Member Info for TheMadStork

Feel free to hurl all the mindless abuse you want. Makes no odds to me.

Can anyone name any legitimate sale of a listed company in history where said company did even one private placing to raise cash in the middle of the sale process? How about 3? Any legitimate sale process in history where it lasted 25 months and absolutely no guidance was given regarding what was for sale, who was bidding for it or how much they were paying?

No? Of course not, because it is blindingly obvious that EUA are not, and were never, going to sell anything for a figure remotely close to the current insane mcap.

"Due Diligence is DONE - The clock is ticking - executing a final contract for sale!"

Getting on for 6 weeks now. Where's the update? Will the regulator allow them to simply transfer the ramp to other unnamed 'bidders'? Will PIs stand for it if they do?

Here is the list of criteria, in full:

Criteria for applicants

Resident status can be obtained by commercial organisations and individual entrepreneurs registered in the Russian Arctic Zone.

The minimum amount of capital investments in the investment project must be at least 1,000,000 rubles [£10k] (excluding VAT).

The investment project or business activity must be new to the Applicant at the time of filing of the Application.

A new project is deemed to be a project in which, at the time of filing of the application, the amount of capital investments made is less than 25% of the total investments provided for in the business plan (excluding the costs of purchasing subsurface use licences (if any).

The Applicant may not have the status of a participant in a regional investment project

The Applicant may not be in the process of reorganisation, liquidation or bankruptcy.

The Applicant must not have arrears in taxes and fees and insurance contributions to state extra-budgetary funds of the Russian Federation or debts with regard to other obligatory payments to the budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation for the past calendar year in an amount exceeding twenty-five percent of the book value of the Applicant's assets

These mega amazing benefits are in fact available to anyone with £10k to invest in the Russian Arctic. Despite EUA's desperate attempt to make it look as though this is some kind of super special unique state aid, the same help is extended to all businesses larger than a small corner shop.

https://investarctic.com/en/azrf.php

Also, the "Mining Plan" was completely worthless since it gave (and indeed could not give) cost and revenue figures. Again, lots more work needs doing to prove the viability of MT as an economic resource.

"The C2 amounts which make up the vast majority of what is booked at MT are of value as possibly all of them are now economic to extract."

I'm sorry but there is absolutely no evidence that this is the case. There is no DFS, or even a PEA, meaning that there is no AISC, no IRR, no NPV. Without those figures it's entirely guesswork.

As you correctly point out, much more drilling needs to be done before those figures can be provided. Until that work is done, there is no way that you can say with confidence that the C2 is economic to extract. With that being the case, peer valuations and transactions suggest MT to be worth very little.

"but hopefully some money to be made with the JV now in play."

Again, EUA have not paid for the licenses. Unless you are suggesting that Rosgeo will charge them below market value and gift money to British PIs, there is no way any of the JV assets can have immediate net value to EUA. That is to say, EUA could not pay for their interest in the licenses then immediately turn round and sell it for more than they bought it for.

The JV assets may well provide some net value for EUA at some point in the future, after they have paid for them and then done work to add value. At present, though, the entire worth of the JV can only be that of the option. Any suggestion that it will magically add millions, tens of millions or hundreds of millions in value is simply completely illogical.

No probs.

What actual value would you put on MT in its current state though? The only proved up resource is 1.8moz Pd equiv, 98% of which is C2. There is no DFS or any sort of study which shows it's even economic to mine. Comparative valuations and transactions suggest MT is worth very little, even if it wasn't located in a jurisdiction attracting a massive discount for political risk.

Interested in your thoughts.

Of course they will. It's natural and human nature not to trust someone who is betting the other way to you. I get that and its why (the vast majority) of abuse etc does not bother me in the slightest.

I've always been 100% honest about my position and incentives. Can you honestly say the same about the social media/BB rampers-in-chief who have been busy 'derisking' while encouraging PIs to gamble their savings on what, even if you don't believe is a spoof, is still an incredibly risky AIM punt?

MrYFronts:

Just bumping this to ask again for your view on the market value of EUA's currently owned resources. I'm genuinely interested in your thoughts as you seem to have some degree of mining industry knowledge, in stark contrast to the hard-of-thinking gamblers here.

These mega amazing special incentives are available to anyone with £10k to invest and a penchant for freezing weather.

"The Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation is a new instrument of the state support that extends over the entire territory of the Arctic Zone. Companies that have submitted projects with an investment volume of more than 1 million rubles [£10k] can obtain the status of resident in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and take advantage of benefits and preferences."

You do realise that anyone with £10k to invest in the Arctic can get this tax break, right?

"The Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation is a new instrument of the state support that extends over the entire territory of the Arctic Zone. Companies that have submitted projects with an investment volume of more than 1 million rubles [£10k] can obtain the status of resident in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and take advantage of benefits and preferences."

What? I'm saying that EUA paid $500k for its option. Any possible potential buyer would also have paid $500k. Therefore EUA's option is worth $500k to any buyer. It is not rocket science.

Pukki:

Come on now. We are discussing the value of the JV to a potential buyer, whom most here seem to think will be NN or some other Russian outfit. Do you *really* believe that any (massive, Russian owned) potential buyer could not have easily obtained the JV option that the Russian state gave to British PI-owned AIM tiddler EUA? Any suggestion that it is worth more to a Russian buyer than EUA paid for it is simply crackers.

What do you reckon is the market value of the resources EUA currently actually own? Based on peer valuations and transactions?

MrYFronts:

Are you saying that Rosgeo will not charge EUA market value for buying in? If they do, then there can be no immediate net gain in value, ie EUA cannot immediately turn round and sell their interest for more than they bought it for. If they don't, then Rosgeo will have gifted value to British PIs, which I think we can both agree is unlikely.

The current net value of the JV to EUA is $500k and that will not increase until they have paid for the licenses *and added value beyond that*. Not sure why this is at all controversial.

I'd have no problem admitting if I thought it was a good ramp and thus likely to cause a big spike.

Fact is though, it has nothing to do with the 'sale' or with any supposed imminent megariches from the JV assets that EUA do not own. Can't see a big spike tbh.

Don't see this shifting the price beyond possibly a small spike on open.

Where's the sale update?

Mizman:

Well that's very kind of you to say. I've never made any secret of my position. It does make me laugh that people will automatically discount what I say as being self-interested (and of course it is, but that doesn't mean I'm wrong), while uncritically praising the dedicated rampers copy/pasting nonsense and/or abuse for thousands of posts a month.

Calamari:

Yeah no doubt. That just makes it all the more hilarious that EUA PIs seem to think the state will gift *them* free money and not the putin-backed megacorp next door.

Calamari:

It's not that complicated. EUA approached them saying they wanted help selling the company. UBS said yes and are taking fees for doing nothing. When the no sale rns comes, EUA will obviously not say that there was never any chance of a sale, they will say that having studied the options the board have decided it is best to go alone. No reputational damage for UBS, retainers banked, trebles all round.

As to why other AIM cos don't do this, it takes quite a bit of time and money to set up with no guarantee of success. I would expect others to start doing similar though, after what EUA have done.