Member Info for thegame316

Ive filtered that t$at now so don't have to suffer his gibberish delusional posts now. Ive come across many posters who think they are the Warren Buffet of LSE but this guy takes the biscuit. Doesn't back anything he says with any financial or business acumen but thinks he's the equivalent of Ronaldo compared to pub footballers. People like him cant be debated with. What a tool

Id rather be out of the game then have an inferiority complex. But I am better than you so I'm just going to ignore you. You don't have an investing acumen so are not worth my time

Current price is a steal. People are forgetting in this current climate that half of RR's revenue and most of their profits are from business's that are largely immune to COVID pressures. Just the defence part has over £3bn revenue and over £400M operating profit and has per the last update this has not been affected by COVID at all. Governments will always spend money on their military. Power systems has only had a small decrease but that is improving as well especially as Chinese economy rebounds.
Current mcap is just over £3bn BUT should be around £6-8bn just on Defence and PS. Rolls Royce isn't too big to go under but it is too important to go under. This is highly unlikely though as 50% of last years revenue is still there and from the remaining 50% they should still get 20% from that this year so they still have around £10bn of revenue a year.
The current downturn is due to uncertainty regarding funding. People have looked at IAG and are assuming the worst but this is equivalent to comparing apples with oranges. IAG has only one market which is air travel and that too is limited to UK and Spain. RR has Defence, Power Systems and Civil aerospace. More importantly its aerospace business is not limited to any one country. It is a worldwide business with major customers in Asia Pacific, North America, the Middle East and Europe.
The Power by the Hour model used is actually a good system in place. Airlines around the world are ramping up the number of flights. Pre-covid average utilization was around 10-13 hours a day. Currently around 20% of airliners are grounded and the rest are averaging around 6-8 hours a day. Based on this RR should be getting close to 50% of last years service revenue This is a significant decrease but its a marked improvement from april and these numbers will only go up.
The target for air travel is 70% of 2019 levels by 2021 to avoid further funding. At current rate of increase this is doable. This is why I think RR have said there has been no final decision regarding an equity raise. They are most likely waiting to see if the current momentum can be sustained. If it can then no funding will be required.

Current price is a steal. People are forgetting in this current climate that half of RR's revenue and most of their profits are from business's that are largely immune to COVID pressures. Just the defence part has over £3bn revenue and over £400M operating profit and has per the last update this has not been affected by COVID at all. Governments will always spend money on their military. Power systems has only had a small decrease but that is improving as well especially as

UK lockdown will not have a major effect on NEX even though the chances of one are remote. That is a small part of its business. USA, Spain and Morocco is where they mostly earn their bread and butter and from todays update its looking very rosy. Onwards and upwards from here. Should hit £2 before the end of the year if not a lot sooner. Long term this has got a target of £4 IMHO.

The results were as expected. The key thing is that even with being closed for 4 out of 6 months CINE still managed just over $50m EBIDTA and only $1.3M cash outflow from operations. I was expecting it to be worst.
As a responsible company CINE have to make sure they be upfront with any potential risks regardless of unlikely it is. Bottom line is that over 75% of the estate is open and generating cash. December covenants are based on pre IFRS 16 so rolling 12 month EBIDTA needs to be around $400m which is acheievable.
There will be no second nationwide lockdown for either the US or the UK. The economic damage would be too great. Plus the daily deaths are a fraction of what they were in march/april. As long as daily deaths are below 50 in U.K. and 1000 in USA then there is nothing to worry about.

can people stop pushing their shares on this board- if you had followed andy's advice and brought GDR at 150p and GGP at 27p you would be in a similar position or worse then buying into RR AT £2 but will less upside. Please keep the ramping to that shares board instead of peddling it elsewhere

aa111- I've recommended your post even though I am one of the ones you are talking about, Fair enough you have got a point. I'm just going to ignore what is being said by certain posters and just focus on discussing RR.
Hopefully today will be a blue day. With the 2 week mini lockdown in place covid cases should start to fall next week. If it can get to under 1k per day after 2 weeks then this should push the sp up. I still say the current price is a joke. The uncertainty regarding funding is having a negative effect. Once this is addressed the rerate will begin. The timing could actually be perfect as the rumour is news will come in early october just as the 2 week mini lockdown will end

I think he wants everyone to bow down to his brilliance thats why he is getting so angry. We should just humour the simpleton. I don't think he would get the difference.

Just ignore him. He clearly has an Inferiority complex. They guy actually thinks he is worth 30 posters and can't comprehend that people who read what he posts can see right through his charade. If he was as good as he thinks he is, he would be on other boards telling people how much he has made on that share but all he does is spout nonsense. Worst thing is he will actually read this but will think its sour grapes because he is always right lol but the fact is the opposite. The guy hasn't got a clue and is just getting it right because we are in a bear market not because he is an astute investor

if a rights issue were to exclusively happen then the news that has been officially released would have said this. Instead we have been told there is a range of funding options which may or may not include a rights issue. Personally I feel it will be a Sovereign Fund taking a small stake of around 15%. Rolls Royce is a world wide brand that is attractive to any rich investor.

Chinese air travel is back to normal and according to Flighttracker near enough 98% of all major Chinese airlines are being utilized with significant flying hours per day with the the vast majority doing an average of over 8 hours per day. Now just read the first few lines of the following linked articles-

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201911/06/WS5dc263eca310cf3e35575c4c.html#:~:text=China%20Southern%20Airlines%2C%20the%20largest,purchase%20engine%20total%20care%20service.

https://www.csair.com/au/en/about/news/news/2016/1b0i389fqm37u.shtml

https://www.flightglobal.com/china-southern-selects-rolls-royce-for-a380-engines/64401.article

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201811/06/WS5be14dcca310eff303286ea8.html

https://cbi.typepad.com/china_direct/2018/11/rolls-royce-flying-high-with-china-eastern-deal.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/mar/30/rolls-royce-signs-1bn-engine-deal-with-air-china

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/BUSINESS/11/22/rolls.royce.china.contract/index.html

https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/press-releases/2015/pr-21-10-2015-rr-signs-agreement-with-hna-group.aspx

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/article-view/release/73169/rolls-wins-$500m-chinese-order-for-erj-145-engines.html

All these planes are in the air and are bringing in millions in revenue every day. The situation as bleak as some would have you believe.

Nothing more than a rumour. The same article also states the RR is not in need of immediate funding but no is mentioning that as that does not serve their purpose of trying to paint a bleak picture. Fact is RR has over £6bn liquidity and as long as air travel gets to the 70% pre covid level by 2021 then there will be no need to raise funds. Current air travel is around the 55-60% mark so within target of that.
It's clear that RR do not want to go down this route and are anticipating further growth in jet use. The sp will bounce back soon as the current value does not take into account the 2 profitable parts of the business that are still generating positive cash flow.
One thing I have realised from the covid situation is that covid cases peak really quick and then fall rapidly. This will happen this time round as well with the only difference being the peak will be smaller so will be a lot quicker to get back to less than 500 cases per day.

This will come good. one of the things I looked at before taking the plunge was how the business was before covid and it was doing really well. People are saying air travel won't recover for years but the moment covid is over or starts fading away then there will be an explosion in air travel. With low oil prices for the NEX the 2 or 3 years airlines will be able to offer cheap air fares. Plus one thing that this pandemic has shown is that if there is an activity that's people like to do which is then curtailed or if it is not safe to do,when that is lifted there is a lot of pent up demand unleashed. It has been proven in pubs, restaurants, retail and it will also be the same for air travel. Before the pandemic air travel was growing 3-5% a year. Those people that brought the plane tickets are still around. This is just one of those situations where patience is a virtue. In 6 months time we willl be wondering what the fuss was about

And it has sales of around 900m and operating profit of just over £100m. So what would the defence and power systems business's be worth. They both have revenues of over £3bn each and operating profit of over £400m and £350m respectively. They are at least £1 per share each. As long as these 2 sections are running as before then there will be a rally in the sp soon. People are getting fixated on the civil aerospace part but are forgetting that is only half the revenue. More importantly over 90% of last years profit was from defence and PS.
The next few days will be tough especially with the Ronaldo of the investing world givIng his wonderful insight by regurgitating common news but us holders will just have to bear. I suppose it will just make the subsequent rise that much more sweeter.

No point conversing with someone with such an high opinion of themselves. I know won't make a difference to your mind because you are one of those insufferable people but you don't bring anywhere near the knowledge that you think you do. The fact you think you are equal to 30 poster says it all. You're just a person in a bear market saying it will go down. That doesn't require any insight or skill. But I will leave you alone in your fantasy. It must feel so great to see yoursef as this brilliant financially astute wise. I honestly and truly wish I had the same delusions.

@ Toff -Just to liven things up do u want to place a wager. If it's a blue day
tomorrow then you agree not to post on this board for a month and if it's red then the same applies to me. Also to keep it civil there is to be no gloating/taunting/insults or anything personal against the losing person at the end. We've both made our points on this board and it's there in the chat history for all to read so there is nothing to lose for both of us apart from our need to constantly give our views wherever it's negative or positive.
For that matter any negative poster who wants to take up this wager please let it be known. EIther tomorrow it will go down and I'll switch off for a month or there will be one less negative person on this forum. If you are certain that you are never wrong as you have said in a previous post the you will have no problem accepting this.

Todays drop in sp is mostly due to the knee jerk reaction to the chance of a mini uk lockdown. UK based airlines like IAG, RYA etc have fallen as they will be financially affected but for RR the UK is a small insignificant market. Their engines are used worldwide especially in Europe, North America, Middle East and Asia Pacific. These markets have not deteriorated and are in fact gradually improving.
According to Flighttracker over 90% of the A350's are flying and many of them are clocking in over 50 hours of fly time a week. As well as this the 777's and 787's as well as the A330'and A340's are also being used extensively. Regional flying is also robust with the ERJ aircraft. The only one not being used is the A380 but this is only a few hundred engines out of thousands.
Worldwide travel is around the 55-60% level compared to 2019. This is much better than april when it was less then 10%. At that time RR price crashed to 250p level so the current price is not reflective of current market.
I know there is the issue of raising equity that is weighing down the sp but as the official rns said a rights issue is just one of the options being looked at and more importantly no decision has been made. If the rumours are to be believed then we will know by early october and until then its anyone's guess.
The only thing I am concerned with is worldwide air travel. We all know that RR gets paid or each hour a plane is in the air. In 2019 financial year RR had about £15bn revenue of which about £5bn was from civil aerospace service revenue. Taking into account 2 months of near enough zero revenue and the rest at around 50% of last year then for 2020 financial year they should get between £2bn-3bn revenue. There will also be a reduction in engine sale revenues but as these are normally sold at cost this reduction wont affect operating profit as much as services reduction.
Bottom line is the sp should be around half of pre-covid price which is £3+ based on current air travel. Personally am not worried as i am in this for the medium term (3-6 months) as by then this pandemic will be over and we will all look back and laugh at the hysteria of today

if it was going to be a heavily discounted placing then there would be no need to have discussions with sovereign funds. Simply do what IAG have done and offer sub rights to existing investors. The fact that a sovereign fund is involved most likely means little to no dilution and no heavily discounted placing.
Monday will be interesting. If the market takes the news as a positive step towards improving the balance sheet then a 10%+ rise is conceivable. And if £2 is breached then £2.50 is a realistic target for the end of the week.
I just hope the shorters get burnt.

The raise will lead to sp correction. Can see this hitting £3+ by end of October. Estimated cash outflow for second half of the year is around £1bn. With the £2.5bn raise it gives RR liquidity of around £8.6bn so its future is secure. Especially with the recent layoffs announced. I know someone who is an engineer at the Derby plant. According to him you can break down the engineers on the shop floor into 2 groups . Those who know what they are doing and have the specialist knowledge that is hard to get and the second are the ones who were lucky they even managed to get hired and have to be told what to do 90% of the time as they don't know squat and have to have most of their work double checked before it can be signed off. Hopefully people from the latter have been laid off leaving the valuable workers to get on with doing the job.