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My understanding is that FIG do have a say in any cash rkh receives as we know they are not allowed to do what they want with the OM award,for example, we know FIG have stipulated no dividend or payment to shareholders is allowed and whilst we don't know what else is allowed or not allowed by FIG, they clearly have some prior agreement on any cash Rkh get from OM or anywhere else.
The detailed terms, we don't know but we do know FIG stated that non of the OM award can be paid out to shareholders until the tax issue on the Pmo farm out is resolved and If none of this was applicable then Rkh would not need FIG to sign off OM.
It may not be as odd as it seems SH, Am I right in saying Rkh owe FIG tax money the agreement with FIG posiibly states that if & when Rkh receive any cash (OM) then the tax bill becomes due, so I imagine rkh will be negotiating with FIG - stating that most of this cash will be used to help fund rkh's share of SL and can FIG wait until production for their tax...but on production rkh must pay back Nav loan first, so FIG will be protecting their own interests on this and that's why negotiations are ongoing.
2 aim biotech firms looking to delist from aim and go private as there's no interest in the shares and the valuations are low ......and Young wants to bring a new one to market 🤔 Why on earth he desires to go down this road only he knows.
Yes, I had a punt there at 18p after it had fallen from £1.60. Then averaged down at 2p.
It's perfectly normal to lose 80/90 or 100% on aim so expected.
Aim is just like betting on a horse at 10/1, you don't really expect to win but you fancy a flutter.
Oh, it seems my post about HZMs difficulty in funding the remainder of its 1st quartile, Tier 1 Brazillian asset has disappeared 🤔
Yes TNM, I did indeed (unintentionally) press the 0 button twice on my mobile whilst typing that message. It's easy done on a mobile,although I did correct it for the next post when mentioning Ithaca.
I hope it didn't cause you too much distress and trust you will accept my apologies for pressing the 0 button twice 👍
Have to say, the sale is looking less likely as time goes on, they had hoped to conclude a sale by the end of 23, then Q1 24, so there are clearly stumbling blocks that cannot be overcome.
These stumbling blocks will be valuation, buyers will want it very cheap and Eua obviously do not accept the price.
I expect sale negotiations to have ended now and they are likely looking again for another suitor but they won't exactly be queing up.
Of course, I could be wrong and an offer may land tomorrow but if you look at the length of time they have been trying to sell the assets without receiving a single offer then it's difficult to be positive that there will be one.
So the question remains, can they exist until the end of the conflict ? That's posiibly another 1/2/3 years or more years. Could they raise, doubtful, sell something, possibly 🤔
I think anything from 3p upwards gets the vote now, delaying the sale only means they will get an even lower price as was the case with Amur Minerals .
SH ,No one's figures are right or wrong at this stage so all opinions are valid and welcome 👍.
I would much prefer yours than mine as I tend to er on the side of caution having been in this aim game for 25 years.
Naturally, if production ramps up to 200/000 as hoped,or even 100k,then you will get your multiples of £249mln and there's no reason to suggest, that in time, it won't. I was only referring to 15/17000bopd.
60/70k net to rkh would be a totally different ball game & a mkt cp of £1Billion+ is certainly possible then as we see with Ithaca, who produce 70,000.
A well presented post overall 👌 and I gave it a tick.
It's always good to disagree AA but I don't know what your disagreeing with because I never said or thought the share price is solely made up from production, that's why I stated each case was 'unique' !
If you read my post I was actually saying to SpaceHoppa that the shareprice is more complex than the bopd X oilprice and I gave numerous examples of mid-sized UK oil producers to back that point up.
My other main point is that, contrary to Spacehoppa's statement, you will not have a market cap multiples of £249mln on 15/17kbopd, regardless of anything.
I totally agree that tax royalties/reserves, location,production costs ect all play their part alongside production to determine the shareprice.
Thanks to Mogger; .
An interesting insight and one gets the impression Navitas are serious & very keen to get things moving. Roll on Funding & FID.
If we get FID & OM in 24,then a £200mln mkt cap is certainly not unreasonable ,that's around 32p, which, all things considered, would be a good result !
Totally agree Paul 👍, that's why I said each company is 'unique' but Rkh is not going to be valued at many multiples of the £249mln SpaceHoppa suggests on 15/17000bopd.It simply doesn't work like that in real life as you can see by the above uk mid-sized producers.
Ithaca Energy = Production 700,000
Market Cap 1.25B
Tullow Oil = Production 62000
Market Cap £549
Enq = Production 43,000
Market Cap. £325mln
Gulf Keystone
22,891 Bopd
Mkt Cp £261
Capricorn Energy = Production 30000
Market Cap £157mln
On the above basis, Rkh can be reasonably expected to be valued around £175/200 mln on production of around 15000/17500 bopd.
This is the reality & is very different from doing Daily Production X Oil Price !
Spacehoppa, That's all well and good posting figures like that and whilst I agree the shares will increase in line with profits- figures like that are a gross oversimplification because in reality it doesn't work like that because they will also be continually investing for the future (after debts paid) so it will never be total earnings @ high price = total profit like you portrayed.
For example ; let's look at Harbour last year, operating costs $16, $3.7Billion revenue @Oil price of $82.50, so massive profits expected yeah ? ..No, Profit after tax was $32 million.
Harbour is just an example, you can X bopd by oil price on any producer and the profits are rarely simply the figure of the two.
Of course, each company is unique and rkh will be vastly different to Harbour but the point is you can't simply pick a high oil price X it by bopd and expect that to be the profit, it rarely, if ever works like that as new capital is always required for growth & the future .
Also, the project won't start @ 50kbopd and they must pay the debts off first , so it could be 5/6 years ( depending ) before profits start rolling in and many investors want to see returns sooner and that's why a T/O may appeal to some holders.
As a guess, I think a more realistic profit figure for rkh would be around £100 to £150 mln a year as I take a more conservative $70 and production will not start a 50,000 and no one knows when this will be attained. I also expect new wells to be drilled as the basin opens up and more development costs once the debts been paid off so it's a gross oversimplification to simply times daily production by a high oilprice.
Personally, I will bank some profits along the way to production but may also keep some for production & beyond as once rkh get FID this becomes a compelling medium term investment and regardless of the lack of market participants - the shares will nevertheless increase in value, just not to the degree most of us would like or expect.
I did mention a while back that a T/O after OM & FID might be our best hope of realising some value as it's difficult to see how the few lse aim market participants can push rkh anywhere near where it should be after FID & OM.
The market system relies on participants buying good news & selling bad news but in the absence of participants and the ensuing exodus from both P.Is & IIs, good news now only gets a temporay mini-few days spike before selling off and no news gets sold regardless, just not as heavily as bad news so T/O might be the best option to realise capital gain.
The lack of liquidity & market value of many UK shares is of great concern to investors as the fleeing masses create lower shareprices,which only exacerbates the problem and makes even more investors leave and shareprices go even lower.
Even the very best UK shares ( Ftse100) have barely moved in a quarter of a century, valuations were similar in 1999.
Oscar, you don't seem to comprehend!
£46 Billion had been withdrawn from UK equities by private investors over recent years, add to that however many Billions institutions have pulled out and we have a rapidly dying market with few participants, this is very noticeable with Rkh and other aim shares that have so little volume, its barely a functioning market, especially for players who deal in size.
This exodus means less investors, lower volume & ultimately lower share prices so its important to be listed on the exchanges where you can attain the best valuation.
People have to buy shares for them to rise, the more market participants buying the higher the shareprice, if there are only a small number of market participants as is the case on aim, then the share price increase on good news will be limited.
We will more than likely see this limited market reaction on funding & fid later in the year because of the lack of market participants on lse.
It's not shares that follow charts, it's charts that follow shares !
They have their part to play for entry/exit points but its fundamentals that move shares not charts, that's not to say some traders can't make money using charts, some can but most won't.
We investors should use whatever tools help us to make money from this one-sided wild game of
chance. Each of us will have our own style of investing & no one style is right or wrong , be it technical/fundamental, short/long term, scalping,derivatives, ect, it doesn't matter; the only thing that matters is if you make any money, which as most of us know, is easier said than done.
Pavel, there is not enough buying volume to increase the price, its as simple as that !
A higher nickel price can only help hzm,.
Only a few weeks now for interim funding, which should give us a boost as it means a funding package is on the cards.
You can buy & sell commission free shares at a number of brokers nowadays( Trading 212/Plus 500 ect) so, it's possible to buy 1 or whatever shares without any commission costs.
There are a number of ridiculous buys today , someone bought 7/22/30 40/44 and then there were buys of 100/200 shares then more trades at 72/80/35 and a the big one for 372 shares.
My guess is college/uni kids having a flutter and its all pretty meaningless but the bid has ticked up so there are slighty more buys than sells although the volume is pretty low.