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Not sure I am happy about JM's comment that in his view BHP might not get involved, and it's NC that is ultimately going to be the best candidate to develop the Cascabel project.

Based on past history across the industry and using the data from MRE2, at the exploration stage, use $0.05 per pound of Cu equivalent. That returns a theoretical valuation of 60.3p (so far we only achieved 47.8)
At the feasibility stage, use $0.08. That returns 96.4p
At the development stage, use $0.25. That returns 301.4p
At the the production stage, use $0.31. That returns 373.7p.

You might disagree with the exact numbers and use $0.03 or $0.04 to account for country risk or underground caving extraction. But irrespective, SOLG is due to re-rate as we progress towards feasibility and development, and we are still waiting for an updated resource.
We are in the least exciting phase at the moment, it might last a year or two and we are only a few months in, but in context the numbers indicate a significant potential for multi-bagging once we reach the next critical milestones.
I say we are fine.

Large New Copper-Gold-Silver-Molybdenum Porphyry System Discovered in the Cisne-Loja Project.
13th prospect!

Case Study: The Oyu Tolgoi Copper-Gold Discovery, Mongolia
So now that you know the theoretical value cycle of a mineral discovery, how does it pan out in reality? The Oyu Tolgoi copper deposit is one recent discovery that has gone through this value cycle. It exemplifies some of these events and their effects on the share price of a company.

Concept: 15+ Years
Prospectors conducted early exploration work in the 1980s near where Oyu Tolgoi would be discovered. It was not until 1996 that Australian miner BHP conducted further exploration.
But after 21 drill holes, the company lost interest and optioned the property to mining entrepreneur Robert Friedland and his company Ivanhoe Mines. At this point in 1999, shares in Ivanhoe were a gamble.

Pre-Discovery/Discovery: ~3 years
Ivanhoe Mines and BHP entered into an earn-in agreement, in which Ivanhoe gained ownership by completing work to explore Oyu Tolgoi. A year later, the first drill results came out of drill hole 150 with a headline result of 508 meters of 1.1 g/t Au and 0.8%. To get a sense of how large this is, imagine the height a 45-story building, of which a third of story is copper. This was just one intersection of an area that could stretch for miles.
Wild speculation began at this stage, as steadily improving drill results proved a massive copper-gold deposit in Mongolia and drove up the share price of Ivanhoe.

Feasibility/Orphan Period: ~2 years
In 2004, the drilling results contributed to the development of the first scoping study. This study offered a preliminary understanding of the project’s economics.
Using this study, the company needed to secure enough money to build a mine to extract the valuable ore. It was not until two years later, when Ivanhoe Mines entered into an agreement with major mining company Rio Tinto, that a production decision was finalized.

Development: 7 years
By 2006, the Oyu Tolgoi mineral deposit was in the development phase with the first shaft headframe, hoisting frame, and associated infrastructure completed. It took another two years for the shaft to reach a depth of 1,385 feet.
Further development work delineated a resource of 1.2 billion pounds of copper, 650,000 ounces of gold, and 3 million ounces of silver. This first stage of development for Oyu Tolgoi made Mongolia the world’s fastest growing economy from 2009 to 2011.

Startup/Production: Ongoing
On January 31, 2013, the company announced it had produced the first copper-gold concentrate from Oyu Tolgoi. Six months later, the company stated that it was processing up to 70,000 tonnes of ore daily.

Depletion: Into the Future
The Oyu Tolgoi deposit will last generations, so we have yet to see how this will affect the value of the mine from an investment perspective.

Concept
This stage carries the most risk which accounts for its low value. In the beginning, there is little knowledge of what actually lies beneath the Earth’s surface.
At this stage, geologists are putting to the test a theory about where metal deposits are. They will survey the land using geochemical and sampling techniques to improve the confidence of this theory. Once this is complete, they can move onto more extensive exploration.

Pre-Discovery
There is still plenty of risk, but this is where speculation hype begins. As the drill bit meets the ground, mineral exploration geologists develop their knowledge of what lies beneath the Earth’s crust to assess mineral potential.
Mineral exploration involves retrieving a cross-section (drill core) of the crust, and then analyzing it for mineral content. A drill core containing sufficient amounts of metals can encourage further exploration, which may lead to the discovery of a mineable deposit.

Discovery
Discovery is the reward stage for early speculators. Exploration has revealed that there is a significant amount of material to be mined, and it warrants further study to prove that mining would be feasible. Most speculators exit here, as the next stage creates a new set of risks, such as profitability, construction, and financing.

Feasibility
This is an important milestone for a mineral discovery. Studies conducted during this stage may demonstrate the deposit’s potential to become a profitable mine.
Institutional and strategic investors can then use these studies to evaluate whether they want to advance this project. Speculators often invest during this time, known as the “Orphan Period”, while uncertainty about the project lingers.

Development
Development is a rare moment, and most mineral deposits never make it to this stage. At this point, the company puts together a production plan for the mine.
First, they must secure funding and build an operational team. If a company can secure funding for development, investors can see the potential of revenue from mining. However, risks still persist in the form of construction, budget, and timelines.

Startup/Production
Investors who have held their investment until this point can pat themselves on the back—this is a rare moment for a mineral discovery. The company is now processing ore and generating revenue.
Investment analysts will re-rate this deposit, to help it attract more attention from institutional investors and the general public. Meanwhile, existing investors can choose to exit here or wait for potential increases in revenues and dividends.

Depletion
Nothing lasts forever, especially scarce mineral resources. Unless, there are more deposits nearby, most mines are eventually depleted. With it, so does the value of the company. Investors should be looking for an exit as operations wind down.

AKG, you forgot the part where WE are waiting.......

Rich, a bit of pain makes you appreciate the riches a bit more, just enjoy the rise.

!

We wish to sell, not sell cheap.
The environment is like the cards you are served at a game of poker and we cannot control that, how you then play determines your odds for winning. I just think that SOLG is playing it ok overall, which we may agree or disagree about.

Come on Earthling, if you were NM, teying to develop a business and a sellable resource while fending off majors who would buy us cheap, cgp who want to sell expensive, a rather unstable country, how would you play you cards, close to your chest or out in the open? I think Solg are being quite forthcoming, try and get responses from other CEOs like NM does. I think the company is fine but the environment around them is a challenge.

This applies to CGP. They are affected too. Since they have been trying to sell, perhaps the current sutation will make them more malleable.

Scrat, I like that, and I agree. Time will heal us.

I definitely agree that the trend looks south and does not show a sign of reversing yet (I use a fine tuned Super Trend calculation that is usually fairly accurate if I keep trading frequency low).
My other indicators point south too, even Hurst suggested the next trough was going to be lower than 20p but I ignored it, just the RSI suggests it's time to buy, in my own spreadsheet at least.
Agreed, we are in the fk knows range!

@Bottmzup, since we have broken the Aug 18 bottom, if you had to set up a Fib retracement, how would you do it them, what range would you use? I am sure we would all benefit from you wisdom in these matters.

Columbo, that's just an emotional statement. Unless there is a coup and all private ownership of Solg's asses is taken away by the State, the fundamentals remain the same. The last few months have highlighted how much Ecuador still poses a political risk that has inevitably been priced in, but everything else is exactly how it was before and how we have always understood it. Once the crowds calm down, we will all chill out. Rather, we need news about the funding, the cash is not much at this point and given the burn rate.

Things were difficult enough as they were, and now civil unrest in Ecuador?

Novice, don't jinx it, it's bad enough as it is.

We are talking about geology, and in geological terms "imminent" could be many years!

Cookie, we haven't been out for a long time!

After looking at NM delivering the interview, he definitely seems more chilled than the rest of us!