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I think its too risky to average down even at 1p as there's a fair chance holders could end up with nothing.
I shall keep my powder dry until a funding package is announced and then assess whether to put more money in to reduce my loss or not.
Naturally, existing holders all want funding at a
significantly higher price but is that just wishful thinking 🤔 .
The cornerstones could theoretically raise at £1.00 as much as they can 10p so its all fanciful.
The amount required is the same regardless of whether they do it at 1p, 10p or £1.00 but I would say it will be nearer 1p ( with 100/1 consolidation) than £1.00.
I think 10/20/30p ect is fanciful although I'd be happy with any of them in the current circumstances.
The company have told us whatever the outcome is unlikely to be good for existing holders and they usually understate on such statements- just as they did with the overrun, which is massively ( beyound comprehension) over their original estimates.
MV...There's an old adage about catching a falling knife and a try to catch it you most certainly have ....I first entered at 18 after the fall from 1.60, then increased by 25% the day before it fell to 9p and now it's 1p, I'm pretty much wiped out although to a much lesser degree than most here.
The only option for existing P.Is to recoup some capital would be to increase your holding 10/20 or whatever fold but who's gonna take that kind of risk & plough more money into this incompetent
& cluless company ?
Once funding is announced it may rise 50/100% as new players take positions to around £1.50/2.00 ( After the 100/1 consolidation) , that would be worth around 2p to existing holders so totally meaningless & irrelevant.
Must admit, I've never seen a placing done at hundreds of percent premium to current sp in 30 years. I would, of course, like to see this happen here but it's seems fanciful to think it can actually happen.
I do appreciate the current mkt cp is non- existant but I also find it hard to see any new investor willing to pay 100s of percent premium to invest and so does the market, hence the 1p share price.
In my experience the worst case scenario is generally the one that happens so I'm anticipating 1p funding along with a 100/1 share consolidation to keep the figures manageable.
Well, at 1p, I think it's fair to say the damage has already been done so the worst has already happened and shareholders have been wiped out.
I don't think anyone would expect funding to be done at less than 1p and is it reasonable to expect more than 1p on an asset sale ?
The 4th Investor scenario is the one which would offer holders the worst return as the previous poster rightly points out but have the other 3 got the appetite to go it alone ?
I think the sums are simply too big and they've already been burnt to a cinder so will be less risk averse.
Nickel's not exactly flavour of the month with Indonesia saturating the market to keep prices low but Hzm does have low production costs so it should be fundable at the
$17\18000 price Indonesia want to see.
This price makes sense as Indonesia want Nickel to be relatively cheap & sustainable for the long term and these prices wipe out many competitors & new projects but hzm is one of the few western companies that can live with these prices.
So what price funding ...... 1p 5p 10p ?
He's Back....The Publican simply could not resist his addiction to post here even after bidding us all a fond farewell.
I'm sure we'll see more of him now he's broke his word.
This board is his life and he cannot live without it.
Why in a week?
Its not sorted until the £600mln finance package is announced and no one expects that next week.
The company has sufficient capital till the end of Q1. This is next week, can we expect the asset sale or a placing and statement sayizng the asset sale is ongoing ?
Ralph; It's notoriously difficult to predict share price reactions to major events with any reliable accuracy so I don't devote much time to this side of things as the pricing is out of my hands.
My job is to position myself 'before' the event and then manage the position as the price reacts to the events by means of both long & short term trading.
I would, however,be looking somewhere around 33 to 39p on all 3 catalysts being successful but of course, it could be lower or higher,it's anyones guess and we will only know when it happens.
What I do know is that opening a basin with a 500mln barrel field in the Falklands will be Big news throughout the world and with the Russian situation and the dwindling, punitive north sea fields, a new, safe & reliable source of oil from a western friendly country will be in high demand with investors so we will have lots of new shareholders and a significantly higher shareprice.
Excellent news.. The Publican has Gone !
He says 'This really is goodbye and good riddance to aim'.... I say 'Thankfully this really is goodbye and good riddance to the Publican 😏
I'm not anticipating anything major on SL in any Navitas update at this moment in time.
We may get a FPSO LOI and/or a partner in the coming months but I don't see the big news landing till Q3/4.
The first big news will be Funding and FID will closely follow a month or so later, throw OM into this and we have 3 major catalysts to catapult the shares north in the later months of the year.
Funding SL may be more difficult than Shenandoah as there will certainly be less players willing to fund a project in disputed waters but with Navitas set to receive $750mln in the first year from Shenadoah @ $58 ( Oil is currently $85), there will be funders willing listen and prepared to back them based on their successful execution at Shenadoah and the attractive project economics of SL.
We can expect a complex funding package involving numerous players based on both credit & equity - although I don't expect Société General to head the funding this time because of the politics.
Production at Shenadoah is going to catapult Navitas to another level and its success is key to SL being funded & developed.
So we will continue treading water here until the Big announcement (funding), once this lands, FID will quickly follow so any selling out on the funding rise will be disappointed to see higher prices a month or so later on FID. Larger players can be expected to take positions on the certainly of FID as the analysts do the figures on expected returns.
All being well, OM should fund Rkh's share thats not covered by the loans and keep us going to first oil without any dilution.
So all looking good for Q3/4 and my accumulation quitely continues.
We have to trust in Gideon Tadmor. He's the man who can pull this off. Already known in the industry as a Pioneer for bringing the Leviathan discovery to production with Delek, where he was CEO.
He then founded Navitas and pulled another monster rabbit out the hat with Shenadoah and he then pulled yet another out with Sea Lion.
The man is unstoppable !!! And it's him we are effectively investing in through Rockhopper.
So we can be confident this is the man to pull this off, it's what he does !
There is no doubt he will be revelling in overcoming all the challenges SL faces and his renkown determination & business acumen will get us to production.
In Gideon we Trust 👊
That's interesting TNM, let's hope that wasn't money they earmarked for a share of SL and thus part of the overall finance package.
There's no saying this is the case and they may not be interested in SL but even if this is the case, suspension is potentially only temporary and they only need around $400mln to kick the basin off but the sooner Israel's stop their offensive in Gazza the better for everyone.
My gut feeling is Navitas have no intention of giving away 30% (175mln barrels) of their own share for nothing and will look to fund the project on its economic merits. They will only accept a partner if the partner pays to farm in as well as sharing the costs. I may be wrong but that's what I think.
Funding is the Big one, can Nav pull it off 🤔.
Its a big ask for a company of Nav's size but they appear outwardly confident inspite of being refused UK backed bonds.
Once funding is secured- FID becomes a mere formality, so this is, for me, by far the issue of most importance as it makes or breaks the project.
As we know, many banks won't lend because of the disputed waters issue and a number don't fund oil projects any longer but there are banks & Instuitions that will still fund oil projects so its these that Nav will turn to, likely mostly in Israel, for funding alongside some bond issues.
The improved project economics look extremely robust at current prices which should be a big plus for any lenders and Nav may also seek a partner (Delek) to mitigate the risk if terms can be agreed. This would be a prudent move as opening a new Billion barrel basin is a big ask for two companies of Nav's/Rkh's size & resources but I do think/hope they can pull it off and I eagerly await funding news-which should come before FID.
Dodge; You will only see bigger sales when we get some tangible news, like Funding ,FID & OM.
These are the 3 main catalysts that should drive the sp north in the second half of the year.
At £83mln, Rkh is arguably, fairly valued at this moment in time,considering there is no SL Funding/FID or decision on the OM appeal.
When there is the shares will rise accordingly on each piece of news.
The shares have performed reasonably well since the fund raise. They're up almost 100% and the warrants are in the money by 40%.
So I don't expect any significant moves until we have significant news.
Personally, I would rather the sp slides down unitl we get big news so I can continue accumalating @ cheaper prices but my accumulation will continue regardless of cheaper or dearer prices - right up to the first big rns.
The oilprice is looking good and we can expect funding 'before' FID,also an FPSO LOI could land anytime as could a partner (Delek),so its just a matter of waiting for the first big piece of the puzzle to land, which should kick start, what should be a protracted ascent north on the 3 main catalysts in 2024/ or early 25.
Also the board have made prudent decisions on OM, striking a £100mln cash deal on conclusion was good business at this moment in time.
Critism is ok but it has to be factual & balanced so statements like ' Premier was a poor choice', just aren't true !
Premier wasn't a poor choice, it was the only choice !!
Rkh contacted 100 companies and got 1 reply and that was Premier so let's put that often stated myth to bed.
Premier was the only option due to SL being in disputed waters.
Sam's played a blinder getting Navitas on board and retaining 35% since Harbour bailed.
We were dead & buried when they bailed and now a few years on, we're on the verge of FID, so credit where credits due 👏
Publican is right, it's already happened, 97% is lost, what's another 1 or 2% loss on any finance deal ?
Publican is clearly deriving immense pleasure from this catastrophe and cannot gloat enough on our demise as his postings clearly demonstrate.
Well, at least this disaster has brought pleasure & purpose to one person so enjoy your time at the top Publican and carry on preaching and gloating to holders here that have lost 97% of their investment (soon to be 99.9).
Maybe after this you can derive pleasure from something morally better than private investors being wiped out but I doubt it as you are 100% in your element here and totally addicted to the complete & total demise of hzm shareholders.
And don't respond with yr nonsense about this being some kind of experiment or that you are only devoting your time to advise shareholders on the perils of investing blah blah blah...just continue Gloating until yr hearts content, which seems to be never as you are relentless in your depraved & warped mission here.
Everyone complains about Godders moaning and attention seeking but you are all feeding the baby by responding to his sad pathetic ramblings.
Ignore the fool and he will, in time give up his pathetic posts. Its that simple.
The Fool has nothing to contribute, ignore every post he makes and the board will be better for it.
Simples.