Member Info for TheMadStork

This is *not* a 50/50 punt from this level.

There are only two outcomes:

1) NBP rejected at any stage by any stakeholder: SP = 0p

2) *Minimum* of 19 to 1 dilution, which will be done at a massive discount to current price. SP = 0.2 - 0.5p

Note that Dimtry is not a Director or an Officer of the company. Unclear whether or not he is covered by the RNS:

Https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/03010091/officers

How exactly will they be buying back shares when all the spare cash will be mandated to go to the compensation claims? Do you really think the court and the FCA will sanction cash effectively being transferred to shareholders when creditors are taking a big haircut?

This gets to the root of the delusion that afflicts most current shareholders: the current NBP proposes that existing shareholders are left with just 5% of any value. Any action that results in more than 5% of residual value accruing to holders will *not* be sanctioned. And 5% is the maximum possible. It's likely to be less. So the current share price, which therefore implies a £350m odd post NBP mcap, is simply far, *far* too high.

1) CINE is drowning in debt and -barring a miracle- will breach its covenants (no greater than 5x debt/EBITDA) when they are tested in June.

2)On top on this, the company is facing a £700m judgement, which they do not have the cash to pay and are extremely unlikely to be able to raise new debt for.

3)Cinema is *not* recovering strongly. Although Spiderman and James Bond helped in Q4 2021, CINE still didn't acheive 90% of 2019 revenues, and 2022 has started off terribly, with Jan at only 50% of 2019 and Feb started off similarly. Figures here:

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/quarter/to-date/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses

There are two possible outcomes from court + subsequent approvals by FCA/creditors/shareholders.

1)The SoA is not approved by any of the above. The company is then bust and the share price is 0p.
2)The SoA clears all those hurdles. The comany must then raise cash by issuing 19 new shares for every 1 existing share. The cash will then be used to pay compensation claims, leaving a bare balance sheet plus a discredited business and tarnished brand. The market is currently implying that that shell business would be capped at £400-500m. This is lunacy.

If the SoA passes then the long term price will be a tiny fraction of the current level. If it fails then it is game over. There is zero long term upside.

Holders should be asking themselves why the company keep using the weasel words ""as we successfully conclude our initial strategy" instead of "as we complete the transaction/asset sale". It is because this allows them to nudge-nudge wink-wink that a sale is still happening without explicitly saying so and therefore lying in an RNS. Even SP Angel will not llow them to get away with that.

I traded the stock in 2015, **4 years** before the mega bubble kicked off.

I have been short the stock since Dec 20, when the price was 40p, predicting that there would never be a sale and instead the company would raise as much cash as possible on the ramp. Since then the price has halved, there has not been a sale and the company have raised cash in two placings.

Might be finally dawning on some that there is no sale? Only took 28 months, zero bids, zero bidders, zero info on price and three placings to raise cash for some to begin to wonder? It remains utterly astonishing to me that anyone could possibly believe, or have believed that there would ever be a sale at anything close to the current mcap, but there we are. That's AIM punters for you.

Also anyone who is long SYME really shouldn't be allowed to invest their own money. It is an obvious fraud and I'm just sorry I neglected to short it when the price was higher.

Ah the old FOMO trade. Definitely works quite a lot of the time on AIM but I really think the easy money has been made here. It *could* spike higher pre court date, as PI gamblers try the old greater fool trick, but fundamentally the price cannot remain at anything like this level in the medium term and therefore it is a guaranteed short profit as long as you have plenty of margin for safety and a long enough view. I have both and therefore I am short from 4.6p avg.

I've opened a reasonable sized sell on Spreadex. Will add if it does spike higher, which it may well do. Anyone buying at this level is gambling on a greater fool trade though.

What route would that be? There are two options:

1) The scheme is rejected and the company goes bust
2) It is approved and the company dilutes by 95%, meaning that at present the market is saying that AMGO would be capped at around £500m post dilution. This seems completely ridiculous given that all the cash will have to go to pay compensation.

This is a nailed on, free money short from this level. It could spike higher of course, but eventually it will inevitably come back down to earth.

The Cineplex judgement is irrelevant here (although it definitely adds to the pain). CINE will breach its debt covenants in June and lenders will force a D4E swap, wiping out existing holders. That way everyone gets paid back. The judgement merely makes it 100% certain instead of 90%.

The article makes a fair point about the futility of Cineplex forcing Cineworld into bankruptcy given the senority of debt. However, I don't believe bankruptcy was ever on the table. What will happen instead is huge dilution to pay off creditors, with existing holders keeping around 5% of the enlarged company. Barring an absolute miracle (which, given the horrendous box office start to the year seems unlikely), this is going to happen by June.

CINE are running out of cash to pay the Regal shareholders settlement so they are trying to fob them off.

It's always the case on these ridiculous AIM junk bubbles that anyone questioning the narrative is roundly abused. When the naysayers are inevitably proved correct, very few punters will actually look back and reflect on their own actions, thus guaranteeing that they will make the same mistakes over and over.

AMC's project is objectively more valuable on every level than NKT, meaning that the latter is worth a tiny fraction of £100m on market.

EUA's 'assets' as a whole are worth no more than 2-3p/share and eventually they will have to fess up that there is no sale at anything close to the current mcap.

Here's the US figures:

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/to-date/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses

Funvestor:

It's of course true that one month in isolation means very little, but the overall trend speaks for itself given that CINE needs 90% of 2019 at a bare minimum:

Jul 21: 50%
Aug: 54%
Sep: 60%
Oct: 90%
Nov:56%
Dec: 88%
Jan 22: 50% (est)

These are disastrous figures when you consider that CINE needs to be trading at a debt:ebitda ratio of a max of 5:1 in order to maintain covenants. We shall see more on full year results but the figure for 2021 is more likely to be 10:1, which is plainly unsustainable, and the overall figures for Q1 22 are going to be similar.

CINE cannot maintain its existing level of debt and that is *before* the £700m judgement hanging over the company. D4E is absolutely nailed on in my view and exiting equity holders will be left with very little. There is too much debt and box office figures simply are not recovering at the pace they need to be in order for CINE to have any chance of repaying it, again *before* the Cineplex judgement is taken into account.

I stand corrected on the weekends thing: there are only 4 weekends counted in the '22 figures and it is true we haven't had the last one yet. Can't see that adding much though as there are no big releases. YoY vs 19 and 20 it is still the case that 22 is a massive disaster and far below what CINE needs. Debt covenant breach is absolutely nailed on.