Member Info for TheBlackWolf

Depends on your view, in my opinion:

A) They have a track record of growing and disposing of parts of the business. Most recently, to Saltus, a consideration representing a premium of 211% of Tavistock's market cap at the time. I see the strategic refocus as a repeat opportunity

B) The directors have significant skin in the game and have been buying since late 2024 and into 2025.

C) They have already made a £2.1m provision in the 2024 accounts to account for this. For 5 portfolios to finish in the 99th/100th percentile, I imagine Tavistock has good reason to support their case; nevertheless, a provision has been made. We shall see.

So, when a company (with no debt) has cash that almost exceeds its market cap, you don’t believe there is value?

It played out the same way in 2021/22, albeit under different market conditions, and it will happen again.

Same old story here, I expect a rise in the next few months.

Market Cap today of £18.30m.

With Cash and cash equivalents on 31 March 2025 of £7.40m.

And due £10.3mn (2.3p) of contingent cash consideration from the Saltus disposal on 2 December 2025.

• Direct share buying

• 71 per cent discount to sum-of-the-parts estimate

• Net cash set likely to exceed share price before year-end

"Frankly with Tavistock’s shares trading on a discount of more than 70 per cent to my spot sum-of-the-parts estimate, it’s difficult to envisage anything other than a profitable outcome. Next month’s results will highlight the scale of the undervaluation. Buy".

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/b4e7b3fe-9257-4aa9-9b28-cfff33bf8070

Simon Thompson picks TAVI in his Bargain Shares portfolio for 2025, giving it the highest bargain rating out of the entire portfolio.

Hopefully sentiment changes here soon.

Onwards and upwards.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/ce285997-6418-575f-82f3-a3ddaad21861

I wouldn't worry about a de-listing below the current share price.

These shares are trading at a big discount, and the NAV is c.10p/share. Trading at such a discount isn't unique to TAVI, the AIM market isn't fairing too well currently but sentiment will eventually change.

At the end of the day:

• Sentiment on AIM is poor, but interest rates are coming down and AIM tends to perform better during lower interest rate periods.

• The uncertainty around the Titan dispute is ongoing and further impacts the negative sentiment.

Nevertheless:

• TAVI is making good acquisitions and disposals.

• The retained businesses are profitable.

• The current market cap is potentially covered by cash and contingent earn-outs.

• Management is buying at 3.75p and doing buybacks in the 4-5p/share range, they clearly see value above that and have the most visibility.

• Management has substantial skin in the game.

• TAVI increased its dividend.

The above are all good signs; for me, the positives outweigh where we are currently. But as always stick to your own plan and DYOR.

Those trades were part of the Share Buyback.

Today's trades, priced at 5.09, account for 51,164,178 of the 67,991,382 Buyback Shares from employees and advisers seeking to reduce their holdings in the Company.

Would you look at that for timing

From a quick look at your posts, all you do is shout about placings and de-ramp.

Why would a company with its market cap covered by cash, that has turned profitable, and communicated its plans to do a share buyback possibly do a placing?

Especially when the CEO Ben Raven and Chairman Oliver Cooke own 12.8% and 5.56% of the shares.

UBER currently trading at all-time highs.

Hopefully, the US market holds up and we could be looking at great market conditions for the BOLT IPO in 2025.

Investors Chronicle write up

£37.75mn disposal

Net cash now exceeds share price

Deferred contingent consideration potentially exceeds market capitalisation

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/3f5a34ea-4316-5df4-9f7a-72fa81dfd51a

“The group’s closing net cash of £2.6mn has also been boosted by the receipt of a £5mn deferred earn-out payment from Titan Wealth on the multi-asset manager disposal. Assuming an identical third and final earn-out payment of £5mn later this year, and total cash receipts of at least £5.6mn from the LEBC disposal – in line with expectations of LEBC’s majority shareholder – then Tavistock’s cash pile could balloon to £18.2mn”.

Market cap is now £17.37m.

Number of potential transactions being considered, including a possible disposal of part of the Group's business to Saltus confirmed. Clear interest in a growing business.

“Trading in first half of current financial year significantly ahead of equivalent period last year”.

“Operating profit of £0.9mn reverses £0.5mn loss”.

Chief executive Brian Raven holds 12.6 per cent.

Regarding the termination with Titan:

Titan lost money in the past three years, down an average of 4.4%, according to Morningstar figures. Titan has now ‘strongly denied’ the decision had anything to do with underperformance. Titan also said it expects to pay no further sums to Tavistock under the initial distribution agreement.

That seems reasonable to terminate for sustained underperformance and I doubt that is grounds for Titan to withhold a £5mn deferred earn-out payment.

Most successful trading year to date.
The interim dividend increased by 40%.
2 directors buying at these levels.
Trading at a discount.

All looking good for TAVI. Hopefully, news is on the horizon.

It is concerning how well Thinksmart is holding up at this price level, despite Block dropping heavily. Block is $58 per share at the time I am writing this post.

As communicated on the Tue, 29th Mar 2022 RNS:

"ThinkSmart continues to hold a position of 618,750 shares in Block, Inc (NYSE: SQ) ("Block") which based on a closing price of US$138.12 on 28 March 2022 and 1.31 USD: 1 GBP is valued at £65.2m equivalent to 61 pence per ThinkSmart share".

This represented an anomalous discount compared to the Thinksmart price at the time.

However, according to my calculations based on the above logic, we are now almost at fair value. With Block @ $58 per share = Thinksmart valued at circa 26p per share. This doesn't factor in the drop in USD/GBP.

At our latest valuation in the RNS above, USD/GBP was 1.31 USD : 1 GBP, at the time of writing it is 1.23 USD : 1 GBP. With GBP weakening and our 618,750 Block shares being valued in dollars this means we lose further value.

My thoughts are either shareholders are holding strong for the dividend or a further downward move is coming. I am a holder of Thinksmart and have been for a long time. However, historically we have traded at a large discount. Also on 12/05/2022 when Block dropped to a low of $65 per share Thinksmart dropped to a low of 19p per share, despite being below this for the 3 trading days we continue to hold.

Thoughts?

DYOR

Simon Thompson reiterates a 'buy' recommendation in yesterday's Investors chronicle article.

"Tavistock’s advisory business is still worth £58mn (10p a share) as a standalone entity, hence my sum-of-the-parts valuation of 16.5p a share. Buy."

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/05/26/bargain-shares-playing-the-value-rotation/

Tekcapital (TEK:32p), an investment company focused on food technology, autonomous vehicles, smart eyewear and respiratory medical devices, offers multiple share price catalysts.

Tekcapital’s share price trades 20 per cent below my net asset value (NAV) estimate of 40p using historic valuations at the last funding rounds of its investee companies. However, SP Angel calculates that the “true value of Tekcapital’s shares today is certainly at least 50p and in the near term is projected to be closer to 60p.”

A successful Nasdaq IPO of e-glasses company Innovative Eyewear would help to materially narrow the valuation gap. Innovative Eyewear’s SEC filing on 29 March 2022 indicates a pre-IPO valuation of $34mn-$46mn and $42-58mn post IPO. This implies a $27mn-$37mn (15p to 20p a share) value for Tekcapital’s shareholding, a massive premium to the $16mn valuation at the last funding round. It’s not the only catalyst, either.

Firstly, Salarius, a food technology business that holds a patented process to produce, Microsalt, a new natural, non-GMO, kosher, low-sodium nanoparticle-sized salt, has expanded its roll-out of SaltMe! crisps across 2,200 Kroger stores in the US. The company also reports “significant sales growth through Amazon”, and is now rolling out its offering to foodservice operators. TekCapital’s 76 per cent stake in Microsalt is worth around $4.37mn based on the last funding round.

In addition, portfolio company Guident, a developer of remote monitoring and control software that improves the safety of autonomous vehicles (AV) and land-based delivery robots, has entered a strategic alliance with Perrone Robotics, a leading provider of AV kits and full autonomy software. The plan is to integrate Guident’s remote monitoring and teleoperation solution with Perrone’s TONY kit for highly AVs.

It makes both strategic and commercial sense to do so. That’s because deployment of safe & reliable AVs requires a fast, reliable network coupled with low-latency, remote monitoring and control software, to facilitate fleet level management of multiple, concurrently operating AVs. By combining the two technologies, it will enable municipalities and fleet operators to commercially deploy Level-4 autonomy AV shuttles across a wide variety and quantity of vehicles.

Analysts at Allied Market Research estimate that the global AV market is set to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39 per cent to be worth $556bn by 2026, buoyed by the accelerated roll-out of land-based delivery drones and demand for lower cost deliveries. The Covid-19 pandemic is driving demand for contactless delivery, too. The total value of Guident’s patents is $28mn, although they were last valued at $22mn in TekCapital’s accounts, so monetising their value in this way will help to narrow the valuation gap.

TekCapital’s has risen 8 per cent since I included the shares in my 2022 Bargain Shares Portfolio, and I can see 50 per cent more upside from this point.

Tier 1 upgrade from Bank of America - suggest the stock is due for ~70% rally

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/11/bank-of-america-upgrades-block-says-struggling-stock-formerly-known-as-square-due-for-70percent-rally.html

Favour*

With 99.79% voting in favor of the deal

Simon Thompson has already published an article after returning from holiday. He suggested it is a 'buying opportunity.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/01/06/unravelling-thinksmart-s-share-price-decline/