Member Info for thegame316

The problem with getting a correct value for ACP is that there are no other graphite producers on AIM or the main market that ACP can be compared to. If this was an Australian company then the mcap right now would be at least £25M as it would be compared to Blackrock who are currently worth £34M. Blackrock have a mining license but other than that they are at a similar stage.
If you compare the key metrics then ACP have a much more financially sound proposal then Blackrock. The initial capex for Blackrock is $116M compared to $39M for ACP. The FOB production costs for Blackrock is $494 per tonne compared to $369 for ACP. The IRR for Blackrock is 44.8% compared to 91% for ACP.
More importantly only 25% of ACP's resource has been explored so there is potentially a lot more graphite then what has been currently identified. Another key fact is that ACP have a higher TGC % then Blackrock's. We have an average of 9.8% TGC compared to 7.8%.
This is where the key value is. With graphite its all about the purity. There is a massive difference between graphite that is at 94% purity then 97% purity and again a bigger difference between 97% and 99%. It is much easier and cheaper to get 99% graphite when the starting material is over 9% as there are fewer steps required in the purification process. This graphite is also highly sought after by the battery makers so will command a premium over the average graphite price.
If Blackrock is worth £34M after getting the mining license then ACP should be around the £50M mark once they get theirs. If it wasn't for the seller (who hopefully has finished off loading) then then current sp would be at least double.
Just need to wait for next week. Im hoping for smaller consistent rises then a massive spike. Anything over 10% a day will be great.

Todays big sell at the end of the day was a specific amount of 907.5k shares when on other previous days it has been 500k, 1m or even 2m shares. Who ever the seller or sellers are they must only have a certain amount of shares to off load so it could be this was the last few shares left as there have been chunky sells on quite a few days over the last few weeks which in total are in the tens of millions.
Maybe I'm overthinking it but it could be that this was the last few shares left to sell hence it was not a rounded up number of shares. Yesterday there was a 1m sell that showed up after trading but today it was only 907.4k even though there was more volume today so no reason for it to be another 1m unless the seller didn't have a million shares left.
Next week will be exciting though. There are 3 different types of news that can lead to a re-rate. The first is the mining license, there is also the lab testing result from Australia and finally the big one which news on mine financing.
Mcap should be in the £50M region once news starts filtering through which makes it 10p a share. The first set of news should see the share get to 6-8p and then subsequent updates will lead to more rises.

Ive been researching graphite the last few days. World demand is currently around 1.2M tonnes a year and is projected to go up annualy around 5-9% Thats an extra 60k to 100k tonnes per year additional graphite.
Currently graphite is over supplied in the market due to Syrah Resources and their huge mine in Mozambique but this will not last. By 2023 the market will be in severe deficit if new mines are not started up and considering it takes a year at least to construct a mine, ACP is in an ideal position to profit once graphite prices recover.
It takes 1000 tonnes of graphite to produce 1Twh battery. So a factory making 100 Twh batteries per year will need 100k tonnes of graphite a year. Just need to look at the Tesla Giga factories springing up and you will see that graphite demand will explode in the next year or so along with graphite prices.

Looks like the seller has cleared as well. Only 2 sells todays and in total less than £500. The rest of the trades have been buys. L2 is looking really good as well. Only 1 MM on the ask at 3.8 and then its another tick up.
This will finish over 4p at days end at the current rate.

Actually ACP has a better mine than Blackrocks. Their TGC grade is around 7.8% while we have over 9% TGC. With graphite its all about the purity and the quality of the flakes. Its not a case of one size fits all. Mahenge project will produce graphite that is perfectly suited for lithium batteries so will be in massive demand.
Cant wait for next week, anything under 5p is a bargain at the moment

Blackrock has a neighbouring mine which is similar in size to ACP's. They have got a mining license but have not started mine construction yet. They are currently valued at £34M. So as an indicator once ACP gets the mining license granted the sp should be at least 6p.

Its not just the announcements its also the fact that they will be fast tracked. Before the end of the year people will start getting the vaccine shots. Once this news is confirmed the real re-rate will begin. We already have 2 vaccines and the 3rd is on its way. One or all of these will be available in December and that is a minimum of 13 days away.
The sp will start to rise before then in anticipation but that is just my own view

Did anyone buy into 88e or RMS based on yesterdays "tips". Both are heavily down today. One had a director off loading a million quids worth of stock and the other announced a massive placing at a 25% discount.
Sometimes I wonder if there are people that are paid to pump these stocks on other boards. Sounds a bit far fetched but does seem strange.

Vaccine news normally is around midday so is risky to wait. May even come today but doubt it. Either way its too risky for me to be on the side lines but we all have our own strategy.

That is a massive indication that the major players think the sp will start to recover lost ground. Wouldn't be surprised if the shorters flip and start going long now. Everyone is now waiting for the Astrazeneca news which should be in the coming days. Exciting times lay ahead.
The world needs to get over this pandemic. All this talk of having to live with this for years was scare mongering by a select few. Just a few more weeks and the first batch of people will start being vaccinated and then normality will follow.

Im not saying £3 is a true value of what the company is worth in the medium term, I'm just saying the market can be irrational both on the way up and on the way down. A few weeks ago the sp hit £2.50 after the funding news. It fell back obviously but the fact is it did hit that price.
So there is a chance something similar can happen again. But the main point all of us bar a few can agree on is that there is plenty of upside to the current price.

We are now at the stage where vaccines will be rolled out in a matter of weeks. A few months ago this seemed like a remote possibility but now the situation is highly likely. Everyone has seen the affect on the sp when vaccine news is released. Now just imagine in a few days when news comes confirming the actual date when the vaccine will be rolled out.
The market will explode especially stocks like RR that have a lot of upside at these levels. We might even see £3 a share if buying pressure is too high. The stock marker is irrational both when it goes down and when it goes up so anything is possible.
For me its a hold and wait for the good news.

Level 2 Orderbook looks really strong. As long as the sp holds up over £1 then the rest of the week will be good. Further positive vaccine news will easily get the sp over £1.50 at the least. May even get to £1.75-£2 by the end of the month.

37.5m shares is less than 5% of the total warrants. Surely more would have been exercised if there was little expectation of the sp rising further. The sp will go much higher once drilling results from Hope are announced

There were no abusive posts during the weekend, certainly not from me. All I wanted was a discussion on why the vast majority of the warrants from 0.16 have not been exercised yet. For me this is a clear indicator that the sp still has further to go.
Gold is in a bull market at present and BZT are most likely going to release an rns stating that there is a lot more gold than previously thought at the Hope project. The fact that that an experienced geologist has now joined the board only adds to the positivity here.
We are extremely undervalued at the moment but this will be corrected soon.

Just need to keep patient. Have a look at the recent chart for BZT. It hit 0.2 and people then were saying it was a spike. The sp went down to around 0.16/17 for a few days and then exploded. Same will happen again. Just need to remember that there will be an rns in the next few days/weeks giving drill results on Hope.
If as expected it is announced that there is more gold there then the sp will rerate. I've confident in this share so am prepared to wait this out. News will come sooner or later, drilling started on 1st October so should be close to finishing now.

To all the doomsayers I've got a simple question. Why are over 90% of the warrants still outstanding at 0.16. There was plenty of time, plenty of profit and certainly enough volume over the last 2 weeks for them to be exercised and for the warrant holders to make a decent profit. AFAIK there were no restrictions as a small minority of the warrants have been exercised but the vast majority are it seems waiting for a higher price before taking up the option.
Perhaps they are averse to making money. Or perhaps maybe they know that once drilling at the Hope project is concluded that they will make a heck of a lot more than the 100-150% profit they could have achieved a week ago.
BZT due news any day now regarding Hope. If news does come in that there is loads of gold as well as the high grades of copper than 1p will easily be smashed. It will just be a case of high the sp will go.

UFO brought their assets for a low six figure amount with a few shares thrown in a while back. Look at what happened to their sp when they announced the results of their drilling programme.
I dont get this argument. There has to be incentive for the miner to start drilling and prove up the resource. That is how this industry works. I could go through AIM and find at least a dozen miners that have brought a mining license for a few hundred k and then ended up with a mcap in the tens of millions once they have proved up the resource.
It is good to be cynical. But not so much that it clouds your vision on the basic fundamentals of how the junior mining sector operates

The extra £22-27m would come from increasing the JORC resource on the Hope project. The rns clearly states there is likely to be a significant increase especially in gold resources once the current drilling ends which started on 1st October so should be over in the next few weeks.

It also amazes me when people post negative comments and also claim to be holding shares. Surely if its that bad an investment than just cut your losses and try elsewhere. We have all been in that position tbh, its how you deal with it that matters. Life is too short to be that negative.
Getting back to BZT, I do want to start a debate on why over 90% of the warrants have not been executed yet. With the trading volume over the last few weeks there was ample opportunity for the investors who had these warrants to convert them at 0.16 and make a tidy profit. Those warrants would easily have been absorbed on the recent rise into the 0.4's.
I think it s an indication of what the future holds. Those that hold the warrants are most likely more informed than the average investor and the fact that only around 90m have been exercised shows that most who hold those warrants are waiting for a much higher price before converting. This is something that I would really like one of the more cynical posters to answer. We are all here to discuss BZT so lets do that.