focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Funding is the Big one, can Nav pull it off 🤔.
Its a big ask for a company of Nav's size but they appear outwardly confident inspite of being refused UK backed bonds.
Once funding is secured- FID becomes a mere formality, so this is, for me, by far the issue of most importance as it makes or breaks the project.
As we know, many banks won't lend because of the disputed waters issue and a number don't fund oil projects any longer but there are banks & Instuitions that will still fund oil projects so its these that Nav will turn to, likely mostly in Israel, for funding alongside some bond issues.
The improved project economics look extremely robust at current prices which should be a big plus for any lenders and Nav may also seek a partner (Delek) to mitigate the risk if terms can be agreed. This would be a prudent move as opening a new Billion barrel basin is a big ask for two companies of Nav's/Rkh's size & resources but I do think/hope they can pull it off and I eagerly await funding news-which should come before FID.
Dodge; You will only see bigger sales when we get some tangible news, like Funding ,FID & OM.
These are the 3 main catalysts that should drive the sp north in the second half of the year.
At £83mln, Rkh is arguably, fairly valued at this moment in time,considering there is no SL Funding/FID or decision on the OM appeal.
When there is the shares will rise accordingly on each piece of news.
The shares have performed reasonably well since the fund raise. They're up almost 100% and the warrants are in the money by 40%.
So I don't expect any significant moves until we have significant news.
Personally, I would rather the sp slides down unitl we get big news so I can continue accumalating @ cheaper prices but my accumulation will continue regardless of cheaper or dearer prices - right up to the first big rns.
The oilprice is looking good and we can expect funding 'before' FID,also an FPSO LOI could land anytime as could a partner (Delek),so its just a matter of waiting for the first big piece of the puzzle to land, which should kick start, what should be a protracted ascent north on the 3 main catalysts in 2024/ or early 25.
Also the board have made prudent decisions on OM, striking a £100mln cash deal on conclusion was good business at this moment in time.
Critism is ok but it has to be factual & balanced so statements like ' Premier was a poor choice', just aren't true !
Premier wasn't a poor choice, it was the only choice !!
Rkh contacted 100 companies and got 1 reply and that was Premier so let's put that often stated myth to bed.
Premier was the only option due to SL being in disputed waters.
Sam's played a blinder getting Navitas on board and retaining 35% since Harbour bailed.
We were dead & buried when they bailed and now a few years on, we're on the verge of FID, so credit where credits due 👏
Publican is right, it's already happened, 97% is lost, what's another 1 or 2% loss on any finance deal ?
Publican is clearly deriving immense pleasure from this catastrophe and cannot gloat enough on our demise as his postings clearly demonstrate.
Well, at least this disaster has brought pleasure & purpose to one person so enjoy your time at the top Publican and carry on preaching and gloating to holders here that have lost 97% of their investment (soon to be 99.9).
Maybe after this you can derive pleasure from something morally better than private investors being wiped out but I doubt it as you are 100% in your element here and totally addicted to the complete & total demise of hzm shareholders.
And don't respond with yr nonsense about this being some kind of experiment or that you are only devoting your time to advise shareholders on the perils of investing blah blah blah...just continue Gloating until yr hearts content, which seems to be never as you are relentless in your depraved & warped mission here.
Everyone complains about Godders moaning and attention seeking but you are all feeding the baby by responding to his sad pathetic ramblings.
Ignore the fool and he will, in time give up his pathetic posts. Its that simple.
The Fool has nothing to contribute, ignore every post he makes and the board will be better for it.
Simples.
I agree, rns's should start landing Q2/3 if FID is Q4.
There could be a fair number of significant rns's from now to the end of the year and they should have a considerable effect on the sp.
OM alone is worth the current mkt cp so the 150mln barrels from SL are, at this time, thrown in for nothing,although this will change once funding & fid are announced.
So I continue quietly accumalating more Rkh shares throughout this quiet period as once the big rns's start landing, these low prices will be long gone & rkh shares will be sought after & actively traded. Volumes will increase and some IIs will take positions alongside the many new retail investors that funding & fid will bring.
Producing oil from the Falklands is going to be big news around the world, its a whole new basin opening & further lucrative opportunities will arise once the cash rolls in from SL.
Of course, there's risk, there always is but I'm betting Navitas can pull this off and that the OM award will not be revoked by the panel.
This is most interesting🤔
What deal do they have lined up PageofCups?
I was unaware they had a deal lined up ....What's the terms, just, I can't see anything in the rns ?
Thanks in advance !
Bor will no doubt be highly geared to events at SL and may even outperform rkh but this year is Rocky's as they should be getting the real news (Funding/FID & OM)- whilst Bor will likely only be rising on the back of events @ SL.
I would say holding both is fine, although maybe 80/20 to Rkh but my preference is 100% rkh and I currently hold no Bor but all Falkland Oilies will rise as the prospects of the new basin opening increases.
As for news....FPSO LOI and/or possible other long lead items/ Funding/OM & FID.
No guarantee that's the order and it doesn't really matter as long as they land but that's the order I anticipate.
Once things start moving, these low prices will be history and many will have wished they got more in the quieter periods so now is our time to load up as best we can before the herd arrive.
Opening a new basin in the Falklands is going to be big news and we will have lots of new shareholders- resulting in higher shareprices !
Aggneiessearner; I have no comments on the tax guidance issue, all my Amur shares were held in an ISA so the subject has no revelence or interest to me. Sorry I cannot be of any assistance in the matter.
TItanic Shipyard to win £120 mln contract to build new Falklands Port !
(Telegraph)
Agniessearner; I'm merely pointing out what the likely outcome will be if holders vote against the proposal. Personally, I don't care if holders vote for/against or not at all as my remaining investment here is no longer significant.
I expect few will even bother voting on the proposal regardless of what it is but its important that holders thinking they will automatically get the remaining cash in dividend format may be disappointed , as once they delist, there may be no opportunity for holders to monetize what's left of their investment for years.
One could reasonably expect the pharmaceutical company to have a mkt cp higher than its cash,this is, of course, in no way guaranteed but is likely so the shares can then be cashed in for a higher than cash price once the listing is back on the market.
I don't see the point in refusing the offer without considering it as some here intend as the outcome is then in no way certain and I may have my capital frozen for potentially years as it dwindles down in value whist they spend it seeking other opportunities.
If RY states in the prospectus rns that if the proposal is rejected they will pay the remaining cash as a dividend then I understand some may find this attractive but I very much doubt this will be the case.
He will simply delist and seek other opportunities, taking as long as he possibly can on each proposal.
That's why I think the best way to realise your cash here may be to go along with the offer ( providing it has some attraction that the market
will like) and then sell at a hopefully higher than cash price once listed but its up to each individual to make their own decision on what is best for their own personal circumstances.
mining is on its ****, nickel & other metals have all crashed so until the cycle turns again there's little point speculating in them.
therefore i can see why ry has not chosen to go down this long depressing road again.
sure,pharmaceuticals are equally as high risk and always a long shot but as i say this proposal may offer the best option to monetize whats left of our investment if the market likes the story.
ry will not be drawing salary on this so he only
gains if the asset increases in value so one could argue ry will, for once, be aligned with shareholders....or so it seems !
As I said, Those automatically voting against the proposal will not automatically get the remaining cash.
If the proposal is rejected, I fully expect them to delist and seek other opportunities whilst squandering the remaining cash, they can stay delisted for years.
So holders who want to see some return need to give careful consideration as once the delist, there 's no certainty at all that you will ever get any capital back.
Let's see what the prospectus is and then decide.
Refusing the offer outright without consideration may not be the best option as companies can remain delisted for years- so serious consideration should be given to any offer as there's no guarantee they will payout the remainder even though this was stated in an earlier rns.
The new company may catch the markets attention early on when it comes to market and this may allow those wanting out, to cash in at a better price than current cash, and as I said, there's no guarantee of getting the current cash if the offer is refused as they can remain delisted for years and look for other opportunities whilst squandering the remain cash, so the offer is worth serious consideration.
Mogger ; Navitas are indeed going for a 'Redeployed' FPSO and it will need a 'refurb' of some kind as they are all bespoke, it may be a few months or it may be a year or more, no one knows
until Navitas give us the details.
The first part of the FPSO process is a LOI,full contracts can be expected to be signed around a year later, then the refurb can begin.
So let's say the LOI lands tomorrow, then full FPSO leasing contract signed March 25, refurb, 6 to 12 months, say March 26, then 4/6months to deploy, this gives first oil Q3/Q4 26, so its certainly still possible and on schedule, although there are many unknown variables like Finance,FID, Drillships/FPSO lead times ect.
So I would expect FPSO LOI news anytime now based on the stated Navitas time schedule and known process of Fpso leasing ( LOI/Full Leasing Contract/Refurb/Deployment) which comes in at around 2.5 to 3 years from now, bear in mind we are not even at the LOI stage yet.
Alma, I do not think anything myself on the chosen FPSO refurb for SL, I merely quote industry sources , who state refurbs to be of up to 1/2 years in duration.
Naturally, each case is unique and its impossible for us to guess the returb time so I can only go off industry sources until Navitas state the SL FPSO refurb time schedule.
I was kind of anticipating the Delek group to come on board -which would've been a big help for the project but no deals been struck with them yet, yes, there's still time but maybe their not interested and it's just wishful on my behalf.
Can't see any other company being interested so it looks like it could be just Navitas & Rocky opening this 550mb basin.
Oscar, 2 years from FID to production was always going to be tight when FPSO refits can take 1 plus years with another 4/6months to deploy.Also it's not uncommon for refits to overrun on both time and costs.
So production 26 is possible yes but equally not possible with all the unknowns. I'm not very disappointed as I anticipated the probability of delays was as equally possible as being on time bearing in mind the significant challenges of opening a new basin in harsh conditions without
any infrastructure & funding a project of this size for a modest sized debt laden company like Navitas.
I do believe they can pull this off but there are serious challenges to be overcome before we can raise a glass to production.
Regulars will recall me often stating that its going to be difficult to keep the stated timeline without announcing an FPSO contract first because of the long lead time required for the refit.
That's why I said provisional FPSO contract news could/should be next if they are serious about keeping the 2026 production date .
These FPSO contracts are extremely complex instruments and take around a year to complete.
Navitas have been searching for an FPSO for well over a year now and will no doubt be in advanced talks but the provider may require Finance & FID before signing up and only then can the refurb begin, which,we can expect, to be 'at least '1 year.
Then another 4/6 months to deploy.
So production 26 is still possible if FIDs in 24 (depending on FPSO refurb ) but it can just as easily overrun as be on time.
On the plus side, delays at this point are not painful as the sp does not reflect any meaningful value to the project and the project has not been financed or sanctioned so there is little concern about unknown delays at this point in time when the sp's pretty much already rock bottom - considering there's a 96% chance they will get £80mln cash later this year and the current market value is £75mln.
As long as we get FID this year,its all good, but even if its Q1 25, that's still good in the bigger picture.
I'd take SL Finance & OM this year & FID Q1 25.
What's another year when SLs been waiting for over 10. The main thing is that it happens !