Member Info for TheMadStork

"The results will be good, can't see them being anything other than good."

I beg to differ. Despite a recent uplift thanks to a few successful blockbusters, 2022 YTD total US box office revenue is just 60% of 2019 (per boxofficemojo). This is materially below CINE's 'base case' scenario and I would expect to see yet another substantial operating loss in H1 2022. Why do you think there have been no discretionary trading updates for 6 months? CINE were pumping them out regularly at the tail end of last year. Silence speaks volumes.

Can they find $300m to pay off enough of the RCF to avoid a covenant test? Will they get a waiver if not? If they don't, it's Goodnight Vienna by as soon as the end of this month.

^capable *of* critical thinking

The market will immediately price in the offer, minus a small discount for the amount of time until the transaction completes (and it will complete, as 71% of shareholders have already indicated they are in favour). I would expect an open around 250-55 or so.

Personally I have mixed feelings. Always nice to get a decent payday, but on the other hand I *really* liked GLO for its high, predictable and inflation-proof yield. Ah well, time to shop around I guess.

There is, in my view, zero chance of survival even if the judgement is completely overturned (which it will almost certainly not be). CINE are on course to miss their base case of 85% of 2019 revenue by a country mile. They will breach the covenant on the RCF on June 30th and are currently desperately searching for cash to pay it off. Even if they succeed, the overall debt load is crushing and there simply isn't, and will not be, the cashflow to service that debt.

YTD US box office figures are approx 55% of 2019. The film slate is set to improve somewhat, but that must be balanced against the short term likelihood of recession and the long term structural decline of cinema. Forget the Cineplex judgement. There's no magic bullet here - this story ends in administration or massive D4E dilution.

Personally I have had a large short position for some time, so I do have an interest.

Spiderman was very good for CINE, in fact it was almost solely responsible for the still-below-base-case-but-not-dire Q4 2021 figures. To a lesser extent, the likes of Batman and Dr Strange have also performed well. The problem is that a few scattered hits are not enough to sustain cinema operators. There simply isn't the *depth* of high-grossing films that there has been in the past, and that will not change quickly enough (if at all) in time to save CINE from its massive debt burden. And that's of course leaving aside the small matter of the £700m owed to Cineplex.

Even if by some miracle CINE manages to completely overturn the judgement, its existing debt is far too high and the business is simply not producing enough cash to sustain it. Only a matter of time until administration or gigantic dilution.

CINE were pumping out (completely discretionary) trading updates when things appeared to be improving and there thus seemed a faint hope that they might meet their base case. If 2022 YTD revenue figures were anything close to the numbers required, you can bet that Mooky would be shouting it from the rooftops. The subsequent silence speaks volumes.

https://www.tharisa.com/pdf/investors/presentation/2022/tplc-karo-announcement-presentation-final.pdf

HC Wainwight is a boiler room who take money from anyone to promote garbage. They also facilitated the two obviously forward sold US based placings so they have already collected fat fees from EUA.

^screamingly *obvious* spoof.

The 'research' was all nonsense that merely served to sucker clueless PIs into blowing their pensions/savings on what was and is a screamingly spoof.

The Telegram rampers bear a large degree of responsibility here. Last I check there were something like 2500 people in the group, all being fed credible-seeming garbage and with all opposing views shut down.

I'm not saying the group organisers *knew* it the whole thing was a spoof, but they have played a large part in how so many have got sucked in and taken horrific losses.

That said, betting on a short term spike if Batman does well may not be *completely* mad. Just make sure to remember the overall med/long term situation.

You're right, CINE (probably) won't go bust. Current equity holders will, however, be diluted into obvilion via a bailout rights issue and debt for equity swap.

Closed my short at 6.75. Happy with that. Actual residual value is cash only, so sub 1p. Expect it will eventually trade there, but not for a while and I'm sure there will be more mini-spikes to come given the incredible ramping skill of the BoD and the incredible gullibility of the investor base.

What I'm not happy with is the fact that this collapse has been the result of a (horrific) external event and that the board and their enablers will certainly get away with what has been the most disgraceful spoof I've ever seen on AIM. The PIs who have suffered horrendous losses will not apportion blame where it actually lies and so will be susceptible to further disgraceful spoofs. Said spoofs are definitely on the way; people have been paying attention and learning from what EUA have been able to get away with.

Eg I can currently sell 80k shares for 155.71.

This generally means that there is a large buyer in the background.

No. LSE and others mark trades as buys or sells depending on the mid price. Anything that goes through above mid is marked as a buy, anything below a sell. For the last couple of days, actual RSP bid prices (ie what the MMs actually quote for a punter to sell their stock) have been above mid for 90% of the time. Therefore quite a few of what has been marked by LSE as buys have actually been sells.

Agreed. There will be no impact on operations from sanctions and no nationalisation of EUA's assets.

...because operations make a gross loss and are net liabilities and said 'assets' are worth nothing.

I'm short AMGO from 4.2 avg because med/long term the share price is *guaranteed* to be far lower than it is now.

Also, while I do have sympathy for the vast majority of EUA punters, anyone who supports or excuses this horrific war of aggression is completely despicable and thoroughly deserves to lose their money.

It has been entirely obvious for the last 2 years that EUA is massively, *massively* overvalued. Anyone with any knowledge of mining or markets knows that there never was a sale at anything close to the current mcap, let alone the fantasy valuations of the last 18 months or the delusions of some entirely worthless 'assets' being worth £billions.

This crisis has merely accelerated what was always going to happen.