RE: Smell the coffee6 Mar 2019 11:47
Well, we are in the land of speculation, so nothing can be called a no brainer.
NM is certainly playing his game to try and maximize the payday, however the fact that this fantastic offer we dream about has not materialized yet just indicates that there are still some critical milestones to reach before one or more majors decide to part with their own money to buy SOLG or ENSA or whichever part of the pie is agreed.
To that extent we could speculate that the PEA might be a catalyst, although we might need a PFS/DFS/BFS (we just don't know what will really titillate the majors), the acquisition of CGP might be a trigger of further M&A (but we don't really know in actual fact how much of an holdback the CGP situation really is), the arrival of one of the majors who has not shown their cards yet might be the catalyst to a bidding war (but we don't really know if the initial investment by Newcrest and BHP has pre-empted the opportunity for the others), the new mining law or the grant of the drilling permits might be the catalyst (but again we don't really have a measure of their relevance in the grand scheme of SOLG).
The only thing that seems clear-ish to me is that the share price describes a waiting game and the possibility of still too many outcomes, otherwise we would easily be priced higher.