Member Info for TheMadStork

On a side note, SSW recently refused to commit to Generation Mining's Marathon Pd-dominant project, which is far more advanced than MT, with 6.6moz pd equiv, tons of copper on top of that, a DFS showing £500m NPV and a stonking IRR of around 30%. Generation's mcap is currently only £65m. EUA's is £600m, despite the fact that MT is objectively absolutely nowhere close to being as valuable.

This just emphasises how screamingly absurd EUA's valuation is. The NPV of the Marathon project is around £500m with insanely good IRR, yet SSW are cool on it and Generation's mcap is just £65m.

Quick tip: Anyone with an IG account can get a rough idea of rhodium price action live, by following the db Physical Rhodium ETC and 1nvest Rhodium ETF markets. They don't trade a whole lot, but the two together do provide a fair picture of what's going on day-to-day.

If the OP's expectations are typical then I rather think there's going to be a lot of disappointed punters. The only news will be about the resolutions that have already been announced. They cannot suddenly add new ones with no notice.

The fundamental, inescapable fact is that EUA's assets are simply not worth anything close to the current mcap. While there may be an eventual payout, the company simply cannot pay a dividend of anything like the amounts dreamed of by naive punters.

Well done to those who got in early and who had the foresight to take substantial profit. I'm sure there will be bounces along the way. but I'm afraid that long term there is only one, inevitable, destination.

They need to raise PDQ. I'll take the raise or buy in after. Don't see the need to buy beforehand tbh.

Literally the only point of the EGM was to be able to raise cash PDQ. Anyone who was surprised by the fact that EUA did in fact raise cash should be radically reassessing their investment strategy.

"The share price is a joke, this has to be worth more than current market cap."

The problem is that EUA's assets are simply not worth anything like the current mcap. They are worth far, far less. Hence the complete lack of bids over the 20 months its been on sale, with £20m raised and 0p paid out to holders.

Osf: The reduction in carrying value most assuredly does *not* count as a cost of sale on the income statement. No idea where you got that idea from. WK made a gross loss in 2020; there's no way round that fact. If they had simply shut it down entirely for the year they'd be £200k better off.

And let's say that the increase in production next year *does* manage to make it produce a small net profit, heck, let's go wild and say it makes £2m net in 2021, at a time of record PGM prices. That *still* doesn't make its NPV any more than £10-15m. No matter how you slice it, WK is not going to get you anywhere close to even a tenth of the current mcap.

I suppose I should also have added "...and without resorting to the tired old 'shorting conspiracy' nonsense". Seems like an obvious oversight on my part, since the bulls here resort to delusion and name calling at the drop of a hat.

Anyone care to actually dispute the figures and give a justified higher valuation?

The bulls in here have made prediction after prediction that have been proved completely wrong over the last 20 months of the company's assets being on sale, the result of said 'sale process' being £20m cash raised and 0p paid out to shareholders. How much longer before it sinks in that there is no payout of any kind coming?

The market cap is being sustained by the carrot of a supposed mega dividend payout, however EUA's assets are not worth anything close to the current mcap, let alone the huge premiums dreamed of by punters who have been suckered in by the insane ramping over the last 20 months.

WK is not economic. It has lost money every single year its been operational and made a *gross loss* of £200k in 2020, despite high PGM prices. It is valued on the audited balance sheet at £3.1m and I see absolutely no way to justify valuing it higher, given that the figures in the DFS show it to have tiny reserves spread over a huge volume of gravel.

MT is worth very little. It has 1.9moz proved up JORC standard 2E resource. Undeveloped proved up PGM resources are worth a max of 0.35% of the spot price in the ground, per historic sales of similar assets. See pages 33-35 of this report: Https://www.edisongroup.com/sector-report/gold-stars-and-black-holes/23211/ making MT's resource worth a max of $12m.
You might say that's an out of date report from a PGM bear market, but:

a)Do we really think the value of undeveloped PGM resources in the ground has gone up by 5000%+ since 2019, as would be needed to make MT worth anything close to current mcap

b)MT is actually almost certainly worth far below average price anyway due to mediocre grades, hostile jurisdiction, lack of infrastructure, rouble weakness and, most damningly of all, *no DFS*. Without a DFS a mine cannot even be funded, let alone built at MT.

Realistically I believe MT to be worth at most £5m, and anything over £50m to be delusional. And don't bring up the 15moz speculative resource. Those are Russian P2 resources, which is a category well below Inferred. They are completely worthless in the ground.

So adding up WK and MT we get a realistic £8m or a balls-out-pants-on head fantasy of £50-60m. That equates to a maximum of 2p/share that the company could possibly pay out.

If anyone would like to dispute those figures using actual data rather than simple appeals to authority (UBS/DLA/board supposed expertise) then feel free, however I do not believe there is any way to get the assets to anything close to £500m, hence the fundamental problem.

GFD: I'm genuinely interested as you seem marked more intelligent than the average punter: How do you value WK?Presumably you think WK is worth more than the £3.1m the auditor thinks it's worth? I am at a loss as to how anyone could justify that given years of losses and this year's gross loss?

EthioEthio: I know I shouldn't be surprised by you not knowing this, but capital expenditure, as on the equipment, is *not* classed as a 'cost of sale' and therefore has absolutely nothing to do with the gross loss recorded. The figures are perfectly clear:

Sales 937,962
Cost of sales (1,131,954)
Gross (loss)/profit (193,992)

But it's making a *gross loss*. If they triple the output then that will just triple the loss.

Nitrokev:

But the bull case -and the justification for the current insane market cap- is that EUA will sell its assets for £1bn+. I have seen people suggest WK is worth upwards of £500m. The annual report clearly shows it to be unable to even turn a *gross* profit, thus making it completely worthless, other than the £3.6m the auditors assign it for carrying value.

How much do you value WK at?

In fact the figures show that WK made a *gross loss* of almost £200k, which means that if they'd not mined anything at all and kept everything else the same, they'd be £200k better off.

EUA would be best served paying someone to take it off their hands; per the annual report WK is worse than worthless.

The annual report shows that in 2020 WK once again made a stonking loss, and at historically high PGM prices. It is simply not economic and any valuation over the audited balance sheet number is sheer fantasy. From Page 28 of the report:

West Kyltim, which is fully operational, is only operational in summer months, due to freezing conditions in winter months. The carrying value of the mining assets for this project as at 31 December 2020 is £3,142,533 (2019: £3,802,857).

Well looks like my prediction was correct. The AGM will indeed provide no answers to the following questions:

1)Who is buying?
2)What are they buying?
3)How much are they paying?

I does seem that we can answer the following question though:

4)Will the board use the AGM to given themselves the ability to place another 500m shares (£500,000 at nominal 0.1p)?

To which the answer is a resounding "Yes!"

Will this entirely predictable lack of progress deter believers? Who knows? After all, the company has been up for sale for **20 months** and has received no bids and returned not a penny to shareholders. How much longer will punters wait?

Rebs: WK has 4477kg of raw Pt equiv in approx 16 million tonnes of gravel, or about 0.27g/t. Multiply that by 70% for pure PGM recovery rate and then by 68% for EUA's ownership and you get about 0.13g/t platinum equivalent per tonne attributable to EUA. Take off smelter fees of 3-5%, and for every tonne of gravel washed, EUA are earning about $5.75 *before expenses*. These are not economically viable numbers, to put it mildly.

Talk of WK being worth $200m or $1bn or whatever is sheer delusion. It is worth very, very little.