PGMs, right?

TC: *non-JORC PGMs*, ie what is on the MT flanks and at Nyud /rest of JV are worth zero on market. Literally zero. If you disagree please find a single example in history of anyone buying them on market for less than zero.

*JORC* PGMs in ground, with a DFS/BFS, are *not* worth zero, but are still not worth much in the context of EUA's massive mcap (leaving aside that MT does not have a DFS, meaning it is worth $0 on market).

Judgemental:

Given the huge boom in PGMs then, it will surely be easy for you to find the example I asked for? It must be the case that undeveloped PGMs in the ground are selling like hotcakes and the market is red hot with dozens of transactions to pick from?

The reality is that PGMs in ground are worth very, very little and hardly anyone ever buys them. This is because
a)There are huge resources already owned by majors (eg SSW has 392moz JORC pgm oz)
b)There is massive uncertainty about the long term state of the PGM market -especially palladium- due to the impending demise of ICE and subsqent lack of need for CC.

Like I said, if you disagree, please give an example. I'm sure it won't be hard to find.

Novicesamm:

Please post an example of me being proved wrong on valuation. (I accept I called a couple of things wrong, eg index removal) but that does not affect my overall point - that the current valuation is completely absurd and there can never, ever be a sale of MT for anything close to the current mcap.

Like I said, I have been flagging the valuation as nonsense since the late 30s. Every single prediction I have made (FSP failure, placing, no news on divi at AGM) has been proved right.

Actually I am now £3k/point short, since Spreadex started allowing new shorts again. Not huge, but a decent wedge. And I will say that of all my positions -long and short- it is the one I am most utterly confident in.

EthioEthio:

"Click on my screen name and see my post - ' Why Dimitry invested - Benchmark'. You will see a company which is similar to MT sold for $712m and that was back in 2016 when prices were much lower."

Kevitsa had a functiong mine (the result of hundreds of millions of $ of capex) and production when sold, as well as being primarily copper/nickel rather than solely PGM. You are comparing apples to automobiles.

Show me an example of a comparable project (undeveloped PGM resource with no DFS) which has sold or is valued at anything *remotely* close to MT's implied mcap/JORC oz. Any place, any time, any market. Do that, and you have my word that I will close my short.

That basically sums up the bull case. No attempt to justify the (patently ludicrous when compared to peers) valuation. Simply abuse or head-in-sand filtering.

I'm not surprised or ever really offended by this, as it is merely a symptom of those who are emotionally attached unwilling to reassess their positions. Reassessment of deeply held beliefs is very, very difficult for anyone to do and why throughout history, no matter how obvious the losing cause, there have always been believers til the very end.

Best of luck all.

I mean, not to toot my own horn, but my first post raising very obvious concerns re the valuation was when the SP was in the high 30s. I started shorting at 40p. (since hugely increased and averaged down - avg now 27) The share price is now 16.25p.

Every single prediction I've made has been right, in stark contrast to those of the 1000 post/month rampers.

A JORC resource at Nyud, (of which they currently own 0%) which is what this RNS refers to, will be a year off at minimum. And even if they manage one it will be worthless without spending years on a DFS, and close to worthless *with* one, in the context of the mcap. As has been explained repeatedly, even JORC PGM resources are worth very little in the ground.

The whole Rosgeo JV is simply a can-kicking exercise to give them some guff to spout to distract the faithful from the never-happening 'asset sale' and 'dividend'.

Any RNS that does not include concrete progress on the 'asset sale' will cause a temporary spike, at best, which will then be sold into. The hot money, ie what actually moves the share price, is here for quick riches, not jam-tomorrow guff.

Best of luck all.