Member Info for TheBlackWolf

"The price has also surged from the 8p level after I highlighted the potential for Chariot to hit pay dirt last autumn (‘Bargain Shares: Speculative high return trading opportunity’, 5 Nov 2021). It could double again once investors cotton onto the implications of the latest drilling news. Buy".

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/01/10/bargain-shares-hitting-pay-dirt/

No one is guessing, they have clearly stated their intentions in the circular.

“It is expected that in due course the Directors will seek to return value to Shareholders once a form of return of value has been determined by the Board, mindful of the Company’s existing operating businesses and future cash requirements to meet running costs”.

“The Company intends to return any surplus cash, whether from the sale of the Consideration Shares or from its operating business to shareholders as quickly and as tax efficiently as possible”.

The whole point of this deal is that the Directors see “significant potential for future value accretion” considering the recent erosion in the share price of Block and Afterpay over the past few months.

They too have significant skin in the game and are clearly committed to the future of Block. Why would they sell at the lows when fintech has been hit so hard?

Obviously, there are no guarantees, but to do so would be completely illogical. All we have to go off is what they have communicated to us and rationale.

If they wanted a quick exit, they would’ve taken the independent external valuation. They aren’t trying to purposely screw over shareholders…

Congratulations to all holders! I held at 3p once upon a time, I just managed to get myself back in at 10.4.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/01/06/unravelling-thinksmart-s-share-price-decline/

Simon Thompson has posted regarding Thinksmart and outlines the situation as a buying opportunity.

Before this turns into bashing Simon Thompson for posting a 'strong buy' recommendation in November, remember the following:

1) He doesn't have a crystal ball. The deal we were 'expecting' was never guaranteed.

2) He has been covering Thinksmart since 13.5p if you didn't take profit, that is on you. If you bought in too high or with too much size that is on you.

I would put the selling down to Afterpay's recent SP decline and the general market sentiment. There is also a regulatory delay with the Bank of Spain, however, analysts suggest this poses minimal risk to the transaction closing. "We continue to believe the risks of the transaction closing are minimal," RBC Capital Markets analyst Chami Ratnapala said in a brief client note. In addition to this, Simon Thompson, a big advocate of Thinksmart is away on annual leave and hasn't published any recent updates.

The same thing happened last week, albeit a much larger drop which led Thinksmart to publish an RNS communicating that there was no reason for the drop. In my eyes, this is a top-up opportunity, which I have taken advantage of.

It seems this cycle of selling off and popping up will continue until we get an update regarding Clearpay's recent performance (which I expect to be good). Irrespective of that the current value sits around 130-150p+ (depending on which analyst you listen to) and the longer Thinksmart hold their Clearpay stake this value grows (agreed upon by most analysts).

With a business that is growing quickly (and benefits from Omicron/potential covid restrictions in retail), a high likelihood of potential buyout news in the next few months, and a discounted share price, this for me is a no-brainer.

I have every faith in the Block/Square acquisition of Afterpay completing. It just makes so much sense. They have put an attractive offer forward, both sets of shareholders want the acquisition to go ahead, both parties' business models strive under the acquisition (Thinksmart/Clearpay benefiting too), both parties are facing harsh competition from the likes of Paypal, Jack Dorsey has stepped down as Twitter CEO to focus on Block/Square etc.

Even if the acquisition failed the current value of Clearpay remains the same and Thinksmart has their call/put arrangement exercisable in 2023/2024. With BNPL still growing this is a WIN/WIN in my eyes.

As always stick to your own plan and do your own research.

Buy now pay later firm Afterpay Ltd (APT.AX) said on Tuesday its $29 billion buyout by Block Inc (SQ.N), previously known as Square, got overwhelming support from shareholders, with 99.79% of the proxy votes cast in favour of the deal.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/afterpay-gets-shareholder-nod-block-inc-buyout-majority-proxy-votes-favour-deal-2021-12-13/

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2021/08/02/thinksmart-strong-buy-opportunity-squaring-the-circle/

ST just published a 'buy' recommendation outlining the recent pullbacks as repeat buying opportunities.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2021/07/27/bargain-shares-sylvania-platinum-s-repeat-buying-opportunity/

Simon Thompsons' tip was an Alpha article too (the most expensive subscription). There will be many subscribers who only pay for the digital or hard copies and have no idea of TEK. Once the half-year results are released in mid-August Simon Thompson will release a write-up for digital/standard subscriptions (that is how Alpha works (early access). I would imagine he will maintain a ‘Strong Buy’ recommendation considering the recent update regarding Lucyd’s pre-money valuation of $20m. I can see 24/25p being hit during August.

It depends on what your investment aim is. If you are holding in the hope of a Clearpay buyout then Afterpay’s share price has a direct impact on the end valuation.

“Afterpay’s share price has very positive implications on the conservative valuation of ThinkSmart’s 10 per cent stake in Clearpay. That’s because Afterpay has a call option (exercisable from 23 August 2023) to buy ThinkSmart’s 10 per cent holding. ThinkSmart has a put option (exercisable from 23 February 2024) to sell its stake to Afterpay, too. The price is calculated on agreed valuation principles that were used in determining the carrying value of the stake in ThinkSmart’s accounts. One of the principles is the market capitalisation of Afterpay.”

Even if you are holding short-term Thinksmart tends to track Afterpay’s share price movements. So, any positive news from Afterpay is beneficial to Thinksmart’s share price.

For those unclear about the technology behind the Afterpay card:

“The Afterpay Card has replaced the barcode system of shopping in-store. It is a contactless Mastercard stored in your Google Pay or Apple Wallet and is super easy to set up and use. With Afterpay Card, you just App it, Add it, and Tap it to pay in 4 interest-free instalments.”

“The product enables customers to use the buy now, pay later service regardless of whether the merchant has an agreement with Afterpay.”

This really is a game changer…

“Afterpay Ltd has dramatically expanded its ‘one-time card’ that US customers can use, onboarding big-name merchants covering almost half the online shopping activity in the US.”

“The buy now, pay later provider revealed Wednesday 23rd June that the likes of Amazon, Nike, Target Corporation, Sephora, Macy’s and Dell Technologies are now available through its app.”

“Customers can now generate a single-use card to enter at checkout for any of these brands. The transaction is then facilitated by Afterpay, with all the usual benefits of instalment payments.”

“Nordstrom Inc, Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc, CVS Health Corp, Kroger Co, Victoria’s Secret and Yeti Holdings Inc were also onboarded during the expansion.”

Fantastic news, I look forward to the Q3 update. Considering MHC have only been providing on the boots deal since April/May, and the demand for the kits is still growing, revenue growth with be in the 000’s %.

There is still the possibility that Afterpay buyout Thinksmarts minority interest in Clearpay prior to the August 2023 call option. With Clearpay being one of the fastest-growing BNPL companies in Europe, the longer Afterpay wait the more valuable Thinksmarts interest in Clearpay becomes. BNPL companies have now diversified away from clothing into other sectors e.g. furniture and flight tickets. I struggle to see the BNPL model slowing down over the next few years and believe the probability of a buyout is high.

All markets are down due to inflation worries. Increasing inflation tends to impact 'growth' stocks the most (technology being one of the main sectors that are exposed). This is what contributed to the recent decline in Afterpay and Thinksmart's share price.

It's a shame we have no visibility past the 100+ unit mark on the boots ticker. However, considering we haven't dropped below the 100+ mark in 1-week I would estimate we are closer to the 150 area now.

Always a comforting sign. This and the reference to "significant sequential revenue growth in H2" is enough to warrant a top-up from me.

I have topped up here, it's a great buying opportunity. I'm sure Simon Thompson will do a write-up for TSL next week. He mentioned in a recent webinar (27th April) that TSL was one of his best small-cap technology plays and offered significant value at 74p.

Boots ticker displaying 92 test kits bought in the last 24 hrs

Simon Thompson - Strong buy write up in the Investors' Chronicle

Couldn't agree more. SP should rebound, especially considering APT was up 7%.